PGF WEEK 7 FANTASY ANALYSIS

The Fan part of fantasy will be on display this week.  As I mentioned in my Week 7 Preview, we’re in a treat with many exciting matches scheduled.  But, these outstanding, competitive matches make it hard to weigh fantasy values.  Out of the remaining 30 competitors, I think only 12 have any real fantasy value for this week.  For the second week in a row, my pick of the week is Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau.  Yes, the Pete Rose of the PGF and your current fantasy leader only received 16 points last week, but if his third opponent would have showed, I am confident he would’ve got us the 21 points.  At only $16, which is about the average value for a player if you wanted to field a team of five, he’s a bargain.  Just like Pete Rose, he’s sure to bet on himself, so you better as well if you want a chance at catching up to him.  The old standbys of Elijah Carlton and Caleb McAllister should both net 21 points, but you’re paying a pretty penny for those points.  If you put them on your team, you’re almost guaranteed to have to only field a four-man team.  Matt “the Mane” Elkins and Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts cancel each other out this week.  Elbow Genie is always a risky pick as he continues to gravitate to breaks over kills. With the Mane and the Elbow Genie competing, it’s too hard to pick, limiting the value of both.  Nilo “Energizer Bunny” Bergener (just trying the nickname on for size) further degrades the Elbow Genie’s value.  Nilo himself only has one match making him a low point to dollar value, but the match which should be amazing is too close to project.  There’s other matchups on the schedule for which the fan in me is very excited, but the fantasy nerd in me eschews due to the uncertain outcomes.  In the end, the fan will win out.  I’ll plug in my numbers in my excel spreadsheet, pick my team, then forget about it as I watch a great night of jiujitsu.

If you haven’t already, consider supporting Mat Viper, the folks that brought us the PGF rashguards. The official rashguards are available at https://matviper.com/collections/rash-guards/products/pgf-official-blue-rash-guard (you can follow the link to find the orange one).  Since I can’t train currently (stupid Rona), I finally snagged one of their sweet PGF t-shirts – the black one looks “dope” as my teenager would say (https://matviper.com/collections/tops/products/the-official-pgf-t-shirt). Now on to the analysis:

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $25 – Matt Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue).  At this point, it’s just a question of how well Elijah’s opponents acquit themselves when they face the consensus #1 competitor. [21 points].

Caleb McAllister (black) – $24 – Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue).  The Boy Wonder could give him some good engagement, but this night is a good one for Caleb.    [21 points]

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $24 – Eric Longar (brown), Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts.  Some great matches. I think he gets the choke on Longar as he has the size advantage. As for the Elbow Genie, it’s a pick ‘em.– [7 points].

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $24 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown).  Only one match and it’s a blockbuster. As a fan, I’m super excited for this match, but as a fantasy guy Nilo isn’t a viable option this week. [0 points]

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $20 – Nilo Bergener (brown), Michael Libby (blue), Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown). The Elbow Genie has a tough night. These matches are going to be great but not viable for fantasy planning.  [3 points]

PREMIUMS

SCRATCH Roger Coelho (black) – OUT FOR SEASON.

Joe “Cobra” Kai (brown) – $19 – Mike Johnson (purple), Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (brown), Matt Anderson (beast).  I’m a huge Kai fan.  Johnson is a kill. The SOD is TOUGH.  He’s proven very hard to submit, but Dallas Sharp and Matt Elkins found a way.  I have to give Kai the benefit of the doubt on this match.  As for Anderson, Kai is quick, wily, and smart.  He should get on Anderson’s feet and get the break…unless the Manderson grabs him and crushes him. [17 points]

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – Mike “Manscape” Richey (white), Joe Kai (brown), Josh Diaddario (blue).  Manscape is chiseled from granite but can be caught by the SOD in a triangle.  Diaddario will likely have the same fate. [14 points]

Moises Carrasco – $18 – Louis Collins (blue), Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue), Canaan Brooks (blue).  The Boy Wonder could force a draw. Collins and Brooks likely go down. [14 points]

Mario Gaor (purple) – $17 – BYE WEEK.

AVERAGE

Blake “Boy Wonder” Randall (blue) – $16 – Caleb McAllister (black), Moises Carrasco, Elijah Carlton (black).  A murderer’s row for sure.  Boy Wonder is getting smoked this week.  It will be interesting to see him against Elijah, his black belt instructor/coach. [3 points]

Eric Longar (brown) – $16 – Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) and Kevin “Pete Rose” Primeau.  It’s always a bad day when you draw multiple folks with nicknames.  Longar has put together some great weeks, but this week he’s likely to put up a goose egg.  Longar is skilled, but he’s facing skilled opponents that have a good amount of weight on him. [0 points.]

Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Michael Libby (blue).  Knee Barrista gets the sub [3 points].

Kevin “Liquid Terminator/Pete Rose” Primeau (purple) – $16 – Clay Malone (blue), Dallas Sharp (blue), Eric Longar (brown). Another big week for the Pete Rose of the PGF.  If he can’t take out two lower belts from his own gym (also having a lot of weight on Sharp), then he should quit the fantasy league.  He also has the weight advantage on Longar.  Finally, he still is only 7th in the Western Conference. He needs to ensure these wins are kills to cement his place in the tournament.  [21 points]. PICK OF THE WEEK!!!

Matt Anderson (beast) – $16 – Elijah Carlton (black), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white), Joe Kai (brown). Another murderer’s row – Manderson has a tall task ahead of him.  He has to keep Kai off his legs, which many believe is his kryptonite. As for Elijah, it’s just a question of what type of showing he gives before submitting. I’m really looking forward to Manscape v Manderson.  During week 6, the commentators said Manscape is actually stronger than Manderson.  As Manderson is a national-class powerlifter, I am interested in seeing this matchup.  Is this the Hulk v the Thing matchup I have been anticipating? Manderson gets the break on Manscape. [3 points]

Seth Tatum (blue) – $16 BYE WEEK.

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Kevin “Pete Rose” Primeau (purple), Dennis Smith (white), Caleb McAllister (black).  This week is a tough draw for Malone. He’ll have some familiarity with Primeau, but will likely fall to old Pete Rose and Caleb.  I’m guessing he ankle locks Smith. [3 points].

SCRATCH Ridge Blackburn (black) – Out for season.

BELOW AVERAGE

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $14 – Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (purple), Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (brown).  He gets the choke on Johnson, but loses to the SOD.  As for Noah, I hope Noah gets the sub, but this match could end in a tie. [7 points].

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $13 – Kevin “Pete Rose” Primeau (purple), Dennis Smith (white).  He loses to Primeau but takes out Smith.  I believe he’s giving up weight, but he’s very athletic and a gamer for sure. [7 points].

Louis Collins (blue) – $13 – Moises Carrasco, Elijah Carlton (black), Mike “Manscape” Richey (white). We’ll see if Louis comes back after his injury made him pull out of week 6. These matchups are not what you want for your week back. [0 points].

Michael Libby (blue) – $13 – Jeremy “Knee Barrista” Geiger (blue), Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown).  As mentioned above, it’s not a good day when you face multiple opponents with solid nicknames.  Libby has shown some good work in the last few weeks, but I think he takes two L’s this week. [0 points].

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – Matt “Scarecrow of Doom” Harrison (brown), Matt Anderson (beast), Louis Collins (blue).  I think Manscape is going to put on some great matches, but I don’t think we can trust him to deliver fantasy points.  He’s been noted as one of the hardest competitors to submit in the league.  [0 points].

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 – Josh Diaddario (blue), Stephen “Grey Goose” Mitchell (purple).  Noah gets two chokes, but I’m a big Noah fan so I might be jaded. [14 points]

Stephen “Grey Goose” Mitchell (purple) – $13 – SCRATCHBlackburn, Noah Randolph (blue), Mike Johnson (purple).  The Grey Goose gets his second choke and third submission against Mike Johnson. He gets the two points for the scratch, but loses to Noah. [9 points].

Canaan Brooks (blue) – $12 – Dennis Smith (white), Caleb McAllister (black), Moises Carrasco.  Canaan is coming off a very strong week 6 performance.  However, he’s going to have a tough time going against two of the top competitors in the PGF.  I’m betting Canaan gets a break on Smith, but loses to the top competitors. [3 points].

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Robert Autrey (white) – $12 – Robert Gladden (white). Pick’em match. [0 points].

Dennis Smith (white) – $11 Canaan Brooks (blue), Clay Malone (blue), Dallas Sharp (blue).  I don’t think it’s a good week for Smith. [0 points].

Robert Gladden (white) – $11 – Casey Willbanks (blue), Robert Autrey (white).  This week could be good for Gladden.  If you have $11 after picking others, you might want to add him. [6 points].

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $10 – SCRATCHCoehlo, Robert Gladden (white), SCRATCHBlackburn.  If you have $10 left, it’s a good week to pick up Willbanks. You get four points from the two scratches and has a shot at a submission against Gladden. [4 points].

Keahi Makekau (white) – $10 – BYE WEEK. Mike Johnson (purple) – $10 – Joe Kai(brown), Josh Diaddario (blue), Stephen Mitchell (purple). Tough week for Johnson.  [0 points].

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