PGF Season 2, Week 5 Fantasy Analysis

As a reminder, blocks 8 and 9 are the second and third rounds of day 3 for the competitors. Whether you think they’ll be more “warmed up” or more depleted, it’s up to you.

Now on to the analysis for this week:

For your consideration, each fantasy team has 7 possible spots with a total salary cap of $120 for the week.  Any left-over funds do not carry over to the next week. While one could hypothetically maximize their chances at success at playing all 7 roster spots, we often found during season 1 that sacrificing a roster spot to secure more “sure things” was the way to go.

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Elijah “the Bad Guy” Carlton (brown) – $30; faces Zach “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) [KILL] and Stephen “the Dream” Eakin (black) [KILL] – 12 points. Edwards is hurt, so that call is easier than it should be. Eakin is a big question mark. As Eakin said, if MEGA makes him tired during this match it’ll be harder for him to beat Carlton. I think Eakin could really pull this match out, but one of the Rules of Fantasy PGF (publication forthcoming) is you don’t bet against Elijah until someone shows they can beat him.  This match is one of the matches where we could see Elijah lose. So, be careful about relying too heavily on these expected 12 points.

Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) – $30; faces Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) [KILL] and Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) [KILL] – 12 points. Last week we saw Colvin settle for a break pretty early in the match against Primeau when Primeau was defending hard. Should we worry “the Professional” settles for a break or two here? Or does Elijah overtaking him for the #1 spot make Colvin go harder for the kill?

Sam “the Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) – $26; faces Matt “Maneless” Elkins (brown) [KILL] and Zach “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) [KILL] –  12 points.  Sam faces a hurt Elkins and a hurt Edwards (who may get more hurt or injured in the match). Absent some lesser points for hurting Edwards, I think Sam is a solid 12 this week. A non-hurt/injured Edwards took Barbosa to EBI overtime at the Gulf South Classic last year.

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) – $23; faces – Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) [KILL] and Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) [LOSS] – 6 points. There’s a slight chance Kemoy sneaks in a triangle on Elkins, but I think it’s a solid kill. There’s a chance Elkins can force a draw or get some points against Colvin, but I have to go with the Professional in that match.

Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) – $23; faces “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) [KILL] and Elijah “the Bag Guy” Carlton (brown) [DRAW] – 6 points. Eakin needs the kill against MEGA if he wants to keep his hopes of winning the PGF alive. I think there’s a chance Eakin takes out Elijah – he’s a fan of the PGF from season 1 and a black belt. I have to think Eakin has a game plan for Elijah, but no one’s game plan for Elijah has worked to this point.

PREMIUMS

Kemoy “RatedR/the Bully” Anderson (brown) – $20; faces Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) [LOSS] and Joshua Gibbs (purple) [KILL] – 6 points. Kemoy does his best work from the top position (despite his triangle finishes). Elkins as the superior wrestler takes and maintains the top position. Kemoy bullies Gibbs for the kill.

Matt “Maneless/the Fade” Elkins (brown) – $18; faces Sam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) [LOSS] and Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) [DRAW] – 0 points. What could have been but for Elkins’ knee injury against Roden in week 1? As I’ll say for Primeau below, I hope he makes it to the tournament and has a chance to heal. If you’re new to the PGF, check out his matches in season one (look for “the Mane” as Samson had not cut his locks yet).

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) – $16; faces James Regina (purple) [BREAK] and Matt “Maneless” Elkins (brown) [DRAW] – 3 points. I hope Primeau finds some way to make the tournament again and recover from the Rona to show the new fans how bad a man he really is. For those of you who might have joined us for season 2, do yourself a favor and watch his matches from season 1.

Zack “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) – $16; faces Elijah “the Bag Guy” Carlton (brown) [LOSS] and Sam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) [LOSS] – 0 points. I think this week we see Edwards get hurt some more. He’s proving a real warrior for continuing the season.

AVERAGE

Evan “8 Mile” Stapler (blue) – $15; faces “Judo” Justin Williams (white) [KILL] and Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) [KILL] – 12 points. This week’s lineup is Stapler’s best of the season but we all need to be wary of one of the PGF Fantasy rules (publication forthcoming) – “Don’t trust a blue belt to get the submission.” (also see below). That said Stapler has shown he has the killer instinct and you should put him on your team unless you’re in the top 15 or so (gotta protect my lead).

“MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – $14 – aka the world’s most mysterious man; faces Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) [LOSS] and Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [DRAW] – 0 points. MEGA will give them good matches, but not get any points this week.

BELOW AVERAGE

Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) – $13; faces Joshua Gibbs (purple) [DRAW] and “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) [DRAW] – 0 points. Roden is a tough competitor and always the first person competitors mention as the most surprising and most improved from the season. Still, he’s a blue belt who hasn’t seemed to developed his killer instinct yet. He’ll likely get on top of both his opponents but hasn’t developed the “killing stroke” as Lindsey McCaghren has mentioned in her podcast with Brandon.

James Regina (purple) – $12; faces Kevin “Prison Rules” Primeau [LOSS] and “Judo” Justin Williams (white) [BREAK] – 3 points.  Regina was fairly unknown coming into the PGF.  He hasn’t made a big splash yet. I wonder if his focus on MMA has taken away some sharpness in his bjj game.

Joshua Gibbs (purple) – $12; faces Randy “Dumptruck” Roden (blue) [DRAW] and Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) [loss] – 0 points. Gibbs is a game competitor but faces a superior athlete and a more skilled competitor this week. Gibbs has shown great enthusiasm during this season and continues to give it his all.

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…) – a reminder to all competitors, don’t take my comments personally. If I was competing, I would be squarely at the bottom of this category.

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) – $11; faces Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) [LOSS] and Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) [LOSS]. I think Grayson has a shot for a draw or submission against Stapler, but 8-Mile has been the man showing up for us blue belts. Here, mentality might be the key. Grayson has gone into a lot of matches hoping to not lose while Stapler has been going into matches to win. Mentality is a habit and Stapler’s habit could give him the edge.

Justin “Judo” Williams (white) – $9; faces Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) [LOSS] and James Regina (purple) [LOSS]. Judo’s best shot for points this week is throwing up a Judo-style submission (e.g. an arm bar setup common to Judo but not bjj or maybe a Yoko Sangaku against Stapler’s turtle). But I don’t think he’s going to get any points this week.

PGF Week 4 Matchups

BLOCK 8:

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) v Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) – KILL, BLUE 6. Colvin is basically nearing Elijah Carlton level now.  Colvin gets the kill on most and only resorts to the break on those with a solid defense where Colvin wants to conserve energy.  Now with Elijah Carlton in lead, Colvin may be harder pressed for the kill (more pertinent in the second match). For this match, we have a pedigreed black belt competitor against a gritty blue belt. #bluebeltsarepeopletoo, but Grayson gets choked.

James Regina (purple) v Kevin “Prison Rules” Primeau – BREAK, BLUE 3. This match intrigues me. It doesn’t have big PGF implications, as both are not near the leader board, but it may say something about some regional levels of 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu. Regina is a purple belt and MMA fighter out of Kansas City.  Primeau is a former MMA fighter and purple belt out of Decatur, AL. Primeau hasn’t been in his “Liquid Terminator” form since having the Rona, but he’s been scrapping his way to some submissions and good showings against the top competitors. Regina has let to secure a submission, going for leg locks in most matches. I have to think Primeau finds a way to get another “prison rules” break. He has an upside of a kill. If Regina gets the win, it’ll likely be a leg lock break.

Joshua Gibbs (purple) v Randy “Dump Truck” Roden (blue) – DRAW. PGF FANTASY RULE #3 – DON’T TRUST BLUE BELTS TO GET THE SUBMISSION. There’s about no way Gibbs can handle Roden on the feet. Gibbs may try a sneaky guard pull or go for Roden’s legs (ala last time with Mega Mike Johnson), but I think Roden’s defense is too much to suffer the pseudo sneaky submissions of Gibbs (unlike the SUPER SNEAKY SUBMISSIONS OF PRIMEAU – very, very sneaky). Roden will likely dominate the match, but have no luck submitting Gibbs.

Matt “Maneless” Elkins (brown) v Sam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) – KILL, BLUE 6. This match would have been much more interesting before Elkins’ knee injury.  We won’t see the good wrestling exchange we might have seen. Barbosa has too good of a defense to be caught by Elkins.  Elkins sits with his left leg down to protect the leg.  This posture allows Barbosa to go for the rolling kimura on Elkins’ left arm, setting up the back take. Barbosa secures the RNC.  We should all be looking forward to Elkins in a future season…although, he’s still in fourth place on the Red team, meaning he would make the finale tournament. If you give Matt Elkins a little time to heal, it could be really exciting what he could bring to that finale tournament.

Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) v Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) – KILL, RED 6. Jake’s the best wrestler in the PGF. He proved that last week. Jake takes Kemoy down. Kemoy isn’t as good off his back as he is on top (probably from his MMA days). Kemoy may try a pop triangle, but Jake will defend. I’m guessing punch choke or head and arm triangle for Jake, showing his BMAC lineage.  Jake showed the mounted triangle once, but this match isn’t the time to go with anything but your best stuff.

Zach “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) v Elijah “the Bag Guy” Carlton (brown) – KILL, RED 6. Edwards is gutting out a lower back injury. He likely sustained it the first night either getting smashed by the D1 wrestler Roden or the black belt Eakin ensuring he didn’t get leg locked. Regardless, Edwards isn’t playing his “A” game. Edwards’ game is to sit guard. Elijah on top is a bad idea for everyone. Elijah gets the kill.

“MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) v Stephen “the Spoiler” Eakin (black) – KILL BLUE 6. Eakin is a solid, big black belt. MEGA’s a skilled purple belt who’s a large, strong guy. Mega learns Eakin is a bad man. BJJ math and the transitive property are not always right.  But if Jake Elkins > Mega Mike and Stephen Eakin = Jake Elkins (DRAW); then Stephen Eakin > Mega Mike.   It’s what some in my field would call a scientific wild ass guess (SWAG), but I have a hunch Eakin gets it done.          

Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) v “Judo” Justin Williams (white) – KILL, RED 6. I have to give it to my man 8-mile who is representing for all of us blue belts out there. Evan is the first competitor to get a “shoulder pressure” choke – I think they’re calling it a modified Von Flue/OSP choke. Regardless, Stapler’s savage (as my tweens would say). Judo really gives of a Stephen “Grey Goose” Mitchell vibe. I’m not sure if Judo is on the DMT like Mitchell and Joe Rogan, but he seems out there during his interviews. With his grey streaked beard and pseudo-philosophical remarks, I am mesmerized by Judo’s interviews. Judo could stall out this match as well, but Evan has shown a killer instinct.  Also, having called his move in the pre-match interview with Primeau, Evan has shown he has a good, strategic head on his shoulder.  By day 3, Evan has probably got an idea of Judo’s game or received some coaching from the Red team on how to take him down. I’ll take a flyer and say 8-mile gets it done.

Team Winner: BLUE by 3. It’s a very close one. So, I’d recommend not putting anyone on their rosters based on this team points situation.

Block 9:

Kemoy “RatedR” Anderson (brown) v Joshua Gibbs (purple) – KILL, BLUE 6. Kemoy bounces back from the loss to Elkins and gets a kill on Gibbs. Gibbs is still a relatively new purple belt and Kemoy is a seasoned brown belt competitor. I’m guessing Kemoy gets the takedown (heel pick?) and works that head and arm.

Grayson “Southern Samurai” Webster (blue) v Evan “8-mile” Stapler (blue) – KILL, RED 6.  Two of the bigger guys in the league collide in this Blue Belt matchup. 8-Mile has really stepped up to fill the Seth Tatum/Dallas Sharp/Noah Randolph role this season (i.e. 10P Decatur Blue Belts who are outperforming their belt ranks). We saw some mat smarts when Evan called his shot/strategy on Primeau. But, so far Evan’s subs have been via shoulder pressure and leg lock. The Southern Samurai isn’t tapping to shoulder pressure. Both these young men have lots of grit. I’m a fan of both, but I have a feeling Evan gets the pass and subs Grayson via head and arm triangle. I’m sure it won’t be as fast and strong as Jake Elkins finish of Grayson, but I have a hunch Evan will have taken notes and received some coaching from Papa Bear Elkins on ways to approach Grayson.

Elijah “the Bag Guy” Carlton (brown) v Stephen “the Dream” Eakin (black) – KILL, RED 6?   In his behind-the-scenes YouTube videos, Eakin discussed his analysis of this upcoming match (~13:20 mark). Eakin pointed out if MEGA MIKE wears him out in his earlier match, it could be hard for Eakin to take Elijah.  Eakin will have to treat Elijah like Zack Edwards (keeping pressure and center of gravity low to keep from being elevated for leg locks). Honestly, I think I’m going to have to publish this post without making my call. I might come back and update.

Randy “Dump Truck” Roden (blue) v “MEGA” Mike Johnson (purple) – DRAW. This night, MEGA has had Elijah Carlton on top of him and put him in a triangle; he’s faced Stephen Eakin (10P blackbelt and strong competitor) and now he faces Roden. MEGA has shown he’s much better on top than on bottom. Unfortunately for MEGA, Roden, as the top wrestler in this match, generally gets to choose who is on top. I initially thought MEGA would get the kill as the bigger competitor with the higher belt, but I think Roden’s wrestling and athleticism helps him defend enough to make it a draw.

Hunter “the Professional” Colvin (black) v Jake “Head” Elkins (purple) – KILL, BLUE 6. Colvin has guaranteed Jake won’t get any points on him (see 11:49). Jake has been a breakout star/fan favorite of the season, but he has losses to the other two of the big three (Elijah earlier this season and Sam Barbosa at the four-man initial 225 tournament in 2020). Elkins is a threat, but I have to go with Colvin until someone can beat him. Now, we saw last week where Colvin went for the break after hitting some resistance with Primeau…but that decision may have just been conserving energy for this match. So, there’s a risk Colvin gets the break.  But the odds are Colvin gets the sub.

Kevin “Prison Rules” Primeau v Matt “Maneless” Elkins (brown) – DRAW. Two interesting thoughts about these fan favorites from PGF Season 1: (1) both are not up to their PGF Season 1 form – Primeau is still recovering from the Rona and doesn’t have his endurance; Elkins has his left knee injury; and (2) they never faced one another in Season 1. Using bjj math (that transitive property seen above), we could look back and see Joe Kai who had a 1 hour, 12-minute match against Primeau in the Season 1 Finale tournament was able to get a draw against The Competitor Formerly Known As The Mane in Season 1, Week 2. So, they’re reasonable in the same range, skill-wise. These two are also really tough customers. Both would gut it out if they were put into a submission. I don’t think there’s a finish inside of six minutes.

“Judo” Justin Williams (white) v James Regina (purple) – BREAK, RED 3. Judo isn’t ignorant of the leg game; he tried to sit for Colvin’s leg in their match. But a white belt against a leg locker is a good way to get a break. Judo’s main defense has been when opponents are in the mount; he plays really tight and finds a way to survive. Against a leg locker like Regina, I don’t think Judo can defend for six minutes.

Sam “Kingpin” Barbosa (brown) v Zach “Squidbilly” Edwards (brown) – KILL BLUE 6. I’m a little worried for this match. We already know Edwards is injured (lower back). In the original PGF Season 2 promo (at 1:02) we see Edwards on the ground covering his eyes with his hands. In his McDojo Show interview, BMAC tried playing it off like Edwards might have been on the ground, in elation. But, I just looked at it again:

Elijah and Regina are clearly concerned and Jake Elkins is checking on Edwards. Barbosa is distraught – in a way a Nice Guy would be if he thought he just hurt someone. There’s been talk of folks would not have been upset if some competitors didn’t finish the season. Edwards in a post on the Brandonmc.ninja Facebook group said he wouldn’t have made it through the PGF without Lonnie Jones. I’m putting all these things together and I think Edwards really exacerbated his back injury or possibly something else in this match. It’s not a bright way to end the night, but it’s likely what happened. Now, it’s cold hearted, but for fantasy analysis, I’m thinking it may still be a kill with Sam taking Edwards’ back and cranking on his neck which in turn cranks on Edwards’ back. It’s likely still a kill, but could end up as a break.

Team Winner: Within the margin of error.

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