PGF Week 6 Fantasy Analysis

Week 6 is in flux.  The Commish has been working to make it more interesting by rescheduling previous scratches.  I’ll keep updating as we get more information.  With the new matches things are getting much more interesting.  If it comes to fruition, we could have our first competitor with a four-match night (Canaan Brooks).  But my big pick of the week is a man on a mission, who needs to get some kills.  Kevin “the Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (yes, that’s a dig that he’s beating all of us in fantasy) returns with a full three matches.  He’s a bargain value with a nice lineup.  He either has to get some kills or be relegated to vying with us for fantasy supremacy alone.  Other than Primeau, you get what you pay for this week.  There could be some standout performances if things, but the odds are on the top performers (and costliest) showing why they’re expensive.

As always, I’ll update this analysis throughout the week as more information comes out through Matt Skaff’s Grappling Discourse podcast and through posts from the Commish.  I did a Week 5 Most Anticipated fights.  If you’d be interesting in reading more of those posts, let me know on Brandon’s facebook group.

If you haven’t already, consider supporting Mat Viper, the folks that brought us the PGF rashguards. The official rashguards are available at https://matviper.com/collections/rash-guards/products/pgf-official-blue-rash-guard (you can follow the link to find the orange one).  Since I can’t train currently (stupid Rona), I’m probably going to snag one of their sweet PGF t-shirts – the black one looks “dope” as my teenager would say (https://matviper.com/collections/tops/products/the-official-pgf-t-shirt). Now on to the analysis:

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $25 – Noah Randolph (blue), Casey Willbanks (blue). There’s a really strong chance Elijah steamrolls his opponents for two kills. But who knows, maybe Noah pulls a Mike “Manscape” Richey and makes Elijah settle for a break.  As much as Noah is a favorite underdog for fans, you have to give the consensus #1 his props. [14 points].

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $24 – Dallas Sharp (blue), Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue). Nilo faces three serious players in the PGF. I’m a big fan of Sharp and the Knee Barrista. Longar has shown he’s no joke as well recently. Still, I have to think Nilo gets three submissions here. As much as I poke at Nilo for always doing jumping jacks or other craziness on the side of the mats, it’s because the man has insane cardio. He has “weaponized pace” ala The Grappling Podcast episode. The one person I think may have a shot is the Knee Barrista who took the Elbow Genie deeper than anyone else, but Nilo’s trademark Marcelo seated wrestling can mitigate the collegiate wrestler’s standup. Nilo is a super premium, but worth every cent. [21 points]

Caleb McAllister (black) – $22 – Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (blue). Same situation as Elijah above.  I’d love to see Noah force the break or a draw, but I don’t see it happening.  Two kills. [14 points]

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $20 – Seth Tatum (blue…should be purple BMAC).  Only one fight for the Elbow Genie. He has shown he can actually choke someone pulling out the Darce (my personal and I believe the PGF’s favorite submission).  Still, Tatum is tough.  I’m a huge fan of Tatum, but I think he will leave one of those long limbs out for a split second and the Elbow Genie (who has shown a serious footlock game) will take an appendage home with him.  While the Elbow Genie will have a good shot at winning the tournament, he’s just not worth the roster spot this week.  [3 points]

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $20 – Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue), Dallas Sharp (blue) – Welcome to the Super Premiums! Elkins came up huge last week and will again this week. We’re seeing what happens with randomized draws…Elkins faced the cream of the crop the first couple of weeks and now has much more reasonable matches going forward. Still looking forward to watching the Elkins vs Manderson matchup as I was pulled away for domestic duties during the lightning sub by “the MANE.” BTW, I’m super happy that nickname has stuck.  I make fun of my son for him and his high school football teammates for the hippy hair they’re rocking. – [21 points].

PREMIUMS

SCRATCH Roger Coelho (black) – OUT FOR SEASON.

Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown) – $18 – ScratchCoehlo, ScratchBlackburn, Noah Randolph (blue).  So Kai gets the 4 points for the two scratches, then faces a familiar face in Noah Randolph.  Noah is a future star and has been tough to put away, but as long as Kai gets top position, he stands a good chance of weaponizing his pace (running downhill…listen to the podcast) and getting the kill vs Noah. [11 points]

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – BYE WEEK.

Moises Carrasco – $18 – BYE WEEK. Your new Western conference #1 will remain in the lead unless Joe Kai can get the kill against Noah (see below), then they would share the lead.

Mario Gaor (purple) – $17 – BYE WEEK.

Seth Tatum (blue) – $17 Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Canaan Brooks (blue). I’m a huge fan (read in Bernardo Faria voice, please) of Seth Tatum. But he’s up against the Elbow Genie. He could pull out a win, but it’s highly unlikely. With the late match add of Canaan Brooks, I think he gets the kills. Seth and Canaan have rolled enough they could cancel each other out…or you could have the footlocker Canaan do something sneaky with Tatum’s legs when he’s reaching out to get his triangle. But, I feel good about Tatum’s kill over Canaan.  [7 points].

AVERAGE

Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – $16 – Dennis Smith (white), Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple). The Liquid Terminator should handle the Boy Wonder.  Dennis Smith has great wrestling so the Boy Wonder’s wrestling shouldn’t take him out.  Still, the Boy Wonder has that sick leg lock game in reserve.  Randall should score 3 points of the break against Smith. [3 points]

Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Robert Autrey (white), Nilo Bergener (brown).  The Knee Barrista has a strong match, then a rough draw. The Knee Barrista has shown the ability to choke lower belts.  I’m going with one kill for [7 points].

Matt Anderson (beast) – $16 – BYE WEEK. Manderson was the recipient of a very favorable early lineup, but has slipped to fourth in the Western conference. With only two weeks left for him of opponents, including two serious competitors, he’ll likely make the tournament, but with not nearly as nice a draw as first imagined.

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Michael Libby (blue), Matt Elkins (brown). Michael Libby hasn’t shown a great record, but his rubber guard has been on point lately. While Malone likes the leg lock/ankle lock game, I think Libby could give him a run for his money at least to a draw. Elkins will likely smash Malone. [0 points].

Eric Longar (brown) – $15 – Robert Autrey (white), Michael Libby (blue), Nilo Bergener (brown. Nilo smokes Longar…sorry.  Longar gets two kills here.  Libby and Autrey have some size on Longar, but his top game and experience will win out. [14 points.]

Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) – $15 – Louis Collins (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue).  The Liquid Terminator has fallen out of the top 8 of the Western Conference.  He needs to make a statement to get ready for the tournament.  And as the Pete Rose of the PGF, he’ll likely bet on himself in fantasy this week.  These things all lead to a huge week for Primeau.  [21 14 points]. PICK OF THE WEEK!!!

SCRATCH Ridge Blackburn (black) – Out for season.

BELOW AVERAGE

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $14 – Nilo Bergener (brown), Michael Libby (blue), Matt Elkins (brown). Tough draw this week.  I’m inclined to give him the choke against Libby, but that could be a draw due to familiarity. The brown belts should beat Sharp, though I’m sure he’ll acquit himself well. [7 points].

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $14 – Stephen Mitchell (purple),  SCRATCHCoehlo.  He gets two points for the scratch.  I think he gets the leg lock against the Silver Fox. [3 points].

Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – Matt Elkins (brown), Kevin Primeau (purple), Seth Tatum (blue), Robert Autrey (white). Canaan has been out the last two weeks. This week will be a challenge both in quality and quantity of opponents.  [0 points].

Louis Collins (blue) – $13 – Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau, Dennis Smith(white). Primeau picks on the lower belt. Dennis Smith is a good wrestler, but gets leg locked. [3 points]. Scratch

Michael Libby (blue) – $13 – Clay Malone (blue), Dallas Sharp (blue), Eric Longar (brown). Libby has shown a nice rubber guard and leg lock game as of late, but I don’t think it’ll lead to points against these competitors. [0 points].

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – SCRATCHBlackburn (black), Noah Randolph (blue), Casey Wilbanks (blue). Manscape gets the two points for the scratch, and kills Wilbanks, but will have a hard time putting Noah away. Could be a bargain.  [9 points].

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 –Elijah Carlton (black), Mike Richey (white), Joe Kai (brown). Well, here’s one of the worst draws of the night.  Noah may give Richey a run for his money, but gets subbed by his other two opponents. [0 points]

Stephen Mitchell (purple) – $13 – Josh Diaddario (blue).  The silver fox may have a shot, but Diaddaio likely foot locks the old guy (note: I’m actually older than Mitchell, but you wouldn’t know from our photos, so I feel ok still calling him old.) [0 points].

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Robert Autrey (white) – $12 – Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue).  You could take a flyer on him to get a submission against Canaan, but it’s a gamble. [0 points].

Dennis Smith (white) – $11 –Louis Collins (blue), Blake Randall (blue), Mike Johnson (purple). Smith looked harder to kill last week, but I’m guessing Collins and Randall both sub him. I think Smith gets the kill on Johnson. [7 points].

Keahi Makekau (white) – $11 – BYE WEEK.

Robert Gladden (white) – $11 – SCRATCH. [0 points].

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $10 – Elijah Carlton (black), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white). He went from a bye week to a learning week. Willbanks has the belt advantage on Manscape, but Manscape is reputed to be in the top three strongest competitors in the PGF. [0 points].

Mike Johnson (purple) – $10 – BYE WEEK.

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