PGF Season 3, Day 2 (Tuesday) Fantasy Analysis

Coming into day two, Keahi Makekau has more fantasy points than half the competitors. He received that team point from Team Toehold’s drubbing of every other team. This fact should lead to a paradigm shift – all breaks might not be too bad. We may see folks adopting the old Elbow Genie approach to taking whatever you can find as soon as you can find it.

We also have saw two competitors take serious pops to joints (Kevin Primeau’s elbow and Evan Dewitt’s ankle) – it’s very likely one if not both may not be able to continue. If an alternate comes in, I’ll try to adjust as soon as I know for sure.

UPDATE: Evan Dewitt is confirmed as a SCRATCH. Josh Gibbs (purple) will substitute for his matches tonight. Kevin Primeau is a GO.

As always, I’ll come back and put more analysis as time allows, but Egghead wants to get some rolls in at the open mat. Until later this afternoon, this is what you get.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $25; faces – Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [KILL]; Joshua Gibbs (purple) [KILL]; and Noah Randolph (purple) [BREAK] – 15. Until someone beats Elijah, or heck, even gets a draw against Elijah, you have to bet on Elijah. We have a lineup of fan favorites facing Elijah tonight, but they’re not on his level. Noah, or pretty much all of them could get a moral victory by forcing a break. However, since Elijah settled for three breaks the first night, he’s going to be hunting for those kills tonight.

Jeovany Ortiz (black) – $21; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden [BREAK]; Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [BREAK]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL] – 12 points. Jeo was many people’s choice to come in second this season if not to give Elijah a run for his money to win it all. Jeo had to settle for two draws and a kill. Tonight, he faces a problem for all in Roden – the smart money is to hope to get a break before he has a chance to further refine his leg lock defense (it’s definitely improved since season two). Isaac is just gritty enough to force Ortiz into a break as well. Marcus presents an interesting skill set and body type but Jeo is also lanky, but more experienced, likely leading to a kill.

Caleb McAllister (black) – $20; faces – Dane Leak (black) [DRAW]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [KILL]; Manning Leverett (purple) [KILL] – 12 points. Honestly, I have no idea what’s going to happen in the Leak match. Caleb could get the pass and keep Leak on the defensive all match, but Leak is so skilled at recovering his guard or otherwise getting out of trouble. Either party could win, but I can’t put a possible win in the analysis. I’m a big fan of Woolsey, but Caleb’s extra experience, athleticism, and size should carry the day. After Leverett shining so bright the first night, we could see a return to the mean tonight, especially against the competition-proven black belt.

Dane Leak (black) – $20; faces David “Quadzilla” Evers [DRAW]; Caleb McAllister (black) [DRAW]; Noah Randolph (purple) [KILL] – 6 points. See above for analysis of Caleb match. I have to agree with Skaff that we could really see Evers not get submitted this season – Coach Drew Weatherhead has stressed Evers doesn’t provide an appendage or neck capable of being submitted. However, if you’re no the fence, I think Leak’s penchant for the RNC (and using a muffler to open it up) might just make him the guy to get a kill against Evers. As much as Noah is a fan favorite, he might be intimidated by the level of talent in this iteration of the PGF. Leak’s national-level competition experience shows us he has the ability to get the kill in that match.

PREMIUMS

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) – $19; faces Joshua Gibbs (purple) [BREAK]; Eric Longar (black) [BREAK]; Mario Gaor (brown) [BREAK] – 9 points.  The Elbow Genie was set to face the Louisville Qualifier crew before Gibbs had to sub in for the injured Evan Dewitt. As mentioned above, the paradigm shift has likely occurred for many competitors. Unlike the first season, if the Elbow Genie can get breaks (and slip in a few in the first minute to take advantage of his namesake rule), he should make the finale. Don’t get me wrong, tonight won’t be a cake walk for the Elbow Genie, but he has the PGF pedigree and proven techniques to make a sweep of breaks happen.

Eric Longar (black) – $18; faces Joshua Gibbs (purple) [DRAW]; Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points. We may have seen why the coaches passed on the black belt until the final active roster round. While season 3 is closer to his weight class, he is still a little undersized compared to most competitors. We’ve seen his continued outstanding passing, but not the finishes necessary to make him a good fantasy pick.

Evan Dewitt (black)  – $18; INJURY SCRATCH

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (brown) – $18; faces Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [DRAW]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [DRAW]; Kevin “Beuhrik” Beuhring (blue) [DRAW] – 0 points. The first rule of PGF Fantasy is “Never Bet Against Kevin Primeau.” Okay, many of us broke that rule for the first night given his crazy weight cut and the murder’s row he faced. This night was set to be his chance to come back big, but he suffered a horrible pop against the Elbow Genie when Primeau tried to lift his weigh out of an arm bar. Given his likely reduced capability (might be essentially down one arm), it’s hard to put him on the roster.

“Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) – $17; faces Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [KILL]; Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [KILL]; Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL] – 18 points. “Handsome Kevin” (HK) is coming off a rough night. He faced two of the top five competitors in the PGF. Despite showing great skill and athleticism, he left Monday night with no points. HK knows he needs to make an impact tonight to have a chance at making the finale tournament. Look to see his D1 wrestling and passing skills on display again as he finds ways to positional dominance. Unlike Monday, he should find ways to finish his kills tonight.

AVERAGE

David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) – $16; faces Kevin “Beuhrik” Beuhring (blue) [DRAW]; Dane Leak (black) [DRAW]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [BREAK] – 3 points. I’m picking the little tank over the Beuhrik. Baby Kevin wants to play the leg game, but Evers might just have the build and experience to win that battle. Still, I can’t imagine what Coach Applegate saw from last night in Evers that they may target. It’s too close to give Evers points in a fantasy roster pick analysis. Again, the match with Leak is too close to call, but if a gun was put to my head to pick a winner, I have to go with Leak by RNC. Woolsey is very skilled and may get a chance to show his top game against Evers. While Woolsey has great movement, we’ve seen Evers catch very experienced competitors and he will likely do the same here.  

Mario Gaor (brown) – $16; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [BREAK]; Carlos Andres (blue) [BREAK]; Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS] – 6 points. Mario has some very sneaky leg attacks (and other sneaky attacks in general). It could be tough to finish two of the the big wrestlers of the season, but I have faith Mario can find a way.  As for the third match, it’s the Elbow Genie…’nuff said.

Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) – $16; faces Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS]; Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (black) [LOSS]; “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Tyler Woolsey (purple) – $16; faces Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS]; Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (brown) [DRAW]; David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [DRAW] – 0 points.  

Carlos Andres (purple) – $15; faces Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS]; Mario Gaor (purple) [LOSS]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Noah Randolph (purple) – $15; faces Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Kevin “Beuhrick” Beuhring (blue) [DRAW]; Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (black) [LOSS] – 0 points.

BELOW AVERAGE

Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring (blue) – $14; faces David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [LOSS]; Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) [BREAK]; Noah Randolph (purple) [BREAK] – 6 points.

Manning Leverett (purple) – $14; faces Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [KILL]; Caleb McAllister (black) [DRAW]; Eric Longar (black) [KILL] – 12 points.

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $14; faces Mario Gaor (brown) [LOSS]; Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL] – 12 points.

Joshua Gibbs (purple) – $13; faces Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS]; Eric Longar (black) [KILL] – 6 points.

Matthew Boiles (blue) – $13; faces ALTERNATE.

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.

Isaac Stackhouse (purple) – $12; faces “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS]; Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) [DRAW]; and Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Louis Collins (purple) – $12; faces ALTERNATE.

Marcus Elkins (blue) – $12; faces “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Keahi Makekau (blue) – $11 faces ALTERNATE.

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