PGF Season 3, Day 3 (Wednesday) Fantasy Predictions!

It’s hard to believe we’re halfway throught the season. We’ve seen some great matches. Last night may have been the best night in PGF history – awesome action, great interaction with the fans through the comments, great video production. It had it all. Now we know a lot more about these competitors. I did this first draft yesterday morning and will likely edit it and add more explanation/analysis as the goes on. We have some highly anticipated competitors facing each other in what some would consider a “must win” to stay relevant in the PGF season ranking (e.g. Jeo Ortiz v Dane Leak). With half the season done, we could see a lot of urgency bordering on desperation in competitors with lower point totals. Coach Sean Applegate made a bold prediction yesterday that all five on his active roster competitors would make the finale, leaving only three spots up for grabs in the other teams. With the way things are shaping up, he might not be wrong. So, again, this the urgency for competitors as they go on in the regular season might resemble the urgency they exhibit as the six minutes of their matches wind down – that last minute or so is always a sprint.

But, right now (~0955 CST), I need to hop on the Dream Show Live and show Stephen Eakin how I’m right and he’s wrong. As I said, I’ll get back to the blog post for edits and updated analysis after the show.

Sorry, work and life happened. No updates. Good luck to all of you, except for Skaff – I hope Skaff gets skunked.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $25; faces – David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [KILL]; Isaac “the Wandering Grappler” Stackhouse (purple) [KILL]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [BREAK] – 12 points. Up until last night, there was a question of whether anyone could submit the Quadzilla. Dane Leak answered that question with a bolt-cutter triangle (his signature move). Now that we know Quadzilla can fall prey to a triangle, you have to bet Elijah gets that kill. Isaac has been on the receiving ends of kills from the top competitors – if Elijah wants to maintain his top spot, he’ll have to fight for that kill again. While I’m betting on kills from Elijah, we saw both Noah Randolph and Josh Gibbs make us wonder if we could see Elijah’s first draw, with the former forcing Elijah to settle for a break (Gibbs now entering a select few PGF competitors to do so). Jeo Ortiz should provide us with a great match to watch against Elijah – with a similar build and skill set, Ortiz could get lucky and find a way to upset the Elijah. Still, you have to put the Bad Guy on your roster.

Jeovany Ortiz (black) – $21; faces Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Elijah Carlton (brown) [LOSS]; Kevin “Beuhrik” Beuhring (blue) [BREAK] – 3 points. Jeo came in with a lot of hype, but has underperformed in the first half of the PGF regular season. Now Jeo faces a very tough night. Dane Leak has either submitted his opponents or forced a draw. Even in bad situations, he’s a heartbeat away from recovering his guard (and threatening with his triangle). After Leak, Jeo faces his biggest threat of the season in Elijah, a competitor who has beaten him before. Jeo wants the opportunity to settle the score, but you don’t bet against Elijah until someone beats Elijah. Finally, Kevin Beuhring is a threat to anyone. I’m picking the black belt to win the leglock battle, but the Beuhrik could definitely pull an upset. Given his schedule today, Jeo isn’t a smart pick for your roster.

Caleb McAllister (black) – $20; faces – Kevin Primeau (brown) [DRAW]; Josh Gibbs (purple) [KILL]; Noah Randolph (purple) [KILL] – 12 points. Caleb and Primeau were both favorites to make the playoffs and to finish high up in the rankings. Both will be gunning for this match. Caleb has a lot of tricks up his sleeve (dozens if you believe his comments to our PGF accouncer Stephen Eakin), but Primeau has consistently proven he’s the toughest competitor in PGF history. With both skillsets and toughness of both competitors, I have to call it a draw for fantasy analysis. Caleb then faces two competitors who just faced Elijah Carlton last night. Noah and Gibbs both forced Elijah to late finishes with Noah getting triangled in the last 45 seconds and Gibbs forcing the arm bar for fewer points in the last 30 seconds. Caleb has a strategy for this season of the PGF – I’m not sure exactly what it is, but one has to believe it includes getting kills on both Noah and Gibbs.

Dane Leak (black) – $20; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [KILL]; Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black)[KILL]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [KILL] – 18 points.

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) – $19; faces Manning Leverett (purple) [BREAK]; Noah Randolph (purple) [BREAK]; and Kevin “Beuhrick” Beuhring (blue) [BREAK] – 9 points. As I said in yesterday’s post, I think many competitors including the Elbow Genie have seen the level of competition this season makes breaks a more than satisfactory outcome. This paradigm suits the Elbow Genie’s skills just fine.

Eric Longar (black) – $18; faces Tyler Woolsey (purple) [LOSS]; Mario Gaor (brown) [DRAW]; “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (brown) – $18; faces Caleb McAllister (black) [DRAW]; “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [KILL]; Mario Gaor (brown) [KILL] – 12 points. In a battle for Kevin supremacy in the PGF, the Liquid Terminator will find a way to win.

“Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) – $17; faces Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (brown) []; Eric Longar (black) [KILL]; Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL] – 12 points.

David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) – $16; faces Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (black) [LOSS]; Manning Leverett (purple) [DRAW]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [BREAK] – 3 points.

Mario Gaor (brown) – $16; faces Eric Longar (black) [BREAK]; Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (brown) [DRAW]; Noah Randolph (purple) [BREAK] – 6 points.

Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) – $16; faces Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL]; Carlos Andres (purple) [DRAW]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS] – 6 points.

Tyler Woolsey (purple) – $16; faces Eric Longar (black) [BREAK]; Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [DRAW] – 3 points.

Carlos Andres (purple) – $15; faces Isaac “the Wandering Grappler” Stackhouse (purple) [LOSS]; Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [LOSS]; “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Noah Randolph (purple) – $15; faces Jonathan “the Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; Mario Gaor (brown) [KILL]; Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS] – 6 points.

Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring (blue) – $14; faces Josh Gibbs (purple) [BREAK]; Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS] – 3 points.

Manning Leverett (purple) – $14; faces Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [DRAW]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [KILL] – 6 points.

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $14; faces Josh Gibbs (purple) [KILL]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [DRAW] – 6 points.  

Josh Gibbs (purple) – $13; faces Kevin “Beuhrick” Beuhring (blue) [LOSS]; Caleb Mcallister (black) [LOSS]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Isaac Stackhouse (purple) – $12; faces Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL]; Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (black) [LOSS]; and Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL]v– 12 points.

Marcus Elkins (blue) – $12; faces Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [LOSS]; Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [LOSS]; and David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

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