PGF Week 5 Fantasy Analysis

Back after a bye week, we return for Week 5 of the Professional Grappling Federation League Play.  A couple of reminders, you have $81 in your budget for you lineup.  Players earn 2 points if their opponent does not show up; 3 points for a “break” (joint lock); and 7 points for a “kill” (choke). 

I’ve separated the contestants into tiers based on price and provided the names of their opponents; some analysis on likely outcomes of matches; and estimated point total for the week.

This week I’m not giving you all the picks for my team. I’m highlighting my PICK OF THE WEEK!!! but you have to pick your own team. Without a further ado, onto the analysis:

UPDATE: ACCORDING TO THE COMMISH ROBERT GLADDEN, ROGER COEHLO, CALEB MCALISTER, CANAAN BROOKS, AND MIKE JOHNSON ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT. I’VE MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY BELOW.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $26 – Stephen Mitchell (purple), Roger Coelho (black), Ridge Blackburn (black) – I’m expecting Elijah to continue to be the buzzsaw consensus #1 guy getting ONE choke and 4 points for Ridge’s AND ROGER’S no showS  [11 points]

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $24 – BYE WEEK

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Caleb McAllister (black) – $21 – Ridge Blackburn (black), Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (purple) – moved up to super premiums this week. [16 points – two chokes and 2 for no show]

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $20 – Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue), Casey Willbanks (blue)  only two fights, moved up to super premiums this week, likely 6 points for the two breaks.

PREMIUMS

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Roger Coelho (black) – $19 – Elijah Carlton (black), Moises Carrasco. I think Elijah gets the win and Carrasco manages a tie. [0 points].

Seth Tatum (blue) – $18 – Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (blue). Tatum has the size advantage on Longar.  The Tatum/Geiger matchup could be more interesting. Tatum seem to have the edge with the ability to enter his game plan by sitting guard (thereby limiting Geiger’s collegiate wrestling advantage on the feet), but they’ve likely rolled so many times they could cancel each other’s games resulting in a tie.  [7 points].

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – Mario Gaor (purple), Dennis Smith (white). I’m going to say the SOD gets two chokes, but gets a little run for his money from Gaor. But with only two opponents, we only have [14 points].

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $18 – Matt Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – Elkins has had a tough lineup thus far.  This week is only slightly easier. He’s facing two top 10 players. Manderson has the edge on strength, but as I noted in my week 5 preview, it’s like the Hulk vs the Thing.  Elkins should have the skill advantage and get the sub. Boy Wonder has been a real surprise and gamer this season, and Collins has shown some grit in matches. Regardless, Elkins gets the nod for two kills and a break – [17 points].

Matt Anderson (beast) – $17 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown), Mario Gaor (purple). Manderson getting some serious respect shown by the big jump in price this week, putting him in premium category.  However, he’s only got two matches and at best is likely to tie with Elkins.  I’m saying Manderson crushes Gaor with his size and strength. [7 points].

Moises Carrasco – $17 – Roger Coelho (black), Ridge Blackburn (black), Noah Randolph (blue). I don’t feel I have an adequate sample size for Moises. He’s looked good. Best shot is to say ties Roger, gets the two points for Ridge no-show, and lands a darce on Noah (cheering for Noah, but Moises looked good with his headlock darce setup). [4 POINTS FOR TWO NO SHOWS]

AVERAGE

Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – $16 – Michael Libby (blue), Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown),  same price. Elkins is a bigger, more experienced wrestler and jiu jitsu player. I’ll give Randall a sub on Libby.  [7 points]

Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Keahi Makekau (white), Seth Tatum (blue).  Elbow Bae takes out the Knee Barrista. Geiger takes out the loss on Keahi…with a kill (he knows he needs the chokes when he can get them and his size and wrestling win out). Geiger v Tatum is at best a tie, unless he finds a sneaky knee bar, but Tatum should be guarding against that outcome.  [7 points].

Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown) – $16 – Casey Willbanks (blue), Josh Diaddario (blue), Stephen Mitchell (purple).  Kai’s coming off a few weeks of rest.  He’s well acquainted with his opponents this week.  Kai is fast, creative, and should know how to take out his 10th Planet Decatur teammates. [21 points] – PICK OF THE WEEK!!!

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Robert Autrey (white). Malone has two kills and two breaks. Autrey is winless. Malone for the kill. [7 points]

Eric Longar (brown) – $15 – Keahi Makekau (white), Seth Tatum (blue), Robert Gladden (white). Longar gets two kills, but can’t take Tatums. [9 points.]

Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) – $15 – BYE WEEK, but keep an eye out for him next week as he’ll likely be a bargain (like Joe Kai above). Also, check out his interview on Matt Skaff’s Grappling Discourse podcast.

Mario Gaor (purple) – $15 – Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown), Matt Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue) – I don’t feel good about calling any matches for Gaor. He might take Collins as Gaor has more points, but Collins has more wins. [0 points].

Ridge Blackburn (black) – $15 – Caleb McAllister (black), Moises Carrasco,  Elijah Carlton (black)      I think he’s injured and out for foreseeable future, if there was a week to skip, it would be this one and that murderer’s row of competitors. [0 points]

BELOW AVERAGE

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $14 – BYE WEEK

Louis Collins (blue) – $14 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown),  Mario Gaor (purple). He’s coming off a 10 point week but is facing an uphill battle against Elkins.  His match with Gaor is a tossup so I’ll hedge my bets saying [0 points].

Stephen Mitchell (purple) – $14 – Elijah Carlton (black), Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown). A week to learn, [0 points].

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – Robert Autrey (white), Michael Libby (blue). If he shows, this week could be his best week.  The question is does his cardio work.  He likes the leg game, so let’s bet [6 points].

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $13 – Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown), Casey Willbanks (blue).  His match against Kai will be no laughing matter…hahahaha, I had to, but I’ll give him the leg lock against Willbanks. [3 points].

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – BYE WEEK

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 – Dennis Smith (white), Caleb McAllister (black), Moises Carrasco. Noah has a great future. I think he’ll get Smith and he gets 2 for Caleb not showing up, but Moises too much experience on him. [9 points]

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Dennis Smith (white) – $12 – Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (purple), Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown). Smith gets his second kill of the season against Johnson – edit Johnson is out so no points. [0 points].

Keahi Makekau (white) – $12 – Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue). [0 points]

Michael Libby (blue) – $12 – Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue). [0 points].

Robert Autrey (white) – $12 – Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue). [0 points].

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Mike Johnson (purple) – $11 – Dennis Smith (white), Caleb McAllister (black) [0 points].

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Robert Gladden (white) – $11 – Eric Longar (brown) [0 points].

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $10 – Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown), Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Josh Diaddario (blue) [0 points].

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: