PGF Season 3: Final Fantasy Predictions

We’re here. The final night of the regular season. All the competitors are banged up – you could see basically every competitor with some sort of massage or therapy implement going on the sidelines last night. As such, things could get dicey with last-minute substitutions.

We saw Matthew Boiles come in last night for Caleb McAllister’s last match. After talking to him post-show, there’s a real possibility Boiles may sub in one or more matches tonight. We know Evan Dewitt is out (I’ve seen a picture of his ankle – ouch). We could also see Keahi sneak in for one of his teammates as well, depending on how the points leader situation is set up. As of now (3:22pm) the word is Caleb is a go for tonight.

Yes, Egghead isn’t in the lead this year. I’ll admit I’m not a speed chess guy. I need a little time to ruminate on my calls and this week has been a sprint. Whoever wins this fantasy season, congrats! I name you the PGF speed-fantasy king (or queen). As LMAC pointed out on the broadcast yesterday, work and other things had me frantically picking my lineup 10 minutes before we started the show yesterday. It’s okay. I’d rather lose because I didn’t devote enough time to analysis instead of because any “c” words came into play.

As I’ve done the rest of the week, I’ll give you my snap judgments (from Tuesday) and will come back to refine the analysis and add commentary. This should at least get you started on your picks.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $25; faces – Eric Longar (black) [KILL]; Dane Leak (black) [DRAW]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL] – 12 points. Longar is one of the best guard passers in the PGF, but he’s not getting past Elijah’s guard. If Longar tries (which he probably will), I have Elijah getting that patented triangle for the kill. Elijah was forced to accept two draws on the third night. Dane will be coming in here needing to get points. Even though Dane hasn’t gotten the submissions he’s wanted this season, taking out Elijah would make it a successful season. Still, their skill levels are both very high and it could be another draw. As much as Elijah says he doesn’t care about the standings, you know he has to deep down – he’s the King of the PGF and he’s going for that kill against Marcus. Heck, I pointed out he needed the Elkins hat trick on his patented triangle setup (as he got Matt and Jake in his triangle in seasons 1 and 2).

Jeovany Ortiz (black) – $21; faces Mario Gaor (purple) [DRAW]; Manning Leverett (purple) [DRAW]; and Tyler Woolsey (purple) [BREAK] – 3 points. Jeo is tied for 8th with David Evers. If both get draws only tonight, we could be looking at a no-time-limit, sub-only match to settle it. If Jeo doesn’t want to go four matches tonight, he’s going to need to get at least a break against Woolsey, if not a kill. But Woolsey has shown intense heart and durability against chokes, so a break is more likely. I have the Mario and Manning matches as draws because both are such game competitors. They also are both on Sean Applegate’s team. Sean has a lot of experience with Jeo and will have a game plan for both Mario and Manning. Jeo should be fun to watch but not to put on your roster.

Caleb McAllister (black) – $20; faces – “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [DRAW]; Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [BREAK]; Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL] – 9 points. These picks are going to be controversial. Caleb is injured, but he’s still going to go after it tonight. He’s facing three very tough opponents. Handsome Kevin might not be the handsomest man on the mat in their matchup, but he’s still a D1 wrestler and disciple of Sean Applegate. Sean has a plan for Caleb and Sherrill should be able to execute it. The rubber match between the Elbow Genie and Caleb should be exciting. Both are not 100% – Caleb is injured and Roberts is considerably worn down. I think Caleb’s cardio will win the day and he’ll settle for a break against the Elbow Genie. Still, as Matt Skaff said, the Elbow Genie is a katana and with one stroke could get a kill (or submission).

Dane Leak (black) – $20; faces Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [DRAW]; Kevin “Beuhrik” Beuhring (blue) [KILL]; Josh Gibbs (purple)[KILL] – 12 points. Dane is on the outside looking in at the finale, but is still within striking distance, currently with 12 points. Dane v Elijah shoudl be a great match but I don’t have the confidence to pick either over the other. Beuhring is very hard to kill, but I have to think Leak will get in that pocket and find a way to get the kill. Likewise, Gibbs really performed last night, even in his losses, but Leak needs the kill to stay relevant in the post-season hunt.

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) – $19; faces Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [BREAK]; Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [BREAK]; Caleb McAllister (black) [DRAW] – 6 points. The Elbow Genie is solidly in the playoffs, so his mentality should be to get some breaks and get out safely so he can be ready for Saturday. The rubber match between Caleb and Roberts should be really exciting but I can’t pick a winner.

Eric Longar (black) – $18; faces Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS]; Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (brown) [LOSS]; Kevin “Beuhrik” Beuhring (blue) [LOSS] – 0 points. Tonight’s not Longar’s night. He’s facing very tough competition and I don’t think he’ll get a sub.

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (brown) – $18; faces David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [DRAW]; Eric Longar (black) [KILL]; and Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL] – 12 points.

“Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) – $17; faces Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [DRAW]; Noah Randolph (purple) [KILL] – 6 points.

David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) – $16; faces Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (brown) [BREAK]; Carlos Andres (purple) [BREAK]; Noah Randolph (purple) [BREAK] – 9 points.

Mario Gaor (brown) – $16; faces Isaac “the Wandering Grappler” Stackhouse (purple) [BREAK]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [DRAW]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [DRAW] – 3 points.

Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) – $16; faces Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [DRAW]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [DRAW] – 0 points.

Tyler Woolsey (purple) – $16; faces Mario Gaor (purple) [DRAW]; Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [BREAK]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS] – 3 points.

Carlos Andres (purple) – $15; faces Kevin “Beuhrick” Beuhring [LOSS]; David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [LOSS]; Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Noah Randolph (purple) – $15; faces Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [DRAW]; David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [LOSS]; “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring (blue) – $14; faces Carlos Andres (purple) [BREAK]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Eric Longar (black) [BREAK] – 6 points.

Manning Leverett (purple) – $14; faces Josh Gibbs (purple)[KILL]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [DRAW]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS] – 6 points.

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $14; faces Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [KILL]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [DRAW] – 6 points.

Josh Gibbs (purple)– $13; faces Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [BREAK]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS] – 3 points.

Isaac Stackhouse (purple) – $12; faces Mario Gaor (brown) [LOSS]; Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; and Noah Randolph (purple) [DRAW] – 0 points.

Marcus Elkins (blue) – $12; faces Josh Gibbs (purple)[LOSS]; Kevin Primeau [LOSS]; Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (black) [LOSS] – 0 points.

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