First, congrats to your leading Fantasy managers!
Day 2 saw some continued dominance and distancing from the pack by the “Hokage” Nekiaya Jackson and the “Great” Dane Leak. Maximus “Rock Troll” Jolly also kept his appendage-stealing ways going, while adding in a KILL for good measure. We saw some awesome matches, but the biggest storyline has to be the “zero to hero” trajectories of Samson Phommabout and Alex Hall. Both were tied for last with zero points leading into Day 2. Now, they are ranked third and fourth, respectively. These gentlemen proved no one is out of contention for the title. All it takes is a string of submissions to get right back in the hunt.
Things should get even crazier as PGF Season 4’s regular season comes to a close tomorrow. Competitors must feel an increased sense of urgency as their opportunities to get on the mat and earn a spot in the finale dwindle. While many competitors are banged up from the first two days’ matches, I think we see them hit a new gear as they reach the finish of the regular season.
As submission have been hard to come by this season, statistically, no one has been eliminated from title contention. Some folks would have to take out almost both opponent’s teams’ with all KILLS in the first minute of each match, but they are not eliminated. It might be one in a million for some competitors, but it’s possible.
Even though there’s a chance for everyone, the data tells us some competitors are more likely than others to make a run at the finale. As usual, Egghead is here to help you fantasy managers sort through all the data and select your winning fantasy rosters.
REMEMBER: You must lock in your team before the competition starts EACH DAY. You must select your team each day – it will not pull over your first day’s team to the second day.
Without further ado, here’s the fantasy analysis. Competitors can either prove me wrong on the mats or get payback during the nightly open mats.
SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)
Dane Leak (black) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $25 Leak took a commanding lead on Day 2. He sunk in three kills, one eligible for the Elbow Genie bonus point. Leak’s true mastery of fundamental jiu jitsu can take him from being punished on bottom to locking in a bolt-cutter choke (wrong-side triangle) in seconds. The Great Dane has to be a super-premium. The only reason his price didn’t increase was the chance he might take some matches off since he’s already secured a spot in the finale.
Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $25; faces Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [DRAW], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [KILL], Anna Cononge (brown) – [KILL]; Tara Larosa (purple) [DRAW] – 12 points. Nekiaya is your consistent performer. As I said in my last post, she’s money in the bank. She could rest on her laurels but I doubt she takes her foot off the gas pedal. If anything, I think she’s going to come out and show the other ladies’ strategy of stalling her out won’t work.
Maximus “Rock Troll” Jolly – (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $25; In my first fantasy analysis post, I warned everyone “The Rock Troll is coming for everyone’s legs this season”…I was right, but I should’ve included people’s arms and necks as well. The Rock Troll has become a real star of the PGF season. It’s a good bet he keeps the submission coming.
David Garcia (brown) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $20; Garcia’s methodical, heavy pressure game leading led to two kills the first day, but couldn’t put any points on the board the second day. He’s too good to knock down too much on fantasy price or predictions. Give Garcia a chance and he’s going to be back up in the top four.
Manning Leverett (brown belt) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $20; I wonder if Manning is fueled by disrespect. I gave him his proper respect, and a Duval shout-out from Walo in my last post. Then Manning went out and put zero points on the board on Day 2. To be fair, Manning faced a cagey black belt in Evan Dewitt, succumbing to a sick north-south choke (after some crazy transitions). Then, Billy Baxter showed some great flashes of jiu jitsu to stave off Manning’s attacks, forcing the draw. I’m dropping Manning down a little bit, but we all know what the Manaconda can do. Competitors can disrespect Manning at their peril.
Reese Lafever (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $20; Lafever showed he really has leveled up since traveling down to Austin to train with New Wave Jiu Jitsu. Reese didn’t have a good second day. First, he suffered a couple of pops (including one serious one) during an ankle lock submission loss. Then, he had to face the league-leading Dane Leak, where he forced a draw. Reese’s talent and potential is undeniable. He had a rough day, but I’m not dropping him for it.
Joanie Chamberland (black belt) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $20; faces Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [DRAW/LOSS], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [KILL]; Brianna Parocha (blue) – [FORFEIT WIN]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [KILL] – 14 points. Joanie is a straight gangster for fighting through her arm injury. She put up 12 points on Day 2 in an effort to catch up to Nekiaya, but Nekiaya matched Joanie’s points. Now, Joanie is down eight points. You have to think Joanie needs to pull out a KILL on all her available opponents to have a chance to take home the season championship.
Evan Dewitt (black) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $20; We’ve talked about Evan’s PGF Season 3 injury leading to him having extra motivation to show what he can do this season. Well, he’s been consistent in showing he will make the most of it. He’s currently tied for fifth place. But we’ve seen how the rankings can change quickly. Evan knows he has to put more points on the board to lock down a spot at the finale. I see at least a kill in his future for Day 3. As a fan, I’m pumped to see Evan showcase the jiu jitsu we all knew he had in him.
Samson “The Hustler” Phommabout (brown belt) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $18; Samson had about the toughest lineup of opponents on Day 1 leading to no points. Samson showed exactly how dangerous he is during Day 2. He secured a KILL as well as three BREAKS and even earned himself a Elbow Genie bonus point. He went from zero (points) to hero in the course of one day. His Day 2 performance moved him from tied for last to third place in the rankings. Folks who have done their research on Samson know Day 1 was a fluke. Samson will be putting more points on the board during the final day of the regular season.
Alex Hall (purple) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $18; In my last post, I had Hall as a penny stock and said “Alex is a serious value pick here.” Well, I was right he was a value pick. If you bet on Alex, he paid of BIG in Day 2. Hall went from zero points to 14 points and fourth place. He did so by earning one KILL and two BREAKs with one Elbow Genie point. I said Alex was hungry and he proved it. With the added confidence he earned today, Alex will be a handful for any competitor he faces on the last day of the regular season.
Anthony Molina Valdes (brown) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $18; As Team Ironclad’s anchor, Anthony will get a lot of opportunities. He had Reese Lafever in some trouble a few times before succumbing to a break by Lafever. Anthony has a serious competitive streak. He came out angry the next time he was on the mats. Anthony only secured one break on the first day, but expect him to come out motivated and ready to hop on any submission available. I’m willing to bet he shows his full potential in the next two days.
Stephen Dana (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $18; Dana is a very game competitor but has shown inconsistencies in the past at qualifiers. He secured a break and got the team point on day 1. I have to think Coach Applegate will put Dana in good spots to get points in the next couple of blocks.
Kaida Davis (brown belt) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $18; faces Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [DRAW], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [BREAK], Anna Cononge (brown) – [BREAK]; Tara Larosa (purple) [DRAW] – 6 points. Kaida came out with a purpose on Day 2. She secured a peruvian neckie for KILL and a bicep slicer for a break, earning 10 points (she received the team point as well). With the added confidence from her Day 2 performance, I think Kaida has real potential to finally get that win over Anna. Cyanide has been able to frustrate most opponents, forcing a draw, but Kaida was able to get that bicep slicer against her in Day 2. While Cyanide will be wary, Kaida has a great potential to catch Cyanide with one of her very exciting, unorthodox submissions.
Mario Gaor (brown) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister – $18; Mario secured a RNC to get on the board during Day 2, but he also had first-round pick Stephen Dana in a crucifix for nearly half a round. While the latter match was a draw, it was masterful work. Mario is showing great jiu jitsu. I’m not sure how many points he’ll get you, but he has the potential for multiple wins with his technical jiu jitsu.
Juan Martinez V (brown) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $18; the lead instructor at Childress BJJ in Pueblo, Colorado, Juan has the only competitor to earn the Elbow Genie bonus point for sinking in a submission in the first minute of Day 1. He showed great heart and jiu jitsu on Day 2. Juan scored a Kill to make him tied for 8th place going into the final day of the regular season. I have to believe the motivation of being on the bubble to make the season finale will have him dialed up to 11.
Anna Cononge (brown) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister)– $18; faces Brianna Parocha (blue) – [FORFEIT WIN]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [BREAK], Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [DRAW], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [DRAW]– 5 points. Anna has beautiful jiu jitsu, but her style might not be ideal for racking up points in the PGF. She secured a kill on day 2 and received two points for Brianna’s forfeit. These points kept her out of being mathematically eliminated from winning the season. Anna will get the same forfeit points from Brianna and I believe she’ll get at least a break against Claire. But, I don’t think Anna will be able to steal any points from Nekiaya or Kaida.
Matthew Boiles – (blue) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $16; Boiles still excudes his excitement and energy for which he’s known. Every time he steps on the mat, everyone knows excitement will ensue. We saw a very different Matthew Boiles matchup against Dane Leak on day 2 (with Leak getting the kill via smother). I have a feeling Boiles has plenty of exciting matches and submission left in him for Season 4.
Jacob Arp – (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $15; Arp hasn’t scored since the first day. He’s been in exciting matches which always have the fans happy to see him on the mats. As we’ve said, he’s coming after everyone, putting on a pace. He can come straight after you or sit back for that straight ankle lock. As a fan, I always look forward to seeing Arp on the mat. But as a fantasy manager, I’m not sure how bankable he is for fantasy points.
Nathan “Irish Taco” Chambers (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $15; THE IRISH TACO!!! He was involved in one of the most exciting matches in PGF history against Matthew Boiles and secured the submission. While he’s very exciting, it seems he may have injured his leg on the first day. Chambers tapped very quickly to one leg lock today, then tapped again to a leg attack later in the day. It seems the field has found the Irish Taco’s kryptonite. Chambers is still very exciting to watch and has earned a fan here. But with a bum leg slowing him down, Chamber’s opponents will have a good shot at neutralizing him with leg attacks.
Nick Sahf (blue) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $15; Sahf scored the upset of the season locking in an ankle lock against Reese Lafever. Then, Sahf came out and took out a very game Matthew Boiles with another break in the final seconds of their match. Sahf won’t let anyone sleep on him anymore. Sahf might regress to the mean, getting no points on the final day…or he might just have found his stride. We’ll have to wait and see which Sahf comes out on the final day of the season.
Tara Larosa – (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $15; faces Brianna Parocha (blue) – [FOREIT]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [KILL], Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [DRAW], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [DRAW] – 8 points. Tara didn’t have the killer day I predicted on the second day. She got a kill and had some great matches, but she wasn’t able to put a lot of points on the board. She’s currently 17 points behind Nekiaya. Tara knows she needs kills. Tara gets two points for the likely forfeit by Brianna. So, she needs at least two kills and a break to force a tie with Nekiaya (assuming Nekiaya doesn’t put points on the board which is a bad assumption). So, basically, Tara needs to go for a QUICK KILL in every match. Will this sense of urgency unleash her full potential or open her up to getting submitted herself?
Sam Acord (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $13; Sam is a young competitor and plays with a lot of athleticism. Sam used his leglocking skill to take out a very dangerous Nathan “Irish Taco” Chambers. Sam showed us all “Pretty Boy Jiu Jitsu” is a real thing. We’ll just see if he can keep it up and threaten to take the Handsome title next season.
Wesley Carter (brown) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $10; Carter’s a gritty guy who can wrestle and go for legs. He’s really well-rounded. Carter has been a great teammate and tired out or taken to a draw his opponents. Still, he hasn’t scored a submission yet. He’s at the $10 mark because you have a good feeling he’ll at least get you the team point.
TJ Steinebach – (brown) – Team Ironclad (Matt Elkins) – $10; TJ has a very solid base. Competitors he faced said how hard he is to off balance and that he’s just solid. Apparently, he’s also a cult leader. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found a way to lock in a submission this season. He has a very “my grips or no grips” mentality. We saw some great action from Steinebach in the Decatur qualifier; I hope he brings back that same game for the final day of the regular season. He’s at the $10 mark because you have a good feeling he’ll at least get you the team point.
Jacob Mashburn – (blue) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $10; Mashburn continues to have flashes of great jiu jitsu but still hasn’t been able to put points on the board. He’s playing for his real-life coach so you have to think Caleb will put Mashburn in good spots to get some subs. On day 2, Caleb masterfully used Mashburn to stall out the Rock Troll who was on a tear (literally tearing off people’s limbs) – so Mashburn took one for the team to eliminate a big threat. Caleb has said Mashburn is a sponge of jiu jitsu knowledge and I wouldn’t be surprise if he leveled up even more from Day 2 to the final day.
Noah Randolph – (purple) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $10; At some point in time, Noah will break through his shell and come out firing both with his jiu jitsu and on the microphone. Noah has it in him, we all know it. But will he be able go Super Saiyan this season?
Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $10; faces Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [DRAW], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [DRAW]; Brianna Parocha (blue) – [FORFEIT WIN]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [BREAK] – 5 points. Cyanide just got back from Spain representing the US in grappling. She’s very gritty and has apparently received some private lessons from Evan Stapler (gritty, grindy jiu jitsu). She’s fun to watch and she’ll be hard to put away for anyone. But she hasn’t shown the ability to put anyone away, either. Cyanide will get two points if Brianna is unable to compete (which is likely) and for internal consistency purposes, I have to pick her to get a submission against Claire Mitchell. Cyanide will give you guaranteed points for a bargain price on your team and she retains upside potential.
PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.
Eric Longar (black) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $9; It’s a crime he slid to the last round again this season. He’s a gym-owning black belt. Even in bigger seasons, Longar has shown us great passing and sweeps. Still, he can’t seem to get the submission. He hasn’t had a lot of reps this season, which might have kept him from getting in his groove. I’m reducing his to penny stock price – but penny stocks are highly volatile. We just saw Alex Hall go from zero points and penny stock to fourth place in the regular season standings. Given the right scenario, I have no doubt Longar could do the same thing.
Claire Mitchell – (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $9; faces Anna Cononge (brown) – [LOSS]; Tara Larosa (purple) [LOSS], Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [DRAW], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [KILL]– 0 points. Claire scored an inside heel hook against a very dangerous Kaida Davis near the beginning of Day 2. She took her opportunity to show some shade on folks who picked her to lose her matches. So much so, LMAC dubbed Claire the “Salt Bae” of the PGF. Well, the media always gets the last word…so, I’m picking her to lose all her matches and I’m keeping her as a penny stock. So there, Claire – neener, neener. I guess we got beef now. But seriously, Claire has shown some real resiliency and great defense. It would be good to see her go for more attacks.
Billy Baxter (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $9; Billy has a different style than most competitors in this field. Even for the 155 lb season, it looks like Baxter is a little undersized, allowing his competition to stall Baxter’s movement. Billy still showed some insane counters and attacks today. I know he’s made a lot of new fans with his gameplay and I think we’re all excited to see his superfight in the undercard of the finale.
Charles Muxo (blue) – Team Cantrell (Kemoy Anderson) – $9; Chaz Muxo has some underrated leg attacks. He’s very undersized for this season. He showed some very beautiful escapes and some great counters in day 2, but not enough to get on the board. He knew he was undersized for this season, but he keeps stepping up and giving it his everything. As they say, it’s not how many times you get knocked down, it’s how many times you get back up. Chaz is going to keep getting up and stepping up to any opponent they place in front of him.
Brianna Parocha – (blue) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $9; INJURED. We all hope Brianna gets better soon. She suffered an injury during day 2 and is unlikely to return. Despite being one of the smallest and least experienced ladies, she brought a real ferociousness to her matches. Her indomitable spirit will help her as she recovers.