PGF Season 2, Week 4 Fantasy Analysis

My apologies for the late submission of this analysis. I try to get it out at least by Thursday late evening. I had it done but didn’t have anything funny for my “monologue.” I never came up with anything funny (I can just hear some wise guy saying “what’s changed?”). Regardless, here’s some things to consider:

As has been mentioned in other mediums, we’re seeing two matches a week, but the PGF was filmed with three matches a night.  For tonight’s PGF broadcast, we have Blocks 6 and 7, meaning the last block of night 2 and the first block of night 3. So, if you’re a true egghead, you might go back to last week to see how tired a competitor might be after those two matches when you’re considering their readiness for the first match tonight. Likewise, you should consider the day rest the competitors will have had between their first match broadcast tonight and their second match.

I could talk about all kinds of things about this week. Quickly, I’d say the three matches I’m looking forward to most are Jake “Head” Elkins against Stephan “Shoeless Joe” Eakin, Matt “Maneless” Elkins against Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton, and Jake “Head” Elkins against Randy “Dump Truck” Roden. You can see below for more detailed analysis, but in that first matchup, you have two very bad men. In the second matchup, you have a third go round between the Mane and Elijah – regardless of the record, they’re both fan favorites. What new approach will the Mane use against the Bad Guy?  As for the third, it’s the most anticipated wrestling matchup of the season (seriously, go back and look at the season preview clip – multiple links below). Okay, I’ve waited long enough. Time to upload this thing.

Now on to the analysis for this week:

For your consideration, each fantasy team has 7 possible spots with a total salary cap of $120 for the week.  Any left-over funds do not carry over to the next week. While one could hypothetically maximize their chances at success at playing all 7 roster spots, we often found during season 1 that sacrificing a roster spot to secure more “sure things” was the way to go.

VERY ODD HOW FOLKS HAVE MOVED UP IN PRICE WITHOUT SECURING SUBMISSIONS LIKE KEMOY AND ZACK

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $28; faces Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) [KILL] and “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) [KILL] – 12 points.Elijah is batting 1.000 when it comes to triangle choking Elkins boys in the PGF during the regular season (he got Matt with a leg lock in the season 1 tournament). There’s no reason for Elijah to stop now. MEGA is big, but I think that sneaky triangle comes out again – it will be a win for MEGA if he can force Elijah to go for the leg lock.

Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) – $26; faces Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) [KILL] and James Regina (purple) [KILL] – 12 points.  Shoulder pressure isn’t going to cut it against the Kingpin; Sam takes Evans back for the RNC. Regina will sit for the leg lock. Sam will do a rolling kimura and take his back for another RNC kill.

Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) – $26; faces Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) [KILL] and “Judo” Justin Williams (blue) [KILL] – 12 points. Primeau is cagey and Colvin almost fell prey to some wristlocks from Sam when Sam was mounted. I’m a huge fan of the Pete Rose of the PGF (see season 1), but the Professional gets the kill. We already saw Colvin get to Judo’s back in the PGF season 2 promo (about 20 seconds in). Once Colvin gets your back, you’re done (kill).

Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) – $23; faces Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) [DRAW] and Joshua Gibbs (purple) [KILL] – 6 points. See analysis of first match below. If you put a gun to my head and made me choose a winner of the Eakin/Elkins match, I’m going with Eakin. But I’m not sure of the probability of that outcome. Draw is my official call. Eakin gets the dunk on Gibbs, though.

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) – $21; faces Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) [DRAW] and Randy “Dump Truck” Roden [KILL] – 6 points. I’m throwing darts here, seriously. Jake has the most exciting matches this week. I know Eakin has been looking forward to this match – he knows it will be tough, but he’s smart. I have to think the black belt gym owner has a plan for facing Elkins. But can Eakins experience and jiu-jitsu skill overcome Elkins’ wrestling and top pressure? I’m going to have the popcorn ready for this match. Then, we have PGF’s own WRESTLEMANIACS (if I said Wrestlemania, I might have to worry about trademark infringement). Given that Block 7 is the first match of day 3 means we have to fully rested top-notch wrestlers facing off. As Joe Kai said in week one, when you have two wrestlers in a bjj match, you tend to have a wrestle off. We saw some of that sweet chain wrestling in the PGF season 2 promo (at about 12 seconds in – seriously, I think I’ve watched that promo at least 30 times – Sons of Legion is DOPE as my highschooler would say). I get the feeling the elder statesman of wrestling will end up on top and use his mount to finish the Blue Blood.

PREMIUMS

Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) – $19; faces “Judo” Justin Williams (blue) [KILL] and Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) [KILL] – 12 points. Interesting that Kemoy got a bump since he hasn’t secured a submission as of yet. Well, the reason is the best possible schedule in the PGF. Two new blue belts are the cure for Kemoy’s submission blues. I’m on record as a fan of Kemoy’s style of aggressive pressure. While there’s a risk he kimura’s both blue belts, I think Kemoy knows he needs to get back in the game and will fight for the kill. Grayson is an athletic big ole boy himself and Judo has stymied others, but I think Kemoy’s aggression, skill, and strength can carry the day.

Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) – $18; faces Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS] and Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) [KILL] – 6 points. Until someone beats Elijah, you don’t bet against Elijah (PGF Rule #3). At some point, we’re going to see Squidbilly’s talent shine. Remember, block 7 is the first match of the third night, so Elkins has a day to gameplan to avoid Edwards 50/50 leg locks. We all know about Elkins’ injured knee, but we should also know Edwards has a tweaked elbow (see the kimura attempt from Eakin) and a hurt lower back. Not to take anything away from 8-Mile, but Edwards looked pretty limited in that match. I think Elkins finds a way to get the front headlock game going against Edwads and secures the kill.

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) – $17; faces Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) [LOSS] and Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) [BREAK] – 3 points. Primeau had some great success last week which were the two first matches of day two for the competitors. While he used his crafty jiu jitsu to not use too much energy, he’s still going to be a little tired coming into his match with “the Professional.” Colvin’s too good. Like Elijah, until someone beats Colvin, you can’t vote against him. While 8-mile has shown a lot of grinding pressure which we normally see out of Primeau, I have to think the Pete Rose of the PGF has some sneaky jiu jitsu up his sleeve. Primeau will find a way to not lose to the blue belt from the same school. This sneaky jiu jitsu might be another sneaky arm bar or a wrist lock. I will say this – if Primeau gets another wrist lock, his nickname will switch to Kevin “Prison Rules” Primeau.

Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) – $16; faces James Regina (purple) [BREAK] and Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) [LOSS]. Regina is a leg locker; Zack is a better leg locker. Zack gets the break. As mentioned above, I think Elkins gets the kill.

AVERAGE

Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) – $14; faces Sam “Keyser Soze” Barbosa (brown) [LOSS] and Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) [LOSS]. I’m not saying Evan can’t prove me wrong again, but these are two tough competitors he’s facing. The smart money isn’t betting on 8-Mile.

“MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – $14 – aka the world’s most mysterious man; faces Joshua Gibbs (purple) [KILL] and Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS]. We have our third match from the  PGF season 2 promo (at about 17 seconds in) with Mega facing Gibbs. It shows them standing with Mega getting Gibbs from behind but Gibbs rolls for a knee bar/or to grab a leg. Mega grabs one of Gibbs’ legs and drops his weight. I still give the Kill to MEGA – he’s just too big and strong. While technique can overcome size – they’re both purple belts. Mega has been a purple belt longer and he has the size – he gets the kill. Now Elijah has the skills and competition experience to overcome Mega’s size. Elijah will find a way to get the submission.

BELOW AVERAGE

Joshua Gibbs (purple) – $13; faces “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) [LOSS] and Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) [LOSS]. Gibbs is a game opponent, but he’s facing the big boys this week. I’m not betting on Gibbs pulling out a submission.

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $13; faces Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) [KILL] and Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) [LOSS]. Roden will be coming off a win against Judo so he should have some good confidence going into his match against Grayson. Grayson is an athletic competitor but he can’t out wrestle the blue blood. I’m guessing Roden gets the takedown then works his top position until he can get that head and arm choke. Even if Grayson sits guard like he did against Gibbs, I think Roden would disengage to pull Grayson back on his feet to give Roden a chance to get to the ground on his terms. Roden’s run ends when he runs into the Jake Elkins. We’re going to get a wrestling exhibition then Elkins is going to use his jiu jitsu skills to get that kill.

James Regina (purple) – $12; faces Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) [LOSS] andSam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) [LOSS]. See above. Regina isn’t likely to upset anyone today. If Edwards is still hurt, Regina could have a shot.

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) – $11; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [LOSS] and Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) [LOSS].See above. Grayson has a great attitude and you know he’s going to learn a ton this season.

Justin “Judo” Williams (blue) – $9; faces Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) [LOSS] and Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) [LOSS]. See above. Looking forward to seeing how his jiu jitsu evolves in the PGF.

PGF Week 4 Matchups

BLOCK 6:

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) v Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) – A big, bad wrestler faces a big, bad MMA fighter. Both transitioned to jiu jitsu after their first passions (of course Elkins still does just a bit of wrestling). Eakin’s been looking for a reason to sit guard; well this match might be that reason.  At the same time, Eakin might just want to stand with Elkins just to see what it’s like. As the black belt, Eakin should win, but Elkins is a beast. Eakin’s match against Barbosa shook my confidence in him a bit…but I think the Kingpin woke the sleeping giant in that match. Eakin’s seems to be a lot more motivated. I’m not sure if Elkins was looking forward to the match with Elkins, but Eakin was thinking about this match way before getting to Decatur. As I said above, put a gun to my head and I’m saying Eakin. But it could completely go either way or stall out for a draw.

“Judo” Justin Williams (blue) v Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) – KILL, Blue 6. Kemoy gets on the submission train with a win over Judo. Judo can defend, but Kemoy’s punishing style will be too much for the judoka.  Kemoy knows he needs to capitalize on this match so I think he forces the kill.

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) v Randy “Dump Truck” Roden (blue) – KILL, Blue 6 Grayson had the most impressive stats in the pre-season combine, but Roden does back flips on the regular. Both are blue belts, but Roden is a D1 athlete. D1 wrestlers are some of the best conditioned athletes in the world. I think Roden gets the kill. Grayson’s going to make him work for it, but every person I’ve seen interviewed has been super impressed by Roden.

Joshua Gibbs (purple) v “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – KILL RED 6. See above analysis. In short, bit/MEGA purple belt takes out smaller, more recently promoted purple belt. I’m a little concerned about Gibbs’ role for the knee bar from the  PGF season 2 promo but it looks like Mega is going to use his weight distribution to ensure he’s safe.

James Regina (purple) v Zach “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) – BREAK RED 3. As said above, I think the brown belt leg locker takes out the purple belt leg locker. The x-factor is Edwards’ lower back. If Edwards is limited, Regina could pull the upset. Probably safe to say not a lot of wrestling in this match.

Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) v Sam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) – KILL BLUE 6. After the “loss” to Covin, Sam’s going to want to get a dunk.  I think Sam’s realizing his relaxed/casual game play isn’t going to help him in the six-minute matches of the regular season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Barbosa came out with some more sense of urgency at the beginning of the match.

Matt “Maneless” Elkins (brown) v Elijah “the Bag Guy” Carlton (brown) – KILL, RED 6. In the NFL, they say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season (DAMN YOU TB, SAINTS STILL WON THE SERIES 2-1 THIS SEASON!). Elijah has now beat two Elkins boys via triangle choke in the PGF regular season (he got Matt also via leg lock in the season 1 tournament). Elkins may sit due to his knee. Apparently, having Elijah in top position is even worse than worrying about his triangle setups. In the season 1 tournament previews, I think we all figured Elkins would have to out grind Elijah to win, but Elijah tapped Elkins very quickly. Elijah knows he’s in a tight race with Hunter Colvin; he’s probably kicking himself for taking the break against Grayson. I think Elijah finds a way to get the kill against Elkins.  Matt’s a warrior for continuing to compete, using his C game (I think that’s what he said on the Daily Stack Podcast).  Elkins when he’s 100% hasn’t beat Elijah yet, so it’s hard to not bet on Elijah against a limited Elkins.

Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) v Kevin “Prison Rules” Primeau – KILL, BLUE 6. Colvin showed some possible susceptibility to wrist locks when he faced Sam Barbosa.  “Prison Rules” Primeau has shown he’s not afraid to use wrist locks.  Absent a super sneaky wrist lock, I think Colvin has this match. I know one of the PGF rules is not to go against Primeau, but until someone beats Colvin, you have to pick him.

Team Winner: BLUE, by 9 if you believe my picks. 9 should allow for one reversal (say the first match of the block) and still maintain blue as the team winner.

Block 7:

Sam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) v James Regina (purple) – KILL, BLUE 6. Regina sits. Sam does his rolling kimura and takes Regina’s back. Sam gets the RNC Kill.

Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) v Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) – KILL, BLUE 6.  Kemoy keeps it rolling with another submission. Kemoy knows he needs the points. Grayson is bigger and strong, but everyone says Kemoy is very strong. I could see Kemoy settling for the break, but I hope he forces the kill.

Randy “Dump Truck” Roden (blue) v Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) – KILL, RED 6. Jake shows some sick chain wrestling in the Season 2 promo against Roden. Elkins has awesome wrestling and great jiu jitsu.  My only worry is if the competitors spend too much time trying to out wrestle each other they don’t have enough time to get a submission. If there is a submission, it’s going to be a Jake kill of Roden.

“Judo” Justin Williams (blue) v Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) – KILL, BLUE 6. In the season 2 promo, we saw Colvin with a slick back take of Williams. Once Colvin gets your back, tap early; tap often.

Zach “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) v Matt “Maneless” Elkins (brown) – KILL, RED 6. Elkins finds a way to get the front headlock with a little seated wrestling and secures the kill. I’m a little concerned for how Edwards is doing. This block will be the first match of the third day so Edwards might have hit that hot tub and received massage therapy. I hope he’s recovered and makes it a good match.

Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) v Joshua Gibbs (purple) – KILL, BLUE 6. Eakin knows he needs the kill. Eakin gets the kill. Eakin won’t goon Gibbs like he did with Judo Williams, but he will go after the kill hard.

Elijah “the Bag Guy” Carlton (brown) v “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – KILL, RED 6. MEGA could push Elijah a bit, but Elijah has too much skill and competition experiences.

Kevin “Prison Rules” Primeau v Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) – BREAK, BLUE 3. The crafty purple belt doesn’t let the upstart blue belt take him down. Kevin finds a sneaky sub during the match.

Team Winner: Blue team takes it by 9 points. Again, Blue is ahead enough to have a complete flip of a kill and still get the team points.

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