This season is scrambling Egghead’s brain (yes that’s an egg joke). But seriously, the Quintet format makes prognostication infinitely harder. In all the previous seasons, we had a round-robin, near round-robin, or at least known schedule of who would face whom in the season. Now, for the men, we know the team matchups for each day’s quintet showdowns but who will face whom in the contests?
As Coach Kemoy Anderson pointed out at the end of the draft, there’s a lot of strategy for a Quintet match. Some folks propose front-loading the best competitors on a team to steam-roll the competition. Others, Egghead included, would think about leading off with a middle of the road team member that has upside to possibly steal a couple of matches and put our team ahead. We’d save the anchor spot for the best competitor (or second best) and put the best in the middle.
While these strategies might be the best for the Quintet match, what are the effects on the individual competitors and their chances of making the post-season tournament? Last season, Coach Sean Applegate sent all five of his starting team to the post-season. This season, each of Coach Applegate’s players will be competing against their opponents but also against each other for playing time (matches). For instance, Coach Applegate went with his student, Stephen Dana, with his first pick. If Coach Applegate wants to guarantee Dana matches, putting him first in the lineup becomes appealing. By the middle of day 2, we could see some real friction starting, resulting from the competing interests of the team versus the individuals.
For the ladies, they became so extra valuable in the draft because they had guaranteed matches. Likewise, with these known matches, we can weigh their fantasy value more easily. Sufficed to say, if you don’t put some ladies on your fantasy team, well, I’m guessing you’re living in a state with legalized cannabis.
REMEMBER: You must lock in your team before the competition starts EACH DAY. You must select your team each day – it will not pull over your first day’s team to the second day. HERE’S THE LINK TO THE LEAGUE
Without further ado, here’s the fantasy analysis. Competitors can either prove me wrong on the mats or get payback during the nightly open mats.
SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)
Joanie Chamberland (black belt) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $25; faces Brianna Parocha (blue) – [KILL]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [KILL]; Anna Cononge (brown) – [KILL]; Tara Larosa (purple) [BREAK] – 21. Seriously, Joanie is a very skilled, black belt competitor. She loves taking folks’ backs and choking them out. She will take out Trapplegate’s ladies with kills. Anna has admitted Joanie takes her out in training (but maybe Anna knows some things others don’t). Joanie v Tara Larosa should be a VERY exciting match. I think the new competitor on the block takes it, but I also think she’ll have to settle for whatever submission she can find. There’s a real possibility that match could end up in a draw or with Tara choking out Joanie while locking eyes with Kemoy. Joanie is a no-brainer for your roster despite the high price.
Nathan “Irish Taco” Chambers (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $25; Isaac Cordova was injured and had to pull out of the season. The Irish Taco happened to be stateside and wanted to compete. The Irish Taco is the padawan or shadow of Irish Keet (part of the 10P Decatur family). The Irish Taco is looking to pull a Tom Brady, coming in for an injured Drew Bledsoe and never looking back. He could definitely surprise some folks, but probably not a good investment at $25.
Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $25; faces Anna Cononge (brown) – [KILL]; Tara Larosa (purple) [DRAW]; Brianna Parocha (blue) – [KILL]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [KILL] – 18 points. Nekaiya is fresh off her second place CJJ finish at Medusa 3. She saw the championship belt and is ready to claim it for her own. Nekiaya brings a lot of different skillsets to the mats. I think she gets kills against all but the other top two contestants. Nekiaya could get a submission against Larosa, but Larosa is super tough. Nekiaya has had multiple opponents force overtimes against her both in the 10th Planet Qualifier and at Medusa 3. Larosa has a real shot of forcing a draw if not securing submission herself.
Stephen Dana (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $25; Dana is a very game competitor but has shown inconsistencies in the past at qualifiers. Coach Applegate, his real-life coach, says Dana is the best guy in the field and he’s ready for this season. Having the skills/talent and your coach who will want to get you playing time makes Dana a good player to have on your roster, but at $25 he’s probably a little too high for your budget.
Dane Leak (black) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $23; With Isaac Cordova being injured, Dane Leak moved up to the anchor position for Team Supernatural Survival Gear. Leak looked great at the Nashville qualifier. His favorite submissions are the RNC and the bolt-cutter (reverse triangle) – so he should rack up some big points if he gets playing time.
Anthony Molina Valdes (brown) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $23; Anthony has had some recent success in other promotions. He’s a deadly leg locker and has shown he’s not afraid to pull the trigger on a submission. As Team Ironclad’s anchor, Anthony could get a lot of matches or just a few – it will depend on Kemoy’s strategy.
David Garcia (brown) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $23; Garcia is the anchor for Team Cantrell. He has a methodical, heavy pressure game leading to kills. While he may get you chunks of points at a time, will his style wear him out in the quintet format?
Reese Lafever (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $23; A recent gold medalist in the purple belt division of No Gi Pan Ams, Reese is a top pick by many to win this season. He looked good when he was training with One Nation in Nashville and for the last seven months he’s been living in Austin, training with New Wave Jiu Jitsu (yeah that one). He might have been the second round pick for Coach Applegate, but you might want consider making him an anchor for your fantasy team.
PREMIUMS
Kaida Davis (brown belt) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $20; faces Anna Cononge (brown) – [DRAW]; Tara Larosa (purple) [DRAW]; Brianna Parocha (blue) – [KILL]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [KILL] – 12 points. Kaida is a submission hunter and can be very dangerous. We saw Kaida and Anna go to a draw, then have a 1hr+ match at the Nashville qualifier – I’m willing to bet they don’t settle it within the six minutes. Tara v Kaida is an interesting matchup. Tara seems to have the more traditional and mma “position over submission” style while Kaida will attack subs from anywhere. This match is important for both ladies to stake a claim at being a true contender for the title. I’m a fan of Parocha and Mitchell, but I think Kaida will rack up some points against them. If Kaida can’t score submissions in her first two matches, I bet she works to get kills against the last two ladies.
Manning Leverett (brown belt) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $20; Manning is good everywhere and he was the second highest scoring regular season competitor in PGF Season 3 (170lb and under). He had a bad day at the Jacksonville Qualifier which lowered his draft rankings, but his body of work in the PGF otherwise (and in other competitions including his recent jump into MMA) suggests he could be a real problem for folks.
Mario Gaor (brown) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister – $20; This is Mario’s third season in the PGF. Last season he made it to the playoffs, winning a playoff match. Mario is one of the competitors this season was made for…an undersized, technical grappler. He could do very well this season.
Samson Phommabout (brown belt) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $20; Samson has a lot of competition experience in mma and jiu jitsu. His experience and athleticism will be hard for many of the competitors to handle.
Anna Cononge (brown) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister)– $18; faces Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [LOSS], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [DRAW], Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [LOSS], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [KILL]– 6 points. Anna is facing her worst lineup today. Nekiaya and Joannie are in the top three, if not the top two ladies this season. Kaida took Anna to a draw then a more than one hour match in the Nashville qualifier (safe to bet on a draw). As her coach said, Anna doesn’t make mistakes. She’ll know she needs to put points on the board so it’s likely she’ll find a way to get a kill againt Cyanide.
Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $18; faces Brianna Parocha (blue) – [BREAK]; Claire Mitchell (purple) – [BREAK]; Anna Cononge (brown) – [LOSS]; Tara Larosa (purple) [LOSS]. Cyanide just got back from Spain representing the US in grappling. She should be very confident and excited heading into the PGF. Cyanide has a great arm bar and will likely find it against her first two opponents. Cyanide should know she needs to get those points in her first two matches because her last two matches will definitely be an uphill battle.
Evan Dewitt (black) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $18; Evan trains daily with his coach Chewy. This affinity as well as Chewy’s knowledge of Evan’s capabilities might get him more playing time. Now, when he gets on the mats, that’s when Evan’s great jiu jitsu will take over. Evan’s PGF Season 3 was cut very short due to a first night injury so he has a lot of motivation to show what he can do this season.
Maximus “Rock Troll” Jolly – (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $18; The Rock Troll is coming for everyone’s legs this season. He showed a tremendous ability to get the submission very quickly in the Chattanooga qualifier he won. Being picked in the fourth round, he could be exactly the lead off guy you want – who can get a few quick subs and put your team ahead.
AVERAGE
Brianna Parocha – (blue) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $15; faces Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [LOSS], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [LOSS], Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [LOSS], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [LOSS] – 0 points. Brianna’s still new to the game even given her competitions in the bright lights. Her best bet for a win is against Cyanide, but I think Cyanide gets the break. With Brianna’s fitness levels, look for her to rise to the occasion as the grind of the season wears on her opponents.
Noah Randolph – (purple) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $15; he’s a TRUE VALUE PICK. Betting on Noah almost won me the fantasy league in the first season. He has tremendous defense and heart (we’ve seen that since he was 16 in Season 1). But Noah has progressed in perfecting his killing stroke. He’s the ninja choke master and has been known to take down black belts who visit 10th Planet Decatur. He’s that stone-faced killer you want taking out multiple competitors on the opposing team (or stalling out their best player). If you don’t have him on your team, you should consider adding him.
Tara Larosa – (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $15; faces Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [LOSS], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [DRAW], Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [LOSS], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [KILL]– 6 points. Day 1 is going to tell us a lot about the pecking order for the ladies this season. Tara has a phenomenal pedigree and is tough as nails. We’ll have a clash of traditional, mma jiu jitsu in Tara against two competitors in last weekend’s Medusa showcase. Tara can make a real statement by choking out these ladies while staring down their coaches. But I’m not going to bet money on it. Tara is a real value pick at $15, but she has her two toughest opponents on the first day.
Wesley Carter (brown) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $15; Carter’s a gritty guy who can wrestle, go for legs, really is well-rounded. He was the runner up in the Austin Season 3 qualifier and was very impressive. People are sleeping on him due to his nonexistent social media game, but you won’t be sleeping on him after the first day.
BELOW AVERAGE
Jacob Mashburn – (blue) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $13; Here we have another competitor who could really benefit from having their real-life coach leading their team. Caleb has great beliefs in his student and will want to showcase his talents. Mashburn’s already showed us he can improve greatly in a handful of months (like between the two Decatur qualifiers) – he’s had another handful of months and you can bet Caleb has Jacob ready for this season.
Juan Martinez V (brown) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $13; the lead instructor at Childress BJJ in Pueblo, Colorado, Juan has whole school behind him. He’s experienced two qualifiers so he should be getting down the differences in adjusting to the six-minute game. He could surprise some folks.
Sam Acord (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $13; Another real-life student of Coach Applegate he could see a good amount of playing time. He’s also a very athletic, skilled young grappler who could be put in to shut down an opponent’s best player or to pick up some quick wins.
TJ Steinebach – (brown) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $13; I think TJ is going to surprise a lot of people. He came into the second Decatur qualifier and put on a show, only losing to Isaac Cordova. TJ is a gym owner who has a lot of mma and jiu jitsu experience. Like I said, he’s going to surprise a lot of folks.
Claire Mitchell – (purple) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $11; faces Joanie Chamberland (black belt) [LOSS], Emily “Cyanide” Hauser (blue belt) [LOSS]; Nekiaya Jackson (brown belt) [LOSS], Kaida Davis (brown belt) [LOSS] – 0 points. Claire is going to get a lot of experience this season. She may have a chance at catching Cyanide with a submission, but I’m betting on Cyanide (or a draw).
Jacob Arp – (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $11; Arp always puts on a good show. He’s constantly pushing the action and going for the submission. He could be a good play at this price point.
Matthew Boiles – (blue) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $11; All Matthew Boiles did was earn an at-large invite, then decide he wanted to go to another qualifier and win his way in…and he did. Boiles isn’t getting a lot of respect his season, but his motor and endurance should be very helpful for the Quintet format. At this price, he’s a steal..
Nick Sahf (blue) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $11; Sahf has only been training 18 months, but you’d never know it from his jiu jitsu. He’s a gritty, pressure-oriented grappler that gave folks fits at the Asheville qualifier. He’s training at 10th Planet Decatur now, so he’ll have lots of folks cheering for him and looking to give him advice..
PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.
Eric Longar (black) – Team Such N Such (Sean Applegate) – $9; It’s a crime he slid to the last round again this season. But it’s Longar’s time to put everyone in their place by showing them what a gym-owning black belt can do. He could definitely make some noise this season.
Alex Hall (purple) – Team Cantrell (Chewy) – $9; This young man is hungry. He’s living that poor jiu jitsu guy life and has every incentive to maximize his opportunities this season.
Billy Baxter (purple) – Team Supernatural Survival Gear (Caleb McAllister) – $9; Billy has a different style than most competitors in this field. I think this uniqueness may catch folks off guard. He could be a great pickup at this price.
Charles Muxo (blue) – Team Ironclad (Kemoy Anderson) – $9; Chaz Muxo has some underrated leg attacks. He’s very undersized for this season, but he’s going to surprise some folks.
If you’re a fan and think Egghead is wrong, feel free to hop on into the Day 1 live chat and let me know what you think.
Don’t forget PGF Season 4 starts at noon Central time on 26 October and continues the regular season on the 27th and 28th. The regular season is available for free on Brandon Mccagrhen’s YouTube channel. The post-season Finale will be on 29 October at noon and will be available for PPV through pgfhome.com.
Egghead Warrior's Blog 