PGF Week 7: Most Anticipated Matches

Got a case of the Mondays? Don’t worry, it’s only three days and a wake up before we get to experience more Professional Grappling Federation action. 

For the second half of the season, I’m going to put out a quick rundown of the top five anticipated matches for the upcoming week.  Something to whet the appetite or the upcoming week. 

As I was preparing the fantasy breakdown, I noticed a number of our steady performers were not good fantasy plays for the week.  Not because they suddenly lost their skill, they stopped being good fantasy plays because they’re facing great competition.  Let’s break down the top five most anticipated matches:

BONUS MATCH: Elijah Carlton (black) v Blake Randall (blue) –  Student versus master. Player versus coach. Elijah talked up his blue belt coming with him from Southside Jiujitsu Club in Chattanooga, TN.   Blake Randall has earned the monicker “Boy Wonder” for his explosiveness, grit, and overall skill.  If they carpool to the matches, I wonder how much tension occurs during those two hours.  As neat conceptually as this matchup sounds, it’s not a “Whose Daddy now” moment for Randall.  Elijah has soundly smashed every opponent. He may be a little nicer to his protégé, but the result will be the same.

5. Elijah Carlton (black) v Matt Anderson (beast) – Two of the larger competitors who could easily come back for season 2 (the big boys), Elijah and Anderson could be interesting.  After Elkins slick, quick submission on him, I have to believe Anderson will be very cautious. It’s likely Elijah will go after Anderson’s legs.  It will be interesting to see if Anderson can force a grinding match where he can use his strength to make up for the difference in experience.

4. Joe “Flying Triangle” Kai (brown) v Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (brown) – These opponents are two fan favorites.  The Scarecrow of Doom (SOD) can pull people in his closed guard where he has a phenomenal triangle.  The SOD has also shown some unexpected wrestling, given his guard-pulling game.  Kai’s speed and elusiveness will be difficult for the SOD.  Last week Kai showed know rust from his multiple-week hiatus, getting some great Marce chokes and calling his shot with a flying triangle finish.  I think Kai takes the win, but it should be a great match.

3. Matt Anderson (beast) v Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – This match should be the Hulk vs the Thing match-up I was expecting when Anderson faced Elkins.  In that matchup, I didn’t appreciate the craftiness of the brown belt.  Here, we have a white belt behemoth battle. Anderson is a national-level power lifter, posting truly high-quality athletic stats at the combine.  That said, the commentators last week said Mike “Manscape” Richey is stronger than Anderson.  Chiseled from granite and meticulously manscaped, Richey has proven to be a very tough competitor to submit.  He even made Elijah Carlton settle for a break instead of a kill (the only other opponent to only suffer a break was Nilo Bergener who is only one point behind Elijah for the Eastern Conference lead).  While Anderson is a judo brown belt, Manscape has shown great wrestling.  I think we could be in for a match highlighting the respective opponents’ athleticism and grit.

2. Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) v Matt “The Mane” Elkins (brown) – Elbow Genie has submitted every opponent he’s faced, but with only one choke amongst those wins he is only in fifth place in the Western conference.  Generally, Elbow Genie quickly submits his opponents with an arm bar or leg lock.  The Mane has secured all his victories with kills/chokes.  While the Mane is listed as Ironclad Wrestling on the fantasy site, they are both Birmingham Straight Blast Gym teammates.  That familiarity could lead to a great match like when we saw the Mane go against their fellow teammate Roger Coehlo.  These are two of the best competitors in the PGF; their match will not disappoint.

1. Nilo “the Mop” Bergener v Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts – This match means more than one can see from the standings.  As mentioned above, the Elbow Genie has submitted every opponent he has faced.  Nilo’s one loss was against Elijah Carlton in his first match as part of the PGF. Since that match, Nilo has been on a tear through the league.  It’s Elbow Genie’s first match of the night so he will be fresh.  Going against the cardio freak Nilo, Roberts will need all his gas (seriously, I’d say it’s 50/50 Nilo hits at least 200 jumping jacks on the side of the mat before this match starts). These competitors are both highly skilled. One interesting thing is how the action will start – will we get a double-guard sit?  The Elbow Genie likes to sit down to setup his clinches.  Nilo likes to sit guard but often turns it into a seated-wrestling situation, coming up for a double-leg or ankle pick. If Nilo can keep up his frenzied, constant attack and get a scramble going, I think he takes the match.  If the Elbow Genie can slow down the cardio king, the Elbow Genie can show us all what will happen in the tournament when all that matters is the submission.

I hope you like the roll-up of my most anticipated matches for Week 7.  I’m really looking forward to these matches. I will push out my Week 7 fantasy analysis on Wednesday.

Krav Maga, “the rest of the story”

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): Krav Maga is an outstanding self-defense discipline if done correctly. Even as a solid self-defense base, you should supplement it with jiu-jitsu (as I’d recommend for any striking-focused art). As with any discipline, caveat emptor (buyer beware), make sure you’re learning from a legit instructor. I would heartily encourage anyone to learn Krav Maga from a good instructor, at a good gym.

In Episode #126 of the Grappling Discourse Podcast, Matt Skaff decided to rant about Krav Maga. In short, I do not agree with his analysis of Krav Maga. I believe his rant is largely due to hasty generalizations and availability bias.

For you Stephen Covey fans, I embrace the idea of “Seek to understand, then to be understood.” Matt Skaff is a 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Black Belt under Brandon Mccaghren from 10th Planet Decatur. Brandon Mccaghren is a black belt under 10th Planet founder Eddie Bravo. But more than being a 10th Planet black belt, Matt Skaff is a very thoughtful person. I’ve listened to almost all 127 of his podcast episodes and seen him in many 10th Planet Decatur YouTube videos, interacting with him via YouTube chats and Instagram DMs. Skaff seems to have a good heart, the desire to help others, and the desire to continue learning and improving himself.

While Skaff is a very thoughtful, intelligent individual, I disagree with the main premise of his rant, denigrating Krav Maga. Even though Skaff is ranting on Krav Maga, his good nature and thoughtfulness have him providing caveats throughout. First, he notes he doesn’t know any experts in Krav Maga and hasn’t attended any Krav Maga classes. His best exposure is his cousin’s wife who trained Krav Maga for a couple of years at what was purportedly a legit place in California. The rest of his experience with Krav Maga practitioners was gained from random folks in Alabama. While Skaff provided the caveat of his inexperience, he still went on to rant based on his availability bias. Availability bias is our mind’s tendency to believe examples that come to mind are more representative than is the case. (read Thinking, Fast and Slow – it’s an amazing book). I’ll address his specific concerns with Krav Maga after a quick interlude regarding my availability bias.

While many folks Krav Maga introduction might have been through Discovery Channel’s Fight Quest or History Channel’s Human Weapon (dueling shows with the same premise that traveled to different lands to explore their martial arts), I first heard of Krav Maga on a show called NUMB3RS on CBS. Specifically, it gave the same story of Krav Maga being made for the Israeli Defense Force and worked the discipline into the episode due to a suspect using a Krav Maga technique to disarm a pistol-wielding guard. Like so many others, the discipline sounded interesting. At the time, I’d dabbled in kenpo karate, wing chun, and some thai boxing, but all very brief and somewhat non-traditional. Then, in 2012, serendipity hit. I was working and living less than one mile from a phenomenal Krav Maga studio. I had an acquaintance from work tell me how she enjoyed their training. I first got my son involved in their kids program (it’s the foot in the door for a father of three). Then, I found I could study at the same time as my son as they had four training areas. Street Smarts Krav Maga that would later become Triumph Krav Maga had the first three resident black belts from Krav Maga Worldwide in Louisiana. My son and I trained there for 2.5-3 years, basically until I injured my knee, leading to surgery (not their fault I was doing lots of physical training on the side and that whole getting old thing). So, I’m a big fan of Krav Maga instruction as provided by Triumph Krav Maga in New Orleans. One of their former instructors who used to teach my son is hovering near the top 10 of the UFC for female bantamweights (seriously, sometimes he’d be the only one to show to the kid’s level 2 class and he would get to spar and get instructed one-on-one by her for an hour for no extra charge). When I’ve gone back to see family or go on work trips back to New Orleans, they welcomed me back as family and the training was still top notch. Sadly, due to COVID, they have had to shutter their doors for good, leaving a lot of lives improved for the better.

But now that I’ve shared my experience with Krav Maga, let’s talk about Skaff’s issues with the discipline. Let’s talk about the lady who was a brown belt in karate (getting it in 1.5 years) who was also very much out of shape. Okay, Skaff pauses to note she got her brown belt in karate in a ridiculously short time and she apparently only cared about her body enough to throw money at it (paying a personal trainer). Should it surprise us she’s all about weak-sauce opportunities to gain “accolades” with little expenditure of time or effort, just having to spend some cash? Accordingly, this lady spent 12 hours in a two-day course in Knoxville to gain some certificate saying she could instruct Krav Maga. We all know this certification is B.S. Skaff says this group is some sort of IBJJF group. I don’t know which organization they were, but we all know they were B.S. Krav Maga World Wide has much stricter standards for their level 1/Yellow Belt instructors “Phase A is a 7-day (56-hour) intensive instructor course that develops candidates’ physical skills, teaching skills, and fundamental knowledge to teach Level 1 Krav Maga classes. The course culminates with physical, teaching, and written examinations on the course material. Successful candidates typically have a robust athletic background and previous experience teaching self-defense or other contact-based sports. Candidates who pass Phase A are eligible to teach Level 1 Krav Maga classes.” I know a lot of folks that went through Phase A. I was hoping to go before I started having my knee issues (four surgeries thus far). The folks who have gone and earned their Phase A instructor creds are WARRIORS! They trained very hard for weeks before the course to prepare. No slob is getting through that course. And as far as I know, it’s only held at Krav Maga Worldwide HQ in LA. Again, I don’t know who this karate brown belt was or what entity purported to certify her in teaching krav maga, but I think we would all agree this lady and any organization who certified her is a joke.

As for the other folks in the region who Skaff has ran across in the Alabama area, he says they’re generally older, out of shape, and look down on other arts with live training. Skaff rightly adjudges these folks as using their krav maga training as a cop out. Later on, he talks about one of the Elkins brother running into a guy who said he trained in krav maga and was “dangerous” only to get whupped by the Elkins brother. Skaff uses these examples to dismiss krav maga. Later on, Skaff notes many karate schools have started advertising “hot” martial arts like jiu jitsu or krav maga to add luster to their fading names. I’ve experienced this same phenomenon. After New Orleans, I’ve lived in Charlottesville, VA, Oceanside, CA, and New Bern, NC, and I’ve never trained Krav Maga in any of these locations. I found a Krav Maga Worldwide affiliated spot in Vista, CA, but they had to close that location, consolidating to other locations too far away for my family. In Charlottesville and New Bern, I found exactly what Skaff mentioned – karate schools who advertised Krav Maga but were very sketchy on their instructors belts or certifying organizations. When I started pressing them, they got very evasive and I knew it wasn’t worth me or my family’s time. These individuals Skaff and the Elkins ran into more than likely trained at faux krav maga gyms. Let’s look at how those faux gyms may have tried to cover their sketchiness.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, Antifragile) uses “thought experiments” to test hypothesis. Lawyers might call it speculation, but let’s do a thought experiment on these sketchy krav maga instructors. If I was a sketchy instructor who didn’t know how to really practice krav maga, didn’t know how to really get folks to practice the techniques safely, and wanted to get as many folks in my classes as possible, how would I accomplish this mission? Well, maybe I’d start by adding an air of mysticism, saying these techniques were too dangerous to train on anyone. I could add by saying those who were taught by me were so dangerous they should not even engage in discussions with practitioners of other arts about the superiority of our discipline. This diatribe could achieve a few things 1) since we would not spar or provide real resistance, I could get away with letting the severely out of shape continue to train with little resistance…the “kata” Skaff mentions, 2) it could build the self-esteem, though falsely, of my trainees so they felt they were getting the “truth” from me, 3) they would be less likely to question my authority.

Part of Skaff’s problem with Krav Maga is his exposure to questionable practitioners of the discipline. To find a purported decent Krav Maga location, I would check this link. There is no location in Alabama. I looked at the Nashville spot and I wasn’t impressed with the lack of bio for the head instuctor (which could just be bad online advertising). As I mentioned above, caveat emptor: buyer beware. Before you train anywhere, you need to vet the instructors. Check them not only through their bios but try out their classes as well.

Going back to the issue of live training with Krav Maga, there’s some workarounds. For the Krav Maga handshake, also known as the groin kick, we use tombstone pads (a great pad with multiple surfaces for hammer strikes, straight strikes, kicks, etc.), put between your legs allows you to hammer groin kicks without hurting your partner. But, at least in my Triumph Krav Maga education, we would use sparring as part of level 2/level 3 classes and the also had specific sparring classes (which were awesome). This sparring included headgear, gloves (MMA or boxing), cup, mouthguard, and shin guards. My yellow belt test was 3.5 hours or so which included lots of physical endurance/heart training/questioning and a great even where everyone in the class got to go after you to choke you from different angles/or headlock you. This live choke/headlock challenge tested your ability to use the self defense techniques even after exhaustion. During my level 2 test, another 3.5-4.5 hour event, we incorporated more sparring where everyone threw on their head gear, shin guards, mouth pieces, gloves, etc. and did a bull in the ring or more experience (all this after the physical exhaustion test and technique test). So, smart Krav Maga gyms build live training into their practice. While some lower level belt stuff can feel like kata, it all has truth behind it and I always laid hands on and kicked pads during every lesson, especially during level 1 classes.

The Bas Rutten issue: Skaff and BMAC threw in a Bas Rutten story about him putting an upstart krav maga guy into a rear naked choke when the krav maga guy said “what would you do if I eye gouged you.” The usual punch line is Bas Rutten said “if you do that I’ll snap your neck.” Okay, compare that RUMINT (rumor intelligence) with this statement by Bas Rutten. Or we could look at Bas Rutten participating in this seminar. But there’s always Bas Rutten’s foreward in “Complete Krav Maga.” Sufficed to say, we have all encountered martial arts posers. Even though we encounter a poser, it doesn’t mean the art they espouse is trash. I would say the preponderance of the evidence has Bas Rutten supporting Krav Maga as a discipline.

So, should law enforcement train in Krav Maga? Well, Krav Maga Worldwide has specific law enforcement training. I would highly recommend it. Another thing to consider is one of Triumph Krav Maga’s classes was weapons. It was a class designed specifically for countering weapons, including long guns, hand guns, knives, etc. I attended this class as much as possible. These techniques are usually under the higher belt curriculum, but too valuable not to pass up if allowed. Law enforcement and I think anyone would be well served by knowing how to counter different weapons. I found the techniques sound and achievable. I would wholeheartedly recommend law enforcement take the law enforcement seminar and the weapons defense. I would also recommend they take every other course offered by good Krav Maga Schools. Now, does that mean I think the should do so exclusively? No. I definitely agree with Skaff and his interviewee Kevin Primeau who both espouse the idea law enforcement should study brazilian jiu jitsu. I completely agree. As someone who has been responsible for detainee operations and trained folks in it, I would feel much better if those handling detainees knew how to manipulate unarmed opponents. I do truly believe all law enforcement should train BJJ. But, just because BJJ should be a mandatory training element for law enforcement does not mean they should not train Krav Maga.

As Skaff saved himself with the caveat that all martial artists should look to apply different techniques from different arts, I think Krav Maga practitioners need jiu jitsu. When I’d been training in Krav Maga for maybe six months, the folks knew I was a fairly heavy hitter (or maybe I have some rose colored glasses) so they invited me to their “Spar Wars.” I agreed and quickly found myself against guys who’d trained much more than me. I found success using my high school wrestling and limited jiu jitsu found in another discipline in which I’d trained. As the future UFC player stated, “that’s that tactical jiu jitsu you learned, huh,” or words to that effect. So, I was able to stifle a lot of stand-up by taking folks down and using different joint locks or ground and pound. Now, whether right or not, I think that showing led to a lot of cross-training of the folks, including instructors, in that gym. The owner of the gym later became a brown belt in BJJ. Many others of the mainstays I trained with became blue and purple belts (so far) in BJJ. My point is that Krav Maga teaches you to get off the ground because you don’t want to be kicked in the head by your opponent’s friends, etc. They don’t like the ground game because it introduces risk into a life or death situation. So, the majority of their ground game is getting back to standing. While this stance is understandable, you’re leaving a big gap in your training with no real ground game.

In the end, Krav Maga gyms can be great places to learn self defense and get in great shape. They take normal people and help build the controlled aggression to save their lives in a self-defense situation. Krav Maga’s mantra is to get home safe.

While I feel required to respond to Matt Skaff’s Grappling Discourse podcast rant, I appreciate the measured judgments he provided to any martial arts discipline who would seem to support the empirical evidence he had experienced. I’m here to say real Krav Maga and its practitioners are not what most have seen in Alabama to date. My old head instructor who had to relinquish his school is now traveling the country giving seminars, somewhat Kung Fu’s Caine style. I’m going to keep an eye on him. If he gets close to Decatur, I’m going to recommend a rendezvous. As always, nothing but mad respect for 10th Planet Decatur, BMAC, and Matt Skaff, but I think Skaff fell prey to faulty evidence on this issue.

BTW, Skaff has a present coming his way to 10th Planet Decatur in the next week related to this subject (Aug 26-27th). When I finally make it out to train there, I can sign it from “the Egghead Warrior.”

Thanks for your patience with this long post. If it does well, I may talk about my path with jiu-jitsu, boxing, and other martial arts in more detail. I’m also considering adding my experiences/training with firearms and edged weapons as well as fishing and hunting. Let me know if anything interests you. Best, Egghead.

PGF Week 6 Fantasy Analysis

Week 6 is in flux.  The Commish has been working to make it more interesting by rescheduling previous scratches.  I’ll keep updating as we get more information.  With the new matches things are getting much more interesting.  If it comes to fruition, we could have our first competitor with a four-match night (Canaan Brooks).  But my big pick of the week is a man on a mission, who needs to get some kills.  Kevin “the Pete Rose of the PGF” Primeau (yes, that’s a dig that he’s beating all of us in fantasy) returns with a full three matches.  He’s a bargain value with a nice lineup.  He either has to get some kills or be relegated to vying with us for fantasy supremacy alone.  Other than Primeau, you get what you pay for this week.  There could be some standout performances if things, but the odds are on the top performers (and costliest) showing why they’re expensive.

As always, I’ll update this analysis throughout the week as more information comes out through Matt Skaff’s Grappling Discourse podcast and through posts from the Commish.  I did a Week 5 Most Anticipated fights.  If you’d be interesting in reading more of those posts, let me know on Brandon’s facebook group.

If you haven’t already, consider supporting Mat Viper, the folks that brought us the PGF rashguards. The official rashguards are available at https://matviper.com/collections/rash-guards/products/pgf-official-blue-rash-guard (you can follow the link to find the orange one).  Since I can’t train currently (stupid Rona), I’m probably going to snag one of their sweet PGF t-shirts – the black one looks “dope” as my teenager would say (https://matviper.com/collections/tops/products/the-official-pgf-t-shirt). Now on to the analysis:

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $25 – Noah Randolph (blue), Casey Willbanks (blue). There’s a really strong chance Elijah steamrolls his opponents for two kills. But who knows, maybe Noah pulls a Mike “Manscape” Richey and makes Elijah settle for a break.  As much as Noah is a favorite underdog for fans, you have to give the consensus #1 his props. [14 points].

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $24 – Dallas Sharp (blue), Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue). Nilo faces three serious players in the PGF. I’m a big fan of Sharp and the Knee Barrista. Longar has shown he’s no joke as well recently. Still, I have to think Nilo gets three submissions here. As much as I poke at Nilo for always doing jumping jacks or other craziness on the side of the mats, it’s because the man has insane cardio. He has “weaponized pace” ala The Grappling Podcast episode. The one person I think may have a shot is the Knee Barrista who took the Elbow Genie deeper than anyone else, but Nilo’s trademark Marcelo seated wrestling can mitigate the collegiate wrestler’s standup. Nilo is a super premium, but worth every cent. [21 points]

Caleb McAllister (black) – $22 – Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (blue). Same situation as Elijah above.  I’d love to see Noah force the break or a draw, but I don’t see it happening.  Two kills. [14 points]

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $20 – Seth Tatum (blue…should be purple BMAC).  Only one fight for the Elbow Genie. He has shown he can actually choke someone pulling out the Darce (my personal and I believe the PGF’s favorite submission).  Still, Tatum is tough.  I’m a huge fan of Tatum, but I think he will leave one of those long limbs out for a split second and the Elbow Genie (who has shown a serious footlock game) will take an appendage home with him.  While the Elbow Genie will have a good shot at winning the tournament, he’s just not worth the roster spot this week.  [3 points]

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $20 – Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue), Dallas Sharp (blue) – Welcome to the Super Premiums! Elkins came up huge last week and will again this week. We’re seeing what happens with randomized draws…Elkins faced the cream of the crop the first couple of weeks and now has much more reasonable matches going forward. Still looking forward to watching the Elkins vs Manderson matchup as I was pulled away for domestic duties during the lightning sub by “the MANE.” BTW, I’m super happy that nickname has stuck.  I make fun of my son for him and his high school football teammates for the hippy hair they’re rocking. – [21 points].

PREMIUMS

SCRATCH Roger Coelho (black) – OUT FOR SEASON.

Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown) – $18 – ScratchCoehlo, ScratchBlackburn, Noah Randolph (blue).  So Kai gets the 4 points for the two scratches, then faces a familiar face in Noah Randolph.  Noah is a future star and has been tough to put away, but as long as Kai gets top position, he stands a good chance of weaponizing his pace (running downhill…listen to the podcast) and getting the kill vs Noah. [11 points]

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – BYE WEEK.

Moises Carrasco – $18 – BYE WEEK. Your new Western conference #1 will remain in the lead unless Joe Kai can get the kill against Noah (see below), then they would share the lead.

Mario Gaor (purple) – $17 – BYE WEEK.

Seth Tatum (blue) – $17 Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Canaan Brooks (blue). I’m a huge fan (read in Bernardo Faria voice, please) of Seth Tatum. But he’s up against the Elbow Genie. He could pull out a win, but it’s highly unlikely. With the late match add of Canaan Brooks, I think he gets the kills. Seth and Canaan have rolled enough they could cancel each other out…or you could have the footlocker Canaan do something sneaky with Tatum’s legs when he’s reaching out to get his triangle. But, I feel good about Tatum’s kill over Canaan.  [7 points].

AVERAGE

Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – $16 – Dennis Smith (white), Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple). The Liquid Terminator should handle the Boy Wonder.  Dennis Smith has great wrestling so the Boy Wonder’s wrestling shouldn’t take him out.  Still, the Boy Wonder has that sick leg lock game in reserve.  Randall should score 3 points of the break against Smith. [3 points]

Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Robert Autrey (white), Nilo Bergener (brown).  The Knee Barrista has a strong match, then a rough draw. The Knee Barrista has shown the ability to choke lower belts.  I’m going with one kill for [7 points].

Matt Anderson (beast) – $16 – BYE WEEK. Manderson was the recipient of a very favorable early lineup, but has slipped to fourth in the Western conference. With only two weeks left for him of opponents, including two serious competitors, he’ll likely make the tournament, but with not nearly as nice a draw as first imagined.

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Michael Libby (blue), Matt Elkins (brown). Michael Libby hasn’t shown a great record, but his rubber guard has been on point lately. While Malone likes the leg lock/ankle lock game, I think Libby could give him a run for his money at least to a draw. Elkins will likely smash Malone. [0 points].

Eric Longar (brown) – $15 – Robert Autrey (white), Michael Libby (blue), Nilo Bergener (brown. Nilo smokes Longar…sorry.  Longar gets two kills here.  Libby and Autrey have some size on Longar, but his top game and experience will win out. [14 points.]

Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) – $15 – Louis Collins (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue).  The Liquid Terminator has fallen out of the top 8 of the Western Conference.  He needs to make a statement to get ready for the tournament.  And as the Pete Rose of the PGF, he’ll likely bet on himself in fantasy this week.  These things all lead to a huge week for Primeau.  [21 14 points]. PICK OF THE WEEK!!!

SCRATCH Ridge Blackburn (black) – Out for season.

BELOW AVERAGE

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $14 – Nilo Bergener (brown), Michael Libby (blue), Matt Elkins (brown). Tough draw this week.  I’m inclined to give him the choke against Libby, but that could be a draw due to familiarity. The brown belts should beat Sharp, though I’m sure he’ll acquit himself well. [7 points].

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $14 – Stephen Mitchell (purple),  SCRATCHCoehlo.  He gets two points for the scratch.  I think he gets the leg lock against the Silver Fox. [3 points].

Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – Matt Elkins (brown), Kevin Primeau (purple), Seth Tatum (blue), Robert Autrey (white). Canaan has been out the last two weeks. This week will be a challenge both in quality and quantity of opponents.  [0 points].

Louis Collins (blue) – $13 – Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau, Dennis Smith(white). Primeau picks on the lower belt. Dennis Smith is a good wrestler, but gets leg locked. [3 points]. Scratch

Michael Libby (blue) – $13 – Clay Malone (blue), Dallas Sharp (blue), Eric Longar (brown). Libby has shown a nice rubber guard and leg lock game as of late, but I don’t think it’ll lead to points against these competitors. [0 points].

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – SCRATCHBlackburn (black), Noah Randolph (blue), Casey Wilbanks (blue). Manscape gets the two points for the scratch, and kills Wilbanks, but will have a hard time putting Noah away. Could be a bargain.  [9 points].

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 –Elijah Carlton (black), Mike Richey (white), Joe Kai (brown). Well, here’s one of the worst draws of the night.  Noah may give Richey a run for his money, but gets subbed by his other two opponents. [0 points]

Stephen Mitchell (purple) – $13 – Josh Diaddario (blue).  The silver fox may have a shot, but Diaddaio likely foot locks the old guy (note: I’m actually older than Mitchell, but you wouldn’t know from our photos, so I feel ok still calling him old.) [0 points].

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Robert Autrey (white) – $12 – Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue).  You could take a flyer on him to get a submission against Canaan, but it’s a gamble. [0 points].

Dennis Smith (white) – $11 –Louis Collins (blue), Blake Randall (blue), Mike Johnson (purple). Smith looked harder to kill last week, but I’m guessing Collins and Randall both sub him. I think Smith gets the kill on Johnson. [7 points].

Keahi Makekau (white) – $11 – BYE WEEK.

Robert Gladden (white) – $11 – SCRATCH. [0 points].

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $10 – Elijah Carlton (black), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white). He went from a bye week to a learning week. Willbanks has the belt advantage on Manscape, but Manscape is reputed to be in the top three strongest competitors in the PGF. [0 points].

Mike Johnson (purple) – $10 – BYE WEEK.

PGF Week 5 Fantasy Analysis

Back after a bye week, we return for Week 5 of the Professional Grappling Federation League Play.  A couple of reminders, you have $81 in your budget for you lineup.  Players earn 2 points if their opponent does not show up; 3 points for a “break” (joint lock); and 7 points for a “kill” (choke). 

I’ve separated the contestants into tiers based on price and provided the names of their opponents; some analysis on likely outcomes of matches; and estimated point total for the week.

This week I’m not giving you all the picks for my team. I’m highlighting my PICK OF THE WEEK!!! but you have to pick your own team. Without a further ado, onto the analysis:

UPDATE: ACCORDING TO THE COMMISH ROBERT GLADDEN, ROGER COEHLO, CALEB MCALISTER, CANAAN BROOKS, AND MIKE JOHNSON ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT. I’VE MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY BELOW.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $26 – Stephen Mitchell (purple), Roger Coelho (black), Ridge Blackburn (black) – I’m expecting Elijah to continue to be the buzzsaw consensus #1 guy getting ONE choke and 4 points for Ridge’s AND ROGER’S no showS  [11 points]

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $24 – BYE WEEK

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Caleb McAllister (black) – $21 – Ridge Blackburn (black), Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (purple) – moved up to super premiums this week. [16 points – two chokes and 2 for no show]

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $20 – Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue), Casey Willbanks (blue)  only two fights, moved up to super premiums this week, likely 6 points for the two breaks.

PREMIUMS

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Roger Coelho (black) – $19 – Elijah Carlton (black), Moises Carrasco. I think Elijah gets the win and Carrasco manages a tie. [0 points].

Seth Tatum (blue) – $18 – Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (blue). Tatum has the size advantage on Longar.  The Tatum/Geiger matchup could be more interesting. Tatum seem to have the edge with the ability to enter his game plan by sitting guard (thereby limiting Geiger’s collegiate wrestling advantage on the feet), but they’ve likely rolled so many times they could cancel each other’s games resulting in a tie.  [7 points].

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – Mario Gaor (purple), Dennis Smith (white). I’m going to say the SOD gets two chokes, but gets a little run for his money from Gaor. But with only two opponents, we only have [14 points].

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $18 – Matt Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – Elkins has had a tough lineup thus far.  This week is only slightly easier. He’s facing two top 10 players. Manderson has the edge on strength, but as I noted in my week 5 preview, it’s like the Hulk vs the Thing.  Elkins should have the skill advantage and get the sub. Boy Wonder has been a real surprise and gamer this season, and Collins has shown some grit in matches. Regardless, Elkins gets the nod for two kills and a break – [17 points].

Matt Anderson (beast) – $17 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown), Mario Gaor (purple). Manderson getting some serious respect shown by the big jump in price this week, putting him in premium category.  However, he’s only got two matches and at best is likely to tie with Elkins.  I’m saying Manderson crushes Gaor with his size and strength. [7 points].

Moises Carrasco – $17 – Roger Coelho (black), Ridge Blackburn (black), Noah Randolph (blue). I don’t feel I have an adequate sample size for Moises. He’s looked good. Best shot is to say ties Roger, gets the two points for Ridge no-show, and lands a darce on Noah (cheering for Noah, but Moises looked good with his headlock darce setup). [4 POINTS FOR TWO NO SHOWS]

AVERAGE

Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – $16 – Michael Libby (blue), Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown),  same price. Elkins is a bigger, more experienced wrestler and jiu jitsu player. I’ll give Randall a sub on Libby.  [7 points]

Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Keahi Makekau (white), Seth Tatum (blue).  Elbow Bae takes out the Knee Barrista. Geiger takes out the loss on Keahi…with a kill (he knows he needs the chokes when he can get them and his size and wrestling win out). Geiger v Tatum is at best a tie, unless he finds a sneaky knee bar, but Tatum should be guarding against that outcome.  [7 points].

Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown) – $16 – Casey Willbanks (blue), Josh Diaddario (blue), Stephen Mitchell (purple).  Kai’s coming off a few weeks of rest.  He’s well acquainted with his opponents this week.  Kai is fast, creative, and should know how to take out his 10th Planet Decatur teammates. [21 points] – PICK OF THE WEEK!!!

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Robert Autrey (white). Malone has two kills and two breaks. Autrey is winless. Malone for the kill. [7 points]

Eric Longar (brown) – $15 – Keahi Makekau (white), Seth Tatum (blue), Robert Gladden (white). Longar gets two kills, but can’t take Tatums. [9 points.]

Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) – $15 – BYE WEEK, but keep an eye out for him next week as he’ll likely be a bargain (like Joe Kai above). Also, check out his interview on Matt Skaff’s Grappling Discourse podcast.

Mario Gaor (purple) – $15 – Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown), Matt Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue) – I don’t feel good about calling any matches for Gaor. He might take Collins as Gaor has more points, but Collins has more wins. [0 points].

Ridge Blackburn (black) – $15 – Caleb McAllister (black), Moises Carrasco,  Elijah Carlton (black)      I think he’s injured and out for foreseeable future, if there was a week to skip, it would be this one and that murderer’s row of competitors. [0 points]

BELOW AVERAGE

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $14 – BYE WEEK

Louis Collins (blue) – $14 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown),  Mario Gaor (purple). He’s coming off a 10 point week but is facing an uphill battle against Elkins.  His match with Gaor is a tossup so I’ll hedge my bets saying [0 points].

Stephen Mitchell (purple) – $14 – Elijah Carlton (black), Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown). A week to learn, [0 points].

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – Robert Autrey (white), Michael Libby (blue). If he shows, this week could be his best week.  The question is does his cardio work.  He likes the leg game, so let’s bet [6 points].

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $13 – Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown), Casey Willbanks (blue).  His match against Kai will be no laughing matter…hahahaha, I had to, but I’ll give him the leg lock against Willbanks. [3 points].

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – BYE WEEK

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 – Dennis Smith (white), Caleb McAllister (black), Moises Carrasco. Noah has a great future. I think he’ll get Smith and he gets 2 for Caleb not showing up, but Moises too much experience on him. [9 points]

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Dennis Smith (white) – $12 – Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (purple), Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown). Smith gets his second kill of the season against Johnson – edit Johnson is out so no points. [0 points].

Keahi Makekau (white) – $12 – Eric Longar (brown), Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue). [0 points]

Michael Libby (blue) – $12 – Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue). [0 points].

Robert Autrey (white) – $12 – Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue). [0 points].

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Mike Johnson (purple) – $11 – Dennis Smith (white), Caleb McAllister (black) [0 points].

UPDATE – HE’S OUT!!! Robert Gladden (white) – $11 – Eric Longar (brown) [0 points].

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $10 – Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown), Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Josh Diaddario (blue) [0 points].

Professional Grappling Federation (PGF) Week 5 Most Anticipated Fights

Matt Skaff, Lindsey McCaghren (the First Lady of the PGF), and the competitors of the PGF are getting a well-deserved rest this week.  Brandon McCaghren and Conscious Keelan have put together a great product for all of us grappling fans.  After a very successful first third of the season, they’re due some R&R. As a fan who has made the PGF part of my schedule for my Friday nights, I hardly know what to do with myself.  So…..I took a break from building my fantasy analysis (forthcoming) and decided to review some match-ups we should all really look forward to watching next week.  Without further ado, here’s my top 7 highly anticipated fights for week #5:

#7 – Seth Tatum (blue) v Eric Longar (brown) – Seth Tatum has been a standout as a blue belt consistently in the top 10 of the PGF from week to week.  Eric Longar has underperformed on paper as a brown belt, but he’s giving up a lot of weight in almost every match. Seth is 6’3” and 180lb so Longar will be giving up length and weight.  But can the cagey brown belt take down the blue belt upstart?  Or will this match just be another notch on Tatum’s belt in his quest to get what seems to be an overdue purple belt from BMAC? Seriously, if Tatum finishes in the top 10, he’s got to have a good argument for a purple belt.  If I have to write down Skaff’s prerequisites for a purple belt from his podcast and go through PGF footage to give matches and time hacks to give proof, I might just do it.

#6 – Elijah Carlton (black) v Roger Coehlo (black) – A black belt battle could be fun.  The one spoiler is Roger (a fourth degree black belt) was choked/killed by Nilo Burgener in Week 2.  In week 1, Elijah took out Nilo with a break off a traditional triangle position (should’ve been a kill if patient).  Per the transitive property (google that stuff), Elijah should take out Roger.  Still, I have to believe Roger’s fourth degree pride and time off should make it a match to watch.

#5 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) v Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue) – I’ll admit, I think the Elbow Genie/Elbow Bae gets the win via break fairly easily.  I couldn’t help but include this match due to the two nicknames of different hemispheres of the body.  Geiger has the collegiate wrestling and a love of knee bars, but the Elbow Genie has shown the ability to break almost any joint on the body.  Moreover, when the Manderson is impressed with your grips (like he was of Roberts), the Elbow Genie is likely to grab a hold of Geiger and break something.  Still, I think the athleticism of Geiger should make it a fun fight.

#4 – Roger Coelho (black) v  Moises Carrasco – I still don’t know what belt Moises holds, but he’s good. He’s a Cobra BJJ product out of Tuscaloosa and has an amateur MMA record of 3-2, with a #7 ranking amongst AL heavyweights according to tapology.com.  He’s shown patience and a love of the front headlock/darce/etc. setup.  Roger is a 4th degree black belt that’s run into some problems against Nilo and couldn’t finish off Tatum (blue belt) or Elkins (brown belt). Roger still has the sickest foot sweep of the PGF, but this match could be a real fight.

#3 – Seth Tatum (blue) v Jeremy “Kneebar Barrista” Geiger (blue) – two 10th Planet Decatur guys here.  You have to think they have faced off dozens if not hundreds of times on the mats there.  This match is where the Securities and Exchange Commission should cite BMAC and the First Lady of the PGF for insider trading considering their fantasy teams.  They’ve likely seen many of these rolls and have an unfair advantage in anticipating a victor.  Regardless, you have a top 10, triangle or back-take master in Tatum vs a collegiate wrestler who hates on people’s knees. It’s #3 v #6 in the Eastern Conference. Tatum has a 16 point advantage. If Geiger could pull the upset (by knee bar perhaps?), it would really boost him in the rankings. I’m picking Tatum, but look forward to a good match.

#2 – Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) v Mario Gaor (purple) – Mario Gaor could put Matt Elkins (see below) a run for the money for the worst schedule so far.  He’s faced three black belts and one brown belt (and would’ve face another black belt if Ridge Blackburn hadn’t been hurt). Mario is a technical competitor with some slick moves.  But talking about slick moves, he’ll have to face the Scarecrow of Doom. The SOD is a triangle master. Everyone thought his play was just to pull guard and hit that lanky triangle, but he’s lately shown some good top game as well, leading to some mounted triangles.  I have to give the odds to the Chewjitsu product – the SOD. In this battle of tacticians, the lankiness factor will win out (plus he’s a brown belt v a purple belt).

#1 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) v Matt “Manderson” Anderson (beast white belt) – it’s the Thing vs the Hulk. Elkins has probably had the highest strength of schedule in the PGF. Anderson has been subbed by two brown belts and the Kneebar Knight.  Both are at the top of the weight limit with lots of strength. I believe Manderson is touted as the strongest PGF member, but Elkins has to be in the top 4. Elkins has the wrestling advantage, but Manderson is a judo brown belt.  That stylistic matchup could be fun. I would have to pick Elkins.  His wrestling skills plus his extensive training (brown belt) should be the mix of skill and strength needed to take out Manderson.  But, even though we all think the Thing should beat the Hulk…many times the strength of the Hulk gets him out of trouble.  As Manderson has world class powerlifting strength, he rates Hulk-like respect. This match should be FUN!

Okay, now back to re-watching PGF matches so I can find the keys to getting back to first place in the fantasy league…

PGF Week 4 Fantasy Analysis – updated with results

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $26 – likely 2 kills (14 points) [only 2 fights] – HE GOT 10 POINTS, KILLING DIADDARIO AND BREAKING MANSCAPE

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $23 – faces Matt SOD Harrison (brown); Louis Collins (blue belt); Matt Anderson (monster) – he could get three kills. Worried about Matt Anderson getting him while he’s tired. If Nilo doesn’t footlock/heelhook him early, it could be a rough match. Anderson has 40 lbs on him.  SOD could pull an upset. It would be interesting as both like to sit guard. – 3 kills (high risk/high reward)  [21 points] –  HE GOT 10 POINTS, COULDN’T SUBMIT THE SOD AND HAD TO SETTLE FOR A BREAK AGAINST COLLINS. HIS CARDIO WAS IMPRESSIVE AS HE STILL HAD PLENTY OF ENERGY FACING ANDERSON

Roger Coelho (black) – $22 – Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple); Caleb McAllister (black); Dennis Smith (white) – one sure kill; the other two are tough; guessing 1 kill; 1 break. Loss to Caleb [10 points]  – DID NOT SHOW

PREMIUMS

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $19 – Clay Malone (blue); Dallas Sharp (blue); Eric Longar (brown) – Downside estimate – three breaks (c’mon he’s the Elbow Genie) for 9 points. Upside, you throw in at least one kill and you have [13 points]. Some might think he’ll bow to the point system, but I’m guessing he might just joint lock his way easily to the tournament. At the tournament, all submissions are equal and the Elbow Genie could reign supreme. – HE GOT THREE BREAKS FOR 9 POINTS, SEEMS LIKE A TREND HERE. WILL HE BREAK DOWN (PUN INTENDED) AND CHOKE SOMEONE IN THE REGULAR SEASON?

Caleb McAllister (black) – $19 – Josh Diaddario (blue); Stephen Mitchell (purple); Roger Coehlo (black) – I’m calling it now, 3 kills. 21 points. Best play of the “premium” players. – CHOKED MITCHELL, BROKE DIADDARIO, AND GOT 2 POINTS FOR ROGER’S NO SHOW – FOR 12 POINTS

Seth Tatum (blue) – $18 – Blake Randall (blue belt, but deadly); Canaan Brooks (blue belt); Clay Malone (blue) – Blue belt battles this week for Seth Tatum. I’ll give him two kills [14 points], but I’m guessing the Randall matchup goes to a tie. I could be wrong; he could get 3 kills. His size and length could be too much for Randall, but he’s taken down bigger guys. – GOT THE KILL AGAINST RANDALL, GOT 2 FOR CANAAN’S NO SHOW, STALEMATED MALONE FOR 9 POINTS.

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – Nilo the Mop Bergener (brown); Michael Libby (blue); Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – The SOD could pull the upset against the Mop, but I don’t see it happening.  The best outcome likely is gutting out a tie. Michael Libby is a kill. But, the SOD vs the Mane is tough. Elkins has serious wrestling, size, and scrambling (did you see his match against Roger Coehlo?). I think one kill is a safe bet here, but he could catch Elkins. 7 points. – FOUGHT NILO TO A TIE, CHOKED LIBBY, BUT WAS CHOKED BY ELKINS – 7 POINTS.

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $18 – Mike Johnson(purple); Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown). Elkins gets the choke/kill on Johnson for seven points. The Mane vs the SOD is a tough call.  The SOD is crafty and loves to pull guard, mitigating Elkins’ wrestling. I think the Mane vs the SOD is a toss-up. 7 points. – ELKINS CHOKED BOTH OPPONENTS FOR 14 POINTS. HE’S GOING TO BE A POPULAR PICK GOING FORWARD AS LONG AS HIS PRICE DOESN’T SKYROCKET.

Ridge Blackburn (black) – $17 – Mario Gaor(purple); Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple); Dennis Smith (white). Ridge had high expectations coming into the league, but has run into some rough competition, losing to The Mane via guillotine; The Mop via armbar and the Elbow Genie via heel hook.  Given his predilection to lose to competitors with legit nicknames, I’m expecting Ridge to earn two kills [14 points] but have problems with the Liquid Terminator. INJURED AND OUT FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE

Moises Carrasco – $17 – Josh Diaddario (blue); Stephen Mitchell (purple). Working with only a four match sample size, there could be some error in this analysis. Moises has MMA experience. In his one televised match, he showed patience and a nice transition back and forth from Darce to guillotine chokes. He likely gets two kills [14 points] versus two sub .500 opponents. – LAST SECOND PICK WHEN I LEARNED RIDGE WAS OUT. HE GOT THE CHOKE AGAINST DIADDARIO BUT HAD TO SETTLE FOR A BREAK AGAINST MITCHELL FOR 10 POINTS.

AVERAGE

Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) – $16 – Roger Coehlo (black); Ridge Blackburn (black). Someone doesn’t like the Liquid Terminator this week.  Pulling only two matches and both against black belts. The Liquid Terminator is fierce but not a sure thing to get any points this week. He could go T2000 and knock off two black belts, but it’s more likely he shows grit and ties them both. [0 points] – BOTH HIS OPPONENTS DID NOT SHOW SO HE RECEIVED 4 POINTS.

Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown) – $16 – no matches until August 14th.

Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Dallas Sharp (blue); Eric Longar (brown); Casey Willbanks (blue) – The Kneebar Knight with his collegiate wrestling and size is intriguing here. Casey Willbanks is likely a kill (but he’s getting amazing experience even competing, I’d kill to live in the area). I’m going to give the Kneebar Knight either a break on Sharp or Longar, for a total of [10 points]. Longar, though a brown belt, has had problems giving up this much weight difference previously.  Sharp is a very athletic gymnast and has likely rolled with Geiger many, many times, so they may know each other’s attacks enough to get a draw. – HE GOT THE KILL ON LONGAR AND 2 POINTS FOR WILLBANKS NO SHOW BUT STALEMATE AGAINST SHARP FOR 9 POINTS.

Eric Longar (brown) – $16 – Casey Willbanks (blue); Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (blue); Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown). Longar gets one kill (Willbanks), loses to Elbow Genie, and either ties or loses to Kneebar Knight. [7 points] – RECEIVED 2 POINTS FOR WILLBANKS NO SHOW, BUT WAS SUBMITTED BY OTHER OPPONENTS FOR 2 POINTS TOTAL

Blake Randall (blue) – $16 – Seth Tatum (blue); Robert Gladden (white); Robert Autrey (white). I’ll guarantee at least two breaks with an upside of two kills and a break.  Gladden has the size advantage, but Randall has great wrestling and cardio. Autrey should’ve been finished by Noah last week, but gutted out the tie. I think Randall takes out the two Roberts.  Seth Tatum is the real challenge.  Tatum’s length and skill could be a challenge – likely no points for Randall. Randall has seemed to be a break specialist, but I’ll go on a limb and say two kills [14 points].  – HE GOT ONE KILL FOR 7 POINTS

Matt Anderson (beast) – $15 – Robert Autrey (white); Michael Libby (blue); Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown). Anderson came back to earth last week with only one kill and two ties.  As mentioned above, he could give the Mop some problems as he’ll be Nilo’s third match and has conservatively a 20 lb weight advantage (and Anderson is very strong for his size if you listen to the Grappling Discourse podcast). Regardless, it’s not a good bet to say Anderson gets any points out of a match with Nilo.  But facing Autrey and Libbey (both winless), you have to think Anderson gets two kills [14 points]. – HE GOT THE TWO KILLS EXPECTED FOR 14 POINTS

Mario Gaor (purple) – $15 – Ridge Blackburn (black); Mike Johnson (purple). Mario has had a rough lineup, losing to three blackbelts and an MMA fighter. I don’t like his chances against another blackbelt.  On the upside, Mike Johnson is in the cellar of the division, so he could be a kill. [7 points] – HE GOT THE ONE KILL AND 2 POINTS FOR RIDGE NOT SHOWING SO 9 POINTS

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown); Seth Tatum (blue); Keahi Makekau (white). Malone has an uphill battle against the Elbow Genie and Seth Tatum – two top 10 players.  Keahi, who has lost to everyone except the winless Mike Johnson, is his win for the night, likely with a kill. [7 points] – HE GOT THE EXPECTED KILL FOR 7 POINTS.

BELOW AVERAGE

Stephen Mitchell (purple) – $14 – Dennis Smith (white); Caleb McAllister (black); Moises Carrasco (mma, brown or black). Stephen has a tough night with Caleb and Moises, likely facing two losses. Dennis has the collegiate wrestling and size advantage, but Mitchell has the technique.  Mitchell and Smith faced the same opponent in Mario Gaor. Mario choked Dennis but tied Mitchell. I might give Mitchell the kill here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with a tie and no points on the night. [0 points]- NO SUBMISSIONS

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 – On bye week. Which is good because he’s a fierce competitor you want to champion, but he hasn’t put up the fantasy points.  He’s going to be a bad man the next time his weight class’s season rolls around. BYE WEEK

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – Elijah Carlton (black), Casey Willbanks (blue). Manscape loses to Elijah, but kills Willbanks. [7 points] MANSCAPE GOT 2 POINTS FOR WILLBANKS NOT SHOWING.

Louis Collins (blue) – $13 – Robert Gladden (white); Robert Autrey (white); Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown). Collins has three victories, against two blue belts and a white belt. He’s got wrestling and leg locks. I could see two leg locks out of this lineup. [6 points] – HE EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS, GETTING A KILL AND A BREAK FOR 10 POINTS.

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $13 – Caleb McAllister (black); Moises Carrasco; Elijah Carlton (black). This week is an awesome opportunity for Diaddario to roll against some serious talent. [0 points] – NO SUBMISSIONS FOR 0 POINTS.

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $13 – Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue); Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown); Keahi Makekau (white). Sharp’s a superior athlete, but giving up size to the Kneebar Knight (loss). If the Elbow Genie doesn’t take Sharp’s arm home with him, Sharp could get a kill against Keahi. [7 points] – HE GOT THE EXPECTED KILL FOR 7 POINTS.

Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – Keahi Makekau (white); Seth Tatum (blue); Robert Gladden (white). Canaan only has one win.  He’s been trying to play the leg game, but with only one success.  I’m thinking this week may be his time to shine – two breaks [6 points]. – DID NOT SHOW

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Robert Gladden (white) – $12 – Louis Collins (blue); Blake Randall (blue); Canaan Brooks (blue). Gladden looks really strong, but susceptible to small, wily guys (see Diaddario match). Collins, Brooks, and Randall I believe all have leg attack submissions in the PGF.  Gladden may have issues fending these off. He may outperform this eval, but I’m judging [0 points]. – HE RECEIVED 2 POINTS FOR CANAAN’S NO SHOW

Keahi Makekau (white) – $12 – Canaan Brooks (blue); Dallas Sharp (blue); Clay Malone (blue). This may be Keahi’s most fair week – no black belts, etc. I know Keahi has a huge following, but I can’t bet on him this week. [0 points] – HE RECEIVED 2 POINTS FOR CANAAN’S NO SHOW.

Dennis Smith (white) – $12 – Stephen Mitchell (purple); Ridge Blackburn (black); Roger Coelho (black). Dennis might have a chance to bully Stephen with his size and collegiate wrestling, but I don’t see him getting any points this week. [0 points] – NO SUBMISSIONS FOR 0 POINTS

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $12 – Eric Longar (brown); Mike “Manscape” Richey (white); Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue). It’s going to be a long night for Casey Willbanks, but it’ll make him better. [0 points] – DID NOT SHOW FOR 0 POINTS.

Robert Autrey (white) – $11 – Matt Anderson (beast); Louis Collins (blue); Blake Randall (blue). Autrey is winless. Collins would be his best shot, but Collins has three victories. [0 points] – NO SUBS FOR 0 POINTS.

Mike Johnson (purple) – $11 – Michael Libby (blue); Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown); Mario Gaor (purple).  Mike Johnson could get his first win against Michael Libby, but they’re both winless. [3 points] – NO SUBS FOR  0 POINTS.

Michael Libby (blue) – $10 – Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown); Matt Anderson (beast); Mike Johnson. Libby has been submitted by all his opponents. While Mike Johnson is also winless, he’s a purple belt, so Libby is likely to remain winless. [0 points] – HE GOT A BREAK AGAINST JOHNSON FOR 3 POINTS.

UPDATE: Ridge Blackburn is out. Switch to Moises.