PGF Season 2, Week 6 Fantasy Analysis

Kemoy Anderson suggested many members of the BrandonMC.ninja Facebook group were “really riding nuts in [the group]. ” As a quick refutation, I’ll remind everyone I made my prediction for the winner of PGF Season 2 well before the season. Here’s your eventual winner of PGF Season 2 (regular season):

Hunter Colvin as The Professional. Awesome Photoshop by one Walo Jay of McDojo Show fame.

So my nickname for Hunter Colvin – “The Professional” is both a nod to his competition pedigree (and EXPERIENCE as mig-E likes to point out), but he’s also a dang hitman. I keep going back to Hunter Colvin taking out Kyle Boehm via triangle arm bar (Kyle Boehm vs Hunter Colvin) – remember Kyle Boehm face Gordon Ryan at Who’s Number One. That’s top competition folks! So, I’m on the record saying Colvin is going to take it. I’m a fan of The Bad Guy, but I think The Professional has too much EXPERIENCE and skill.

Turning to some thoughts about this week overall, it’s not block 12 but it’s an Elkins world and we’re just living in it. I asked for some outside commentary regarding the Elkins chances in their matches this week and I received a response:

Doug Marcaida from Forged in Fire

I believe we’ll easily see both Elkins brothers in the finale May 21-22. I’m very excited to see how far Matt goes with some time to heal his bum knee (I hear a grade 2 LCL tear can take 2-4 weeks to heal). Regardless, it’ll be great to see both in action. I’ve said it before, but I think at least one Elkins needs to be a part of every PGF, with Matt on commentator or coach duties (as long as he gets interviewed) being good enough. Still, I hear the youngest brother might be there for Season 3, which would be pretty cool.

Okay, now transitioning to more serious points:

TIMING NOTE: Block 10 starts day five (I believe they had the fourth day off, except for the Elkins brothers and their matches from day three who had makeups on the day off). Still, most of these guys should be fresh starting off on block 10.

Now on to the analysis for this week:

For your consideration, each fantasy team has 7 possible spots with a total salary cap of $120 for the week.  Any left-over funds do not carry over to the next week. While one could hypothetically maximize their chances at success at playing all 7 roster spots, we often found during season 1 that sacrificing a roster spot to secure more “sure things” was the way to go.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $31; faces Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) [BREAK] and Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [KILL] – 9 points.  As Tony Ferguson says, “CHAMP SH!T ONLY!” Here we have the PGF Season 1 champ, currently 33-0 in the PGF, facing the inaugural 225 lb champ who won his title at the PGF Season 1 finale, four-man tournament. Okay, so here’s what the odds say – Carlton with his ridiculous legs, sits and gets Barbosa in a leg lock…OR, Barbosa finds a way to pass, perhaps rolling kimura (didn’t work for McCalester in PGF Finale, see below) to back take to RNC. The Blue team leaders are too keyed into Elijah’s triangle attack for them to fall prey to it. Sam’s coaching on the sidelines and analysis has been on point (ok, from a blue belt’s perspective). I think Elijah’s surprising leg lock game gets the break.  That said, Skaff said only four, world-class black belts have gotten Sam to submit. I’d put Colvin in that category, regardless of the COLLUSION. Still, the point of bringing up the collusion is Barbosa could have lasted. For Elijah to get the submission he has to get the leg lock or his triangle. Both those submissions seem hard to survive. I still have to give it to Elijah. For Roden, I think Elijah goes back to the well and gets that triangle. Even if Roden has been alerted to the triangle and seen Elijah’s video, I don’t know if he can get out of it. There’s an off-chance Elijah has to settle for two breaks if Roden’s defense is too strong. Given Elijah’s fantasy points recently and his expected points against this tough competition, I can only think:

But I understand, even if he’s getting breaks, he’s normally a guaranteed submission. Plus, the Commish has to find a way to break out the fantasy competitors – making them have to make hard calls for their rosters based on rising prices will make it more competitive.

Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) – $31; faces Joshua Gibbs (purple) [KILL] and “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) [KILL] – 13 points. Colvin gets the lead over Carlton by securing two kills over purple belts. As I’m trying to show through the pic, Colvin’s nickname isn’t just because of his competition, pedigree or “EXPERIENCE” as mig-E from the McDojo Show would like to point out. No, Colvin is a straight up ASSASSIN! Colvin gets both to the ground, passes their guard and secures the kill.

Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) – $28; faces Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS] and Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) [KILL] – 6 points. See above for analysis of Champ showdown. Barbosa has the strength and cardio advantage over the RONA-diminished Primeau; Barbosa gets the kill.

Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) – $24; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [KILL] and Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) [KILL] – 12 points. Even though Eakin didn’t have the fourth day off (had to face Jake Elkins), he still has had some rest since day three. I figure at this point, Eakin is still in shock/steaming from the Carlton match, but raring to go. Eakin’s day five may be the worst in the competition, featuring Roden, Kemoy, then Colvin (next episode). But, I think Eakin has learned he needs to give every match his all instead of leaving gas in the tank for later matches (e.g. should’ve gone after MEGA more despite having Carlton afterwards). Calling Eakin for two kills may be influenced by my enjoyment of his YouTube shows as well as my affinity for his original base camp, the 10P Freaks who still train some of my old training partners. Still, if I have to make a call, I’m going TEAM EAKIN (at least in the analysis, I still have to run numbers for the roster). After all, Eakin is still one of two black belts in this competition and runs his own school and tournaments. The wealth of knowledge and experience owned by Eakin should give him a nice edge, even over the younger, more athletic competition he faces tonight.

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) – $24; faces Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) [KILL] and James Regina (purple) [KILL] – 12 points. Papa Bear Elkins avenges the clan against Stapler, then smashes Regina after he sits. Elkins is putting on a grappling showcase.

Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) – $21; faces “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) [KILL] and Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) [LOSS] – 6 points. My confidence rating in this evaluation is not the highest. Kemoy could get a kill or a draw/loss against MEGA – I doubt he can kimura those arms. Kemoy may find a sneaky sub against Eakin or lose. I know Kemoy will acquit himself well, but one kill is still an optimistic call.

PREMIUMS

Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) – $17; faces Justin “Judo” Williams (white) [KILL] and Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) [KILL] – 12 points. Here’s where Elkins shines. He’s got two lower belts who have one submission between the two of them. We all know he wants to save energy for BLOCK 12 (GET HERE ALREADY!), but he needs these kills. Maneless will get these kills.

Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) – $16; faces Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) [LOSS] and Joshua Gibbs (purple) [KILL] – 6 points. Papa Bear Elkins gets some revenge for messing with his little brother…only he whups up on his little brother (IS BLOCK 12 HERE YET ALREADY? C’MON!). 8-Mile continues his Vagnar Rocha style attack and forces Gibbs to succumb to a kill.

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) – $16; faces Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) [KILL] and Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) [LOSS] – 6 points. This estimation is admittedly the best possible outcome. We need to see Primeau’s price to see if it’s a value pick to put him on your roster.

AVERAGE

Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) – $15; faces Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) [LOSS] and Justin “Judo” Williams (white) [BREAK] – 3 points. Before I get called out by Walo Jay again on the McDojo show, I’ll say there could be some inconsistency here. Edwards could pick up a break against Primeau. Edwards would have to wear Primeau down past the four minute mark and then secure a break…or if Primeau tried for another straight ankle lock v heel hook shootout which he would lose this time. Still, with Edwards injury, you can’t bet on him for fantasy…only to be a warrior and power through.

“MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – $14 – aka the world’s most mysterious man; faces Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) [LOSS] and Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) [LOSS]. MEGA has definitely made a MEGA impression on the competitors and the fans. He’s a beast and not to be taken lightly. Still, he’s facing two pedigreed competitors in these blocks. Kemoy is LEGIT A.F. but has yet to show us his best stuff. I think that match could be his coming out party. If MEGA can force Kemoy to his back, MEGA still has to look out for those triangles Kemoy loves to use. I think the best MEGA gets in that match is a draw. As for facing, the Professional, MEGA doesn’t have a chance. He’s the Professional.

BELOW AVERAGE

Joshua Gibbs (purple) – $12; faces Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) [LOSS] and Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) [LOSS] – 0 points. Gibbs seems like a genuine, great guy. He has some solid jiu jitsu but I’m not sure if he doesn’t have the mentality for the competition or is just a new purple belt in a tank with some killer upper belts. Regardless, my hat’s off to him for mixing it up with this group. But, I am not sure there’s another week left where he’s worth a start.

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $12; faces Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) [LOSS] and Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS] – 0 points. Honestly, taking either of these matches to a draw would be a big win for Roden. Roden’s wrestling and top pressure should give Eakin a chance to show what the lockdown game is all about. I’m guessing the Bad Guy goes for the leg lock against Roden – he’ll decide discretion is the better part of valor in that match.

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) – $11; faces James Regina (purple) [LOSS] and Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) [LOSS] – 0 points. Grayson has shown nothing but class in this tournament and his reaction to the matches becoming public on social media. He’s congratulatory and looking to learn from each loss. His humble outlook on the tournament (I’m going to try to at least force the stall/draw) has not made him a fan favorite, but I can understand his natural, no b.s. take on a new blue belt taking on a bunch of seasoned competitors. I hope he continues his journey, which I’m sure he will, then meets 8-Mile in the finals of PGF Season 10.

James Regina (purple) – $11; faces Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) [BREAK] and Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) [LOSS] – 3 points. Regina may be an option at the right price. His leg lock game could get the Southern Samurai, but there’s very little chance he takes down The Head Elkins.

Justin “Judo” Williams (white) – $9; faces Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown){LOSS] and Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown)[LOSS] – 0 points. JUDO seems to be on another wavelength. He seems like a cool cat, but seems definitely out there in the interviews. Nevertheless, JUDO has never thrown in the towel, forcing his competitors to bring their best. I’d really like to see a solid JUDO throw before this season is done.

PGF Week 4 Matchups

BLOCK 10:

Joshua Gibbs (purple) v faces Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) – KILL, Blue 7. DUNK. I think the professional gets it done in less than one minute. Gibbs is one of those competitors who keeps a good spirit regardless of the situation. He knows what/who he’s up against and will give it his all.

Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) v Justin “Judo” Williams (white) – KILL, Red 6. Judo has really stalled out some competitors. But Elkins knows he needs the kill. He’s on the outside of the money and in the last tournament spot. He needs this kill to help secure his spot in the finale tournament. Elkins uses his “profesh” front headlock game to get the kill.

Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) v faces Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) – KILL, Blue 6. I feel kinda bad picking this match. Edwards is powering through an obviously agonizing lower back injury and Primeau is still trying to find his cardio/power after the Rona. I’m going to pull a McDojo Show and go with my heart. Primeau gets his Sao Paolo pass early when he still has his cardio (remember first match of the night) and gets a head and arm triangle.  

James Regina (purple) v Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) – BREAK RED 3. Regina is a leg locker. Grayson fell to Elijah in a handful of seconds to a leglock, but that’s Elijah. Still, other than schools who just love to leg lock (looking at you 10P Freaks), most schools/students are hesitant to work leg locks for a while. While I say that, JUDO had some good leg lock defense against Regina, forcing Regina to get that sweet wristlock/straight arm bar. I have to think Regina collects himself on the day off and doesn’t get too excited on his leg entanglement entries, securing the break.

Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) v Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – BREAK RED 3. The match of the night. I don’t want to put the results on it, but this match is Barbosa’s first one after suffering that “I can see my bone” injury during the paintball match. As I’ve pointed out before, Barbosa was scheming with Colvin and Eakin on how to take out Carlton. Elijah sits immediately – he knows Sam is too good to try to wrestle. Sam may try the rolling kimura but it didn’t work out for Caleb McCallister in the PGF Season 1 Finale Tournament (3:31:25 start). Honestly, I went back and watched that match because I was trying to think of who may have had Elijah in a bad spot. Elijah was in the superior position or neutral position the entire match. We have two competing PGF Fantasy Rules (publication forthcoming) – (1) You don’t bet against Elijah until someone beats him, and (2) If you don’t cheer for Barbosa, you don’t have a soul [his main goal is to open an orphanage]. So, I guess we put our fantasy dollars on Elijah, but cheer for Barbosa.

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) v faces Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) – KILL RED 6.  Papa Bear Elkins avenges his younger brother. Evan tried some of his uchi mata takedowns against Sam Barbosa and ended up on the bottom for his trouble…and that’s with Sam’s casual demeanor wrestling. I think Jake takes down Evan and puts the pressure on him. Again, I think there could be some of that 52 weeks of payback Matt Elkins promised given a little early here. Elkins got the 7 against Grayson and Gibbs, but I think 8-Mile has too much heart. Stapler lasts past the minute mark, getting a moral victory.

“MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) v Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) – KILL, BLUE 6. I think a lot has to do with who ends up on top. I like Kemoy’s ankle pick takedowns. Kemoy is coming off a nice win against Joshua Gibbs via triangle. MEGA is coming off that frustrating draw with Randy Roden. Yeah, I think Kemoy has the wrestling advantage and gets on top. He bullies MEGA a bit and gets the mounted triangle…which is a way of me hedging because I think there’s a chance MEGA could sweep, but still end up in a triangle. Kemoy loves the kimura, but I don’t think going for the kimura on MEGA is a great idea. I’ll stick by my gut and say KILL, KEMOY.

Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) v Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – KILL, BLUE 6. Eakin knows Roden’s game by now. I think Eakin guaranteed the fastest sit to guard in the PGF during this match. Eakin sits guard and starts working his lockdown game. I’m excited to see the black belt’s lock down game – where folks can see it’s an attacking/at least sweeping position. Once Eakin gets that sweep and gets on top of Roden, he’ll keep that pressure on and secure the win. Eakin has to push hard for this kill. He’s only six points above Kemoy and 14 above Primeau. 14 points might seem like a lot, but that’s two quick kills. There’s a chance Roden uses his athleticism to avoid Eakin’s submissions, but I have to give it to the black belt in this one.

Team Winner: I have Blue by 6, but I also gave Primeau the kill when Edwards could catch Primeau in a leg lock. So, I’m really calling it a toss-up/within the margin of error (i.e. don’t pick players for the team points this week based on this block).

Block 11:

Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) v Joshua Gibbs (purple) – KILL, RED  6. I think 8-Mile’s aggression and pressure secures him the win via head and arm triangle. Gibbs might use his extra experience to trick Stapler, but I just think Stapler’s going to continue his march to BLUE BELT GLORY! (gotta give a fellow blue belt some love). I’m actually almost more interested in seeing if he can get that uchi mata takedown to work on Gibbs.

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) v Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) – KILL, BLUE 6.  Primeau could have made this match hard for Barbosa if he wasn’t recovering. As it stands, Barbosa will wear down Primeau and get the RNC.

Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) v Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) – KILL, BLUE 6. This night may be harder than night one for Stephen Eakin. Eakin has Roden, Kemoy, then Colvin – GOOD GRIEF CHARLIE BROWN! Luckily for Eakin, Kemoy has MEGA Mike in his first match of the night and he should be tired from dealing with that side of beef. Eakin knows if he wants a shot at any money, he needs to win out the season. Kemoy wants to show everyone the hype he had coming into the PGF was warranted. I can’t say how this match is going to play out, so I’ll again take a page from my McDojo Show buddies and pick with my heat. Eakin gets the kill. Either Eakin gets on top and does the head and arm or he has to work his lockdown game to sweep, then get a choke.

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) v Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) – KILL, RED 6. The difference in BJJ time is key. Elkins sits to protect his knee and save himself for BLOCK 12!!! (If you know, you know). Elkins finds a way to sweep and gets a choke off his front headlock game. I don’t think he goes for the leg lock again. Elkins has been battling through his leg injury all season. He should know if he can secure that fourth spot on the red team, he’ll have time to heal up and show what he’s about in the PGF Season 2 finale tournament. I think Elkins knows he needs this kill to help cement his spot in the tournament.

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) v Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – KILL, RED 6. Elijah sits guard, nullifying Roden’s wrestling advantage. The Bad Guy finds a way to his patented triangle attack and executes beautifully. Roden might have seen the triangle attack before but still succumbs to it. Roden might be strong enough to push Elijah to force him to settle for a break (ala Mike “Manscape” Richey in season 1), but my money is on Elijah getting that triangle.

Justin “Judo” Williams v Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) – BREAK, RED 3. JUDO has shown some good leg defense against Regina, but Edwards is on the next level of the leg game. Edwards sits guard, nullifying any JUDO throws/trips. Edwards gets the leg entanglement and the leg lock.

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) v James Regina (purple) – KILL, RED 6. Elkins is going to overpower all but the top of the top in this league. Regina will probably sit guard but Elkins trains under 10P Decatur and their purple belts have plenty of leg lock defense. Allowing Jake Elkins top position (if you had a choice) is probably a poor decision. Elkins likely gets to full mount and gets the head and arm triangle.

Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) v “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – KILL, BLUE 6. The Professional knows it’s way better to be on top of MEGA than below him. They stand for a second but Colvin gets a double leg to put MEGA on his back (50 seconds in). MEGA probably tries for his half guard game after first being in butterfly, but Colvin passes and gets the RNC. 

Team Winner: Red team takes it by 9 points. Red is ahead enough to have a complete flip of a kill and still get the team points.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: