By the end of Week 3, we will be more than halfway through the season. With 60% done, it’ll be harder for those outside the playoff hunt to make it into the top eight. Still, with a hypothetical 21-point day (a kill in less than one minute for each of their three matches) possible, no player has ever been eliminated from the playoffs until the final day of the season. With your PGF 8 point leader, Christos Papadelos, only having 20 points, any competitor could hypothetically go from literal zero to hero if they had a perfect day and the top competitors didn’t add any points.
All this said, it seems like the free agent situation is truly shaping this season. Team Dollamur augmented their squads with Derek Rayfield and Spenser Ortiz in Week 2, both of whom added submissions to their team’s point totals. These free agent adds helped Team Dollamur rocket to the top of the standings with a fair lead.
Now, the Alabamma Twisters who came raging on to the PGF scene have suffered two setbacks to their roster. But they’ve picked up top-prospect free agents in Sergio Ardila and Dominic Mejia. The Twisters now have a lineup of Raphael Ferreira, Matt Masch, Kris Olivo, Sergio Ardila, and Dominic Mejia – seriously, these five could have been the top picks of the draft themselves. The Twisters have backed into a super team. That said, the Editorial Board at Eggheadwarrior.com would normally stand on folks’ desks until they picked up Ardila and Mejia since they are both going for a bargain $900 a piece (you get a discount since it’s their first week and they won’t be this low again), but both seem to be facing very serious lineups. They’re both likely very rosterable, but not the no-brainer locks they might normally be. With their budget prices, they’re worth a risk despite their opponents this week.
Another big factor this week is the concept of regression to the mean. Basically, this concept helps explain the Madden curse. Players are chosen for the cover of the Madden football video game because they’ve had a breakout season. Well, when a player overperforms, they will generally regress to the mean (or their average) eventually. So, those players picked for the Madden cover, more often than not, underperform compared to their breakout seasons that got them that cover. It’s not a curse, rather, it’s just probabilities and stats. Week 3 of PGF Season 8 could have some clear examples of regressing to the mean (whether that be having more or less points than the player did the first two weeks). We’ll address this phenomenon more below.
SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to have to offset the expense with budget players)
Christos Papadelos (Dollamur) – $1350 – 3 points faces Anthony Molina Valdes (New Hope Kings), Nick Sahf (Tropic Thunders) (BREAK), Raphael Ferreira (Alabama Twisters). Christos is riding high. His knowledge and brains applied to his skill have paid off for fantasy managers who have put him on their roster. It’s more likely that he gets one submission this week, Christos had a great week 2, putting him atop the leader board. Now that he’s facing top competition, he’s likely to regress to the mean with one submission. He has the potential to get breaks in all three matches, but the probabilities would say only one. Papadelos in that #1 spot has the target now on his back – and points don’t come easy for the guy with the target on his back.
Kris Olivo (Alabama Twisters) – $1350 – 6 points faces JJ Bowers (Tropic Thunders)(DRAW), Juan Martinez v (New Hope Kings)(BREAK), Spenser Ortiz (Dollamur)(BREAK). The most interesting man of the PGF batted 1,000 last week with three breaks. Olivo is one of the biggest and most skilled grapplers of the season. Olivo could also regress to the mean and only get 3 points, but he finds a way to get 2/3 today.
Dom Lobo (New Hope Kings) – $1200 – 6 points faces Brady Branscum (Dollamur), Raphael Ferreira (Alabama Twisters), CJ Murdock (Tropic Thunders). Ok, he either gets a KILL against Branscum or a break against him and CJ. Egghead needs to stop underestimating Lobo. He’s a premium price now, but seems to be proving he deserves the higher price tag. The problem is he’s such a nice, unassuming young man when not on the mats. But fantasy managers need to look at his determined face when he’s facing an opponent to know he means business.
Anthony Molina Valdes (New Hope Kings) – $1175 – 3 points faces Matthew Masch (Alabama Twisters)(BREAK), Christos Papadelos (Dollamur)(DRAW), Dominic Mejia (Alabama Twisters)(DRAW). In week 2 Molina Valdes was leg locked by a Kings Way student; now he faces two Kings Way teammates and a Combat Jiu Jitsu World champion. While Molina Valdes has found his way to multiple Elbow Genie points in the first two weeks, Week 3 is likely going to be a long day at the office for Molina Valdes. He’s probably not worth the premium price considering this murderer’s row of opponents.
Zack Schneider (Tropic Thunders) – $1150 – 0 points faces Matthew Masch (Alabama Twisters), Derek Rayfield (Dollamur), Jett Thompson (New Hope Kings). Schneider is undersized compared to all three of his opponents. They all propose different challenges for any opponent. This week, we find out if Day 1 was an aberration or if Schneider is going to make a run for the playoffs. We’re all big fans and want to cheer for the veteran family man; however, with his performances thus far, he’s not worth the premium price tag.
Mike John (Alabama Twisters) – $1125 (INACTIVE) – If you put an inactive player on your roster, you deserve ridicule.
Landon Elmore (Dollamur) – $1100 – 6 points faces Anthony Gojani (New Hope Kings)(BREAK), CJ Murdock (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK), Sergio Ardila (Alabama Twisters)(DRAW). Elmore had a breakout day in Week 2, garnering three submissions and two money bags. He’s a dangerous leg locker. Elmore will likely get Gojani, will have a tougher time with CJ, but will not get Ardila. Ardila was a black belt when Elmore was 8 years old; that’s just too much seasoning to get leg locked by someone who can’t get into the after party.
Average – (the players who fill your roster almost exactly on budget)
Matt Masch (Alabama Twisters) – $1075 – 9 pionts faces Zack Schneider (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK), Anthony Gojani (New Hope Kings)(BREAK), Brady Branscum (Dollamur)(BREAK). Masch hasn’t had his breakout day yet, but it comes today. The CJJ Worlds champ will find a way to get three submissions and find his way near the top of the leader board.
Raphael Ferreira (Alabama Twisters) – $1075 – 6 points faces John Chandler (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK), Dominic Lobo (New Hope Kings)(BREAK), Christos Papadelos (Dollamur)(DRAW). The break against Chandler is almost guaranteed as long as Rafa doesn’t get lulled into the trap of trying to get a RNC on Chandler (sorry, John). A sub against Lobo is a harder feat, but Rafa needs to have a big day if he wants to make a run at the playoffs. Papadelos v Rafa could easily be a preview of the playoffs. Whoever wins that match has a real argument for PGF Season 8 super star status.
Jett Thompson (New Hope Kings) – $1050 – 6 points faces Spenser Ortiz (Dollamur)(BREAK), Sergio Ardila (Alabama Twisters)(*shrugs shoulders*), Zack Schneider (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK). Jett has to be feeling a sense of urgency. He only has 3 points with 40% of the season complete. It’s hard having the biggest target on your back for being the top pick, but now that the King’s Way duo and Rafa have taken more of the spotlight, Jett could go back to his subbing ways. His opponents won’t make it easy, but you have to roster Jett at a price of only $1050.
JJ Bowers (Tropic Thunders) – $975 – 6 points faces Kristian Olivo (Alabama Twisters)(DRAW), Brady Branscum (Dollamur)(KILL), Anthony Molina Valdes (New Hope Kings)(DRAW). JJ has to have the match against Branscum circled, expecting to get points. That stylistic matchup should play into JJ’s front headlock game and he can take out the best competitors with his anaconda. In his other two matches, JJ faces two of the best leg lockers in the season. He might be able to grip it and rip it if he can get a hold of them, but it’s not a high percentage shot.
Derek Rayfield (Dollamur) – $950 – 6 points – Juan Martinez V (Kings)(BREAK), Zach Schneider (Thunders)(BREAK), Dominic Mejia (Twisters)(DRAW/LOSS). Rayfield presents an interesting problem for competitors: his size and his flexibility. He finds unorthodox plays and often finds a way to make them end in submissions. He’s a solid play this week.
BUDGET PLAYERS (possible bargains that can help you save money for those premium players)
Spenser Ortiz (Dollamur) – $925 – 3 points faces Jett Thompson (New Hope Kings)(DRAW/LOSS), John Chandler (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK), Kristian Olivo (Alabama Twisters)(DRAW/LOSS). Ortiz came off the free agent waiver wire and got a submission for his team in his first week. He also showed some great wrestling/jiu jitsu, taking Rafa’s back with a nice arm drag/switch when Rafa raced after him. If Ortiz has a solid leg lock game, he’ll likely get a sub against Chandler. His other two matches are not great matchups for him.
Armin Bruni – $925 (Inactive/Free Agent) – Inactive, might see time if there’s an injury.
CJ Murdock (Tropic Thunders) – $900 – 0 points faces Dominic Mejia (Alabama Twisters), Landon Elmore (Dollamur), Dominic Lobo (New Hope Kings). CJ has a great gritty style which got the admiration of Coach Drysdale in Week 2. It’ll be interesting to see how he navigates Lobo’s guard. But one has to think the two Kings Way teammates have the upper hand in their matches against CJ.
Sergio Ardila (Alabama Twisters) – $900 – 3 points faces Nick Sahf (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK), Jett Thompson (New Hope Kings)(DRAW/LOSS), Landon Elmore (Dollamur)(DRAW/LOSS). Honestly, I think Sergio will out perform this projection. As an all-American wrestler and super experienced black belt competitor, he’s going to be a problem for every competitor. At the same time, it usually takes competitors some time to adjust to the PGF. This lineup of opponents doesn’t give Sergio any adjustment time. Still, at this price, he’s worth considering for a roster spot.
Dominic Mejia (Alabama Twisters) – $900 – 6 points faces CJ Murdock (Tropic Thunders), Anthony Molina Valdes (New Hope Kings), Derek Rayfield (Dollamur). Don’t ask me how he’s going to do it, but Mejia will put points on the board. Your PGF Season 8 Massachusetts Qualifier winner (seriously it was located at least 95 minutes away from Boston) has had a lot of success lately, including a great submission at AIGA which kept him out of the PGF for the first two weeks. At this price, put him on your roster.
PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)
Jordan Wirth (INACTIVE) $875 – on the IR for the Twisters.
Anthony Gojani (New Hope Kings) – $850 – 3 points faces Landon Elmore (Dollamur)(DRAW/LOSS), Matthew Masch (Alabama Twisters)(DRAW/LOSS), John Chandler (Tropic Thunders)(BREAK). Gojani will finish the day on an up note but faces two killers in the first two blocks.
Juan Martinez (New Hope Kings) – $850 – 0 points faces Derek Rayfield (Dollamur), Kristian Olivo (Alabama Twisters), Nick Sahf (Tropic Thunders). Juan is a fan favorite of long-time PGF fans. He’s improved greatly since he was on Season 4. But his improvements haven’t led to meaningful points. PGF fans want to see Juan put points on the board, but fantasy managers can’t bank on it right now.
Robert Blackledge (INACTIVE) – $775
Noah Guitierrez (INACTIVE) – $725
Brady Branscum (Dollamur) – $700 – 0 points faces Dominic Lobo (New Hope Kings), JJ Bowers (Tropic Thunders), Matthew Masch (Alabama Twisters). Thus far, Branscum’s wrestling-heavy style hasn’t led to submissions at the PGF. He’s a bargain price and might be worth it for the Team Dollamur block points.
Nick Sahf (Tropic Thunders) – $700 – 0 points faces Sergio Ardila (Alabama Twisters), Christos Papadelos (Dollamur), Juan Martinez V (New Hope Kings). At this price, Sahf could be a great option to help you afford some premium players. He also has an outside chance at submitting Juan (and could sneak up against his other opponents). He’s the epitome of a penny stock this week – if you have the money, he’s likely your best shot for a budget player with upside potential.
John Chandler (Tropic Thunders) – $675 – 0 points faces Raphael Ferreira (Alabama Twisters), Spenser Ortiz (Dollamur), Anthony Gojani (New Hope Kings). Until Chandler can defend leg locks, every competitor will spam him with them.
Brady Hylton (INACTIVE) – $650
There you have it. Sorry for getting this out this morning; I prefer to publish the fantasy article at least by Tuesday night. Hopefully these thoughts help you evaluate or organize your projections/thoughts for picking your own team. See you in Vegas, Egghead’s about to board his flight. Remember, you have to pick a new roster each week. And if your fans haven’t jumped in yet, they can always hop in and try to win the day and the rest of the season. Tune in tonight at 4pm Pacific on the PGF World Youtube channel.
Egghead out.