PGF WEEK 8 FANTASY ANALYSIS

Congrats to McWhorter, Bull City Jiu-Jitsu, and The Winners on joining me with the top team scores of the week.  We all decided Noah-t to overlook Noah (McDojo show inside joke there). Now the Pete Rose of the PGF, Kevin Primeau, has had to give up his #1 position, sinking down to #3.  Kevin, you have a blue belt beating you: neener-neener. That’s gotta hurt. But really it was great seeing Noah’s skills and talent come to fruition in the PGF competition.  I think we all saw his promise in week 1 of the PGF, but didn’t really see the payoff until last week. 

The big question mark for this week will be Moises Carrasco.  He missed the last week of competition in the PGF due to a MMA fight. I’ve tried and can’t find the fight on YouTube or other places online. I can’t find out any info on the results or his health following the fight.  He could come in banged up or he could come in with great conditioning, following a MMA camp – no idea which is right.  He has three matches on Thursday and three matches on Friday.  The numbers of matches alone could make him an intriguing pick until you start looking at his competition (more below). We don’t know if he’ll be locked for fantasy teams (as in not allowed to add) after Thursday or if all teams will have to be in on Thursday (I’d prefer the former as it does not upset casual fantasy players and fans). Regardless, after this week, we should know if Moises is a contender in the PGF or a mma fighter with some decent chokes.

I’m going to have to cut the exposition short. I got home at 0100 last night and have to prep for a fantasy football draft which I didn’t realize was today (been busy on PGF fantasy).  At this point, I’m going to have to video chat my son to help me pick my team.

Don’t worry McWhorter, I’m going to reanalyze all my intel, checking my excel spreadsheets twice so I can ensure I return to my rightful place as #1 in the PGF fantasy league.  It has a nice symmetry to it, doesn’t it? He was at the top in the beginning, got knocked down, then had to fight his way back to claim the spot again in the end.

As a quick reminder if you haven’t seen in on the Facebook group, Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison is out with an injury, but is expected to return next week. 

If you haven’t already, consider supporting Mat Viper, the folks that brought us the PGF rashguards. The official rashguards are available at https://matviper.com/collections/rash-guards/products/pgf-official-blue-rash-guard (you can follow the link to find the orange one).  Since I can’t train currently (stupid Rona), I finally snagged one of their sweet PGF t-shirts – the black one looks “dope” as my teenager would say (https://matviper.com/collections/tops/products/the-official-pgf-t-shirt). I got my shirt in the mail while I was gone.  IT IS DOPE as the man-child would say (he’s 6’1″ 225 and slated to be the starting varsity DE as a 16 year old).  I didn’t realize it was going to be in rashguard-like material, but I really like it.

Now on to the analysis:

UPDATED SCRATCHES:

1. Matt Harrison

2. Matt Elkins

3. Josh Diaddario

4. Robert Gladden

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense by dropping a roster spot)

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $25 – Keahi “Mr. Congeniality” Makekau (white), Seth Tatum (blue), Robert Gladden (white). The Mane has been on a tear lately, moving up to second place in the Eastern Conference.  The Commish has put some extra respect and cost on his name, moving the Mane to the most expensive fantasy competitor.  With this week’s matchups, he could give Elijah Carlton a run for his money and the league championship money if he can secure three kills.  Elijah has one more match remaining for the season, but that includes Jonathon “Elbow Genie” Roberts and Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger.  If either of those stalwart competitors can force a draw or just a break by Elijah, the Mane could sneak away with the championship.  This scenario should give the Mane plenty of motivation to go for three kills.– [21 points].

Elijah Carlton (black) – $24 – Moises Carrasco (mma).  Currently, Elijah shows only Moises on his schedule for 11 September.  One match isn’t worth the super-premium price.  [7 points].

Caleb McAllister (black) – $24 – Dallas Sharp (blue), Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue), Moises Carrasco (mma).  I can’t find any info on Moises’ MMA fight (how it went, if he’s healthy, etc.) If all three opponents show, I believe Caleb should secure the 21 points.  Caleb’s skills and pace are hard to match.    [21 points]

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $23 – Mario Gaor (purple), Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple), Robert Gladden (white).  The Elbow Genie was very close to having a phenomenal night.  He started off with a great heel hook off a scramble on Nilo.  At that point, many of us were thinking, uh-oh the Elbow Genie has been sandbagging the league and just waiting to tear limbs off and take that tournament championship.  Then, he got a choke on Libby, only his second kill of the season.  Finally, he almost took the Mane’s leg home in the first 60 seconds of their match.  Elkins stayed composed and found a way to escape, later choking Roberts.  Roberts showed great skill and grit fighting through those competitors. This week’s lineup isn’t as bad for Roberts, he’ll get breaks against Gaor and Gladden.  The Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose match should be very interesting.  Primeau’s been on a mission lately, getting kill after kill.  I think that match could go either way and is definitely one of the matches I’m anticipating the most.  [6 3 points]

Moises Carrasco – $22 – Thursday: Louis Collins (blue), Kevin Primeau (purple), Canaan Brooks (blue); Friday: Elijah Carlton (black), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue), Caleb McAllister (black). ALL SIX MATCHES WILL COUNT TOWARDS THIS WEEKS FANTASY.  As I said before, Moises missed the last week of PGF competing in Strike Hard Productions (SHP) 55. Online it looks like he was competing at 170 lbs in an amateur championship fight.  I can’t find any info to help assess whether he’ll have any effects on his competition this week in the PGF. While having 6 matches makes him very tantalizing and he would seem a no-brainer, look at who Moises is facing.  We don’t have enough tape on Moises against hard competition to pick him over the likes of Elijah, Caleb, and the Pete Rose of the PGF.  Moises should have the strength advantage and MMA experience over his other opponents, but the remainder of his opponents have shown penchants for leg locking.  Of course, Moises is coming off of a training camp (maybe?) for a MMA match.  He could show up in beast mode and wreck a number of his opponents.  He’s a high risk/high reward option for this week. The final question will be when will he be frozen and not allowed on your team?  We can’t freeze all fantasy on Thursday, that would limit the value of the Walo’s McDojo show in picking their fantasy team (they wouldn’t get to) and it would freeze out all less fanatical fans who just make this a quick part of their Friday nights.  Probably too many questions for me to put him on my team or estimate his wins. [?? points] – UPDATE: draw against Primeau. Break against Collins

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $22 – Robert Gladden (white), Michael Libby (blue), Robert Autrey (white), Casey Willbanks (blue).  Talking about challengers for the throne. Nilo has five matches left.  He’s 12 behind Elkins and 16 behind Elijah.  The only challenge he should face is in the last week when he faces Mario Gaor – and Nilo should win that one.  Nilo’s a smart competitor and should be going for all kills to get his shot at the title. Three kills this week. [21 points] PICK OF THE WEEK! – Gladden was a scratch

PREMIUMS

SCRATCH Roger Coelho (black) – OUT FOR SEASON.

Joe “Cobra” Kai (brown) – $20 – Louis Collins (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue), Blake “Wonder Boy” Randall (blue).  I’ve been saying I’m a huge Kai fan all season.  I think everyone else has fallen in line by now.  My estimates for last week’s performance would’ve been spot on had the Scarecrow of Doom continued to show how dang hard it is to submit him.  Kai had the SOD in bad positions almost the entire match but couldn’t secure a choke or break.  This week, Kai should knock out Collins and Brooks with kills.  Both Collins and Brooks are footlockers, but I think Kai can disengage from that game, pass them and choke them out.  The Kai versus Randall match could be very fun to watch.  Randall has shown lots of energy and explosiveness similar to Kai.  Kai has the higher belt ranking.  Randall also has four matches this week, facing Kai in his final match.  While Randall has that youthful vigor, it’ll be interesting to see if he can keep up with Kai after having three previous matches.  Randall forced Elijah, his sensei, to settle for a break; he could do the same to Kai here.  [17 points]

Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (brown) – $18 – SCRATCH DUE TO INJURY, MATCHES MOVED TO THE 18TH. [0 points]

Eric Longar (brown) – $17 – BYE WEEK.  Longar’s had a tough time lately, facing three of the top PGF competitors in his last three matches and being choked each time. The 18th won’t be much better when he’ll face Elijah Carlton (black), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white, but beast), and Joe Kai (brown). [0 points.]

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) – $17 – Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue), Moises Carrasco (mma), Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Keahi Makekau (white). He was my pick of the week for the last two weeks, delivering the highest fantasy score of the season last week.  His performances the last two weeks have catapaulted him from 7th in the conference to 2nd. He’ll get the kills on Geiger and Keahi, but too much is unknown about Moises to make a call.  The Elbow Genie match should be great, too close to call as well.  [14 points].

AVERAGE

Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple), Caleb McAllister (black).  Ouch.  Knee Barrista’s last five matches of the season are all against beasts.  He’s currently ranked 7th in the Eastern conference but could slide out of the tournament if he can’t secure any submissions in his final matches.  He’s going to have to hope for a sneaky knee bar this week, but hope isn’t a course of action. [0 points].

Mario Gaor (purple) – $16 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Keahi Makekau (white), Seth Tatum (blue).  Mario’s got to bring his A game this week.  He’s a great competitor, but I don’t see how he escapes a match with the Elbow Genie with all his limbs.  He’ll get the kill on Keahi, but the match against Tatum should be interesting.  Tatum rose early as a star of the PGF securing a number of kills.  Looking back, most of Tatum’s kills were on blue belts or below.  If Tatum wants to make his case for his purple belt promotion, taking out a purple belt in the form of Mario would really help.  This match should be a great contest.  [7 points].

Seth Tatum (blue) – $16 – Michael Libby (blue), Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown), Mario Gaor (purple).  As stated above, Tatum racked up a lot of kills his first few weeks, then regressed to the mean when facing tougher competition later.  I have to believe Elkins gets the kill on Tatum. Tatum should triangle Libby. The question here is the Mario match.  Gaor’s a gamer.  It will be a real test for Tatum and could help him make the case for his purple belt at the end of the season. If I had to pick, I think Tatum steps up and gets the kill on Mario.  It’s tempting to say he settles for a break, but he hasn’t had a break all season; it’s kill or nothing for Tatum.  [14 points.]

Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – $15 – Mike “Manscape” Richey (white), Moises Carrasco, Josh Diaddario (blue), Joe Kai (brown).  He’s on the bubble, but on the outside looking in currently.  At this point, he’s four points behind the Clay Malone who holds that 8th spot.  Randall is coming off the moral victory of forcing Elijah Carlton (current #1 and his sensei) to walk away with only a break.  He’s also going to have a tough night if all these matches come to fruition.  Manscape is a beast who should be able to mitigate the Boy Wonder’s usual wrestling advantage.  Randall’s giving up too much strength and size for this match.  Look for Randall to go for a quick leg lock against Manscape.  Diaddario has definitely upped his game during the PGF. Still, I have to believe Randall chokes him.  Moises is questionable whether he shows after his MMA fight; we’ll all have to wait to see how healthy he is.  Kai should prove too much for the Boy Wonder.  For as exciting as Randall has been, I’m a little bummed to think he will miss out on the tournament.  He’d be a great option for an exhibition match pitting two fan favorites who missed the tournament against each other. [10 3 points]

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Mike “Manscape” Richey (white).  The last man in the tournament for Western Conference. He got the kill on Smith last week to obtain that spot.  Richey is really hard to submit.  Even though Malone needs the kill, he’ll likely have to settle for a straight ankle lock if he wants to take out one of the strongest competitors in the PGF. [3 points].

Matt Anderson (beast) – $15 – Josh Diaddario (blue), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white), Stephen “Grey Goose” Mitchell (purple), SCRATCHCoehlo. After coming on fire the first few weeks, Manderson has been on a losing streak.  He’s lost his last five matches.  Now, those five included Nilo, Elijah, Mario, and Kai – a murder’s row for sure.  This week’s lineup is much more manageable. As I said last week, I’m really looking forward to Manscape v Manderson.  During week 6, the commentators said Manscape is actually stronger than Manderson.  As Manderson is a national-class powerlifter, I am interested in seeing this matchup.  Is this the Hulk v the Thing matchup I have been anticipating? Manderson gets the break on Manscape. I’m concerned about Diaddario’s leg lock game. Going for Manderson’s legs seems to be key for smaller guys.  Still, I have a feeling Manderson wants to secure his spot in the tournament and muscles his way into three two submissions this week. [12 points]

Noah Randolph (blue) – $15 – SCRATCHBlackburn, Casey Willbanks (blue).  Noah got those of us who were Noah-t afraid 23 points last week (that’s a McDojo Show joke right there, son).  I’ll admit I got luckier than expected when he got two make-up matches for the night to turn what I thought was going to be a 14 point night into a 23 point night.  This week he has a scratch and a solid kill opportunity, but it probably won’t be worth his new price. [9 points]

BELOW AVERAGE

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $14 – Matt Anderson (beast), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue).  Diaddario has shown a lot of improvement during the PGF, but it’s not going to be his week.  Both Anderson and Randall need kills to keep their hopes of the tournament alive. He could pull a sneaky leg lock on Anderson, but I don’t think it’ll happen.  Anderson should be expecting competitors to be targeting his legs by now. [0 points].

Stephen “Grey Goose” Mitchell (purple) – $14 – Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (brown), Matt “Manderson” Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue).  He might have a shot at a leglock on Manderson or Collins, but I don’t think he’s getting any points this week. [0 points].

Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – [Thursday] Moises Carrasco (mma), [Friday] Keahi Makekau (white), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white), Joe Kai (brown), Robert Gladden (white). Five matches in one night.  I’m not sure I buy it.  Still, I think Canaan could get a kill against Keahi.  He’s got a shot at footlocking Richey. Kai will be a learning match as will Moises if he shows.  Canaan could get a footlock on Gladden.  Overall, Canaan could be a good bargain pickup to fill out your roster this week. [7 points].

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $13 – Caleb McAllister (black).  A great opportunity to learn from a black belt this week.  Sharp has a high motor like McAllister so it could be fun to watch.  Still, it’s likely McAllister gets a quick sub. [0 points].

Louis Collins (blue) – $13 – Joe Kai (brown), Moises Carrasco, Stephen “Grey Goose” Mitchell, Mike “Manscape” Richey (white). I’m not sure Collins was fully healed from his injury when he came back last week.  He tapped pretty early to Primeau’s Japanese necktie.  He has two weeks to heal more, but I hope he didn’t tweak his neck during that submission.  Collins seems to like leading with his wrestling, then falling back to leglocks if his wrestling doesn’t work.  Kai and Carrasco will win.  He has a good shot at breaks against the Grey Goose and Richey.  [6 points].

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue), Matt Anderson (beast), Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue), Louis Collins (blue).  Manscape has five matches – that alone merits consideration for a roster spot.  Still, Manscape has only submitted Michael Libby (first week before all the progress we’ve seen over the course of the PGF), Robert Autrey (a white belt), and Casey Willbanks (who only has one win).  Manscape is very hard to submit, with only Nilo and Elijah (two of the top PGF contestants) getting submissions.  So, does Manscape use his wrestling and strength to smash the likes of Randall, Brooks, and Collins, or do those three go after his legs and get breaks?  Who wins “The Strongest PGF Competitor” match between Manscape and Manderson? Will Clay Malone go after that straight ankle lock or feel forced to try for a choke to make the tournament, exposing himself for a submission?  I’m a little frustrated because those 10th Planet Decatur fantasy players likely have a better idea of how these matches will turn out.  Even if I can’t put Manscape on my team, as a fan, I’m definitely looking forward to getting those questions above answered.  [10 points].

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Michael Libby (blue) – $12 – Seth Tatum(blue), Robert Gladden (white), Robert Autrey (white).  Coming off a nice upset last week against the Knee Barrista, Libby could get some momentum going before the getting thrashed by Nilo in his final match of the season.  Tatum’s likely to triangle him or get some other kill.  But Libby could sneak some footlocks on the two remaining Roberts. [6 3 points].

Dennis Smith (white) – $10 – Moises Carrasco (mma).  One match and a tough one if it happens. No go. [0 points].

Robert Autrey (white) – $10 – Casey Willbanks (blue), Nilo Bergener (brown), Michael Libby (blue). Autrey gets the kill on Willbanks.  He loses to Nilo and likely gets footlocked by Libby. [7 points].

Robert Gladden (white) – $10 – Nilo Bergener (brown), Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown), Michael Libby (blue), Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown), Canaan Brooks (blue).  Five matches and three of them are against top competitors in the PGF.  He might have a shot against Libby or Canaan, but I think by the time he faces Canaan, he’ll be worn out and susceptible to a footlock. [0 points].

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $10 – Robert Autrey (white), Noah Randolph (blue), Nilo Bergener (brown). This is Willbanks’ last week.  As a last minute replacement, I have to take my hat off to him.  He stayed the course, going up against competitors with more experience and athleticism.  He never backed down. That’s true grit.  He’ll be better for having participated in this league.  He’s shown true character. Bravo Zulu. [0 points].

Keahi “Mr. Congeniality” Makekau (white) – $10 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown), Canaan Brooks (blue), Mario Gaor (purple), Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple).  Mr. Congeniality is in for a rough week, but he’ll learn a lot. [0 points].

Mike Johnson (purple) – $10 – SCRATCHCoehlo, SCRATCHBlackburn. Unless he gets some makeup matches, last week was Johnson’s last week.  “Success is going from failure to failure without losing your enthusiasm,” according to Winston Churchill.  The British Bulldog would’ve been proud of Johnson’s performance and demeanor during the PGF.  He was always willing to defy the odds and give it his all.  Hat’s off to you.  You’re jiu jitsu game will be much better for this experience.  [0 points].

SCRATCH Ridge Blackburn (black) – Out for season.

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