PGF Season 3, Monday Night Fantasy Predictions!

Okay folks, I just got done sitting down with Matt Skaff and Lindsey Mccaghren for more than 3 hours breaking down the PGF Season 3 live draft. We have matches starting at 6pm CST tonight, with a pre-show starting at 5pm CST. I’m going to push out an initial fantasy take based on the matchups and may add on to the analysis or edit it later (but and Egghead’s got to get some chow before going back on air).

As a quick thought: THESE FIRST NIGHT MATCHES ARE FIRE!!!!!! Elijah v Elbow Genie! Jeo Ortiz rematches David “Quadzilla” Evers! Caleb McAllister v Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring! Dane Leak v “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill! Elbow Genie v Liquid Terminator! “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill v Elbow Genie! Mario Gaor rematch against Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison! Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring rematches Randy “Dumptruck” Roden!

So many awesome matches! I’m very excited. Anyway, here’s my snap judgment on the fantasy ranks for tonight. And, yes, I know the PGF Insider guys all have two fantasy teams. We’re using one team to track our early mock draft from a month ago and another team to vie for the fantasy champtionships.

For those new to the PGF Fantasy game, you start out with a $120 budget and have to pick players at different prices for a possible seven rosters spots. Sure, pick up Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton, but you may not have enough money to fill that seventh spot – but does that matter? Well, here’s my initial thoughts, good luck.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $25; faces – Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (brown) [KILL]; Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (purple) [KILL]; and Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [BREAK] – 15 points.  Elijah catches a big break facing the two biggest competitors as they’re still rehydrating.  Roden and Primeau are very tough and they’re already almost up to 190 pounds. Still, it’s best to get them when they’re still a little drained from their extreme weight cut. Normally, I’d say those matches are likely breaks for Elijah, but with them in their weakened states, I think he can pull off the kills. As for the Elbow Genie, the only match between the two I’ve seen was the PGF Season 1 match in regular season where Elijah got Jonathan with his patented triangle setup. I don’t think Jonathan will fall for it again. Elijah will likely have to settle for a leg lock against the Elbow Genie.

Jeovany Ortiz (black) – $21; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden [KILL]; David “Meatsickle” Evers [DRAW]; Eric “Sasquatch” Longar [BREAK] – 9 points. Hard to call. Jeo is many people’s pick to finish in the top three of this season. Like Elijah, Jeo will benefit from facing a still rehydrating Roden – normally, I would err on the side of Roden forcing at least a break, but he will be more susceptible in his rehydrating state. Most people might assume Ortiz got a finish against Evers in the Decatur qualifier, but it was a judges decision. Ortiz had to constantly defend an onslaught of leg attacks from Evers in the first few minutes, then won the match after winning positionally for the rest of the match. I think this match could go either way, so I have to say it’s a draw for analysis purposes. Ortiz versus Longar should be more competitive than their draft positions. As two black belts going against each other, it should be interesting. Can Longar’s passing beat Ortiz’s guard? I have to give it to Ortiz with the national-level competition experience.

Caleb McAllister (black) – $20; faces – Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [KILL]; Mario Gaor (brown) [BREAK]; Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring (blue) [DRAW] – 9 points. The fittest competitor this season, McAllister should have a good night. He’s very smart and likely did his homework on Harrison. I think McAllister can pass that guard with his speed and get in position to get the kill. Gaor could be more of a handful than many think and I think he has many tricks up his sleeve, but this is Caleb. Caleb should get the break at least. Intriguingly, the Beuhrik may be the most troublesome for Caleb. Kevin B is very dangerous and doesn’t have a lot of film out there. Caleb could find a way to get the kill, but he may be stymied by Beuhrik’s leg attacks (making him pause).

Dane Leak (black) – $20; faces Isaac “the Wandering Grappler” Stackhouse (purple) [KILL]; Kevin “Liquid Terminator, Pete Rose” Primeau (brown) [DRAW]; “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill [DRAW] – 6 points. It’s a tough night for Dane as he faces 2/3 of the League of Extraordinary Kevins. After narrowly avoiding being jumped by Isaac and his coach in the AirBnB kitchen they’re staying in, Dane should find a way to Isaac’s back for the choke. As can’t be said enough, facing Kevin Primeau this close to his weight cut is a boon for Dane. Moreover, Primeau is also facing the Elbow Genie and Elijah, so if Dane gets Primeau third, he’ll be in a much better spot to survive or get a submission despite being at least 20 lbs lighter than Primeau. Dane versus “Handsome” Kevin is a tough one to call. Dane faced another, more-seasoned 10th Planet Atlanta purple belt in the Austin qualifier and had his hands full (eventually getting the submission). I’m sure “Handsome” Kevin would like to avenge his training partner, but this match is too close for me to call for roster purposes.

PREMIUMS

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) – $19; faces Kevin “Liquid Terminator, Pete Rose” Primeau (brown) [DRAW]; Elijah Carlton (brown) [LOSS]; and “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill [BREAK] – 3 points.  

Eric Longar (black) – $18; faces Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [DRAW]; Carlos Andres (purple) [BREAK]; and Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS] – 3 points.

Evan Dewitt (black) – $18; faces Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [BREAK]; David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [LOSS]; and Tyler Woolsey [LOSS] – 3 points. .

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (brown) – $18; faces Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS] – 0 points.

“Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) – $17; faces Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (black) [LOSS]; Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [BREAK] – 3 points.

AVERAGE

David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) – $16; faces Mario Gaor (purple) [BREAK]; Evan Dewitt (black) [BREAK]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [DRAW] – 6 points.

Mario Gaor (brown) – $16; faces Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) [BREAK]; David “Quadzilla” Evers (purple) [LOSS]; and Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS] – 3 points.

Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (black) – $16; faces Eric Longar (black) [DRAW]; Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS]; and Mario Gaor (brown) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Tyler Woolsey (purple) – $16; faces “Handsome” Kevin Sherrill (purple) [LOSS]; Evan Dewitt (black) [BREAK]; Noah Randolph (purple) [DRAW] – 3 points.  

Carlos Andres (purple) – $15; faces Noah Randolph (purple) [LOSS]; Eric Longar (purple) [LOSS]; and Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Noah Randolph (purple) – $15; faces Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL]; Tyler Woolsey (purple) [DRAW] – 12 points.

BELOW AVERAGE

Kevin “Beurick” Beuhring (blue) – $14; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [BREAK]; Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL]; and Caleb McAllister (black) [LOSS] – 9 points.

Manning Leverett (purple) – $14; faces Carlos Andres (purple) [KILL]; Isaac Stackhouse (purple) [KILL]; and Marcus Elkins (blue) [KILL] – 18 points.

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $14; faces Elijah Carlton (black) [LOSS]; Jeo Ortiz (black) [LOSS]; Kevin Beuhring (blue) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Joshua Gibbs (purple) – $13; faces ALTERNATE.

Matthew Boiles (blue) – $13; faces ALTERNATE.

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.

Isaac Stackhouse (purple) – $12; faces Dane Leak (black) [LOSS]; Evan Dewitt (black) [LOSS]; and Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Louis Collins (purple) – $12; faces ALTERNATE.

Marcus Elkins (blue) – $12; faces Manning Leverett (purple) [LOSS]; Kevin Beuhring (blue) [LOSS]; and Noah Randolph (purple) [LOSS] – 0 points.

Keahi Makekau (blue) – $11 faces ALTERNATE.

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