PGF Week 4 Fantasy Analysis – updated with results

SUPER PREMIUMS (you’re going to offset the expense)

Elijah Carlton (black) – $26 – likely 2 kills (14 points) [only 2 fights] – HE GOT 10 POINTS, KILLING DIADDARIO AND BREAKING MANSCAPE

Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown) – $23 – faces Matt SOD Harrison (brown); Louis Collins (blue belt); Matt Anderson (monster) – he could get three kills. Worried about Matt Anderson getting him while he’s tired. If Nilo doesn’t footlock/heelhook him early, it could be a rough match. Anderson has 40 lbs on him.  SOD could pull an upset. It would be interesting as both like to sit guard. – 3 kills (high risk/high reward)  [21 points] –  HE GOT 10 POINTS, COULDN’T SUBMIT THE SOD AND HAD TO SETTLE FOR A BREAK AGAINST COLLINS. HIS CARDIO WAS IMPRESSIVE AS HE STILL HAD PLENTY OF ENERGY FACING ANDERSON

Roger Coelho (black) – $22 – Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple); Caleb McAllister (black); Dennis Smith (white) – one sure kill; the other two are tough; guessing 1 kill; 1 break. Loss to Caleb [10 points]  – DID NOT SHOW

PREMIUMS

Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown) – $19 – Clay Malone (blue); Dallas Sharp (blue); Eric Longar (brown) – Downside estimate – three breaks (c’mon he’s the Elbow Genie) for 9 points. Upside, you throw in at least one kill and you have [13 points]. Some might think he’ll bow to the point system, but I’m guessing he might just joint lock his way easily to the tournament. At the tournament, all submissions are equal and the Elbow Genie could reign supreme. – HE GOT THREE BREAKS FOR 9 POINTS, SEEMS LIKE A TREND HERE. WILL HE BREAK DOWN (PUN INTENDED) AND CHOKE SOMEONE IN THE REGULAR SEASON?

Caleb McAllister (black) – $19 – Josh Diaddario (blue); Stephen Mitchell (purple); Roger Coehlo (black) – I’m calling it now, 3 kills. 21 points. Best play of the “premium” players. – CHOKED MITCHELL, BROKE DIADDARIO, AND GOT 2 POINTS FOR ROGER’S NO SHOW – FOR 12 POINTS

Seth Tatum (blue) – $18 – Blake Randall (blue belt, but deadly); Canaan Brooks (blue belt); Clay Malone (blue) – Blue belt battles this week for Seth Tatum. I’ll give him two kills [14 points], but I’m guessing the Randall matchup goes to a tie. I could be wrong; he could get 3 kills. His size and length could be too much for Randall, but he’s taken down bigger guys. – GOT THE KILL AGAINST RANDALL, GOT 2 FOR CANAAN’S NO SHOW, STALEMATED MALONE FOR 9 POINTS.

Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown) – $18 – Nilo the Mop Bergener (brown); Michael Libby (blue); Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – The SOD could pull the upset against the Mop, but I don’t see it happening.  The best outcome likely is gutting out a tie. Michael Libby is a kill. But, the SOD vs the Mane is tough. Elkins has serious wrestling, size, and scrambling (did you see his match against Roger Coehlo?). I think one kill is a safe bet here, but he could catch Elkins. 7 points. – FOUGHT NILO TO A TIE, CHOKED LIBBY, BUT WAS CHOKED BY ELKINS – 7 POINTS.

Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown) – $18 – Mike Johnson(purple); Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown). Elkins gets the choke/kill on Johnson for seven points. The Mane vs the SOD is a tough call.  The SOD is crafty and loves to pull guard, mitigating Elkins’ wrestling. I think the Mane vs the SOD is a toss-up. 7 points. – ELKINS CHOKED BOTH OPPONENTS FOR 14 POINTS. HE’S GOING TO BE A POPULAR PICK GOING FORWARD AS LONG AS HIS PRICE DOESN’T SKYROCKET.

Ridge Blackburn (black) – $17 – Mario Gaor(purple); Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple); Dennis Smith (white). Ridge had high expectations coming into the league, but has run into some rough competition, losing to The Mane via guillotine; The Mop via armbar and the Elbow Genie via heel hook.  Given his predilection to lose to competitors with legit nicknames, I’m expecting Ridge to earn two kills [14 points] but have problems with the Liquid Terminator. INJURED AND OUT FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE

Moises Carrasco – $17 – Josh Diaddario (blue); Stephen Mitchell (purple). Working with only a four match sample size, there could be some error in this analysis. Moises has MMA experience. In his one televised match, he showed patience and a nice transition back and forth from Darce to guillotine chokes. He likely gets two kills [14 points] versus two sub .500 opponents. – LAST SECOND PICK WHEN I LEARNED RIDGE WAS OUT. HE GOT THE CHOKE AGAINST DIADDARIO BUT HAD TO SETTLE FOR A BREAK AGAINST MITCHELL FOR 10 POINTS.

AVERAGE

Kevin “Liquid Terminator” Primeau (purple) – $16 – Roger Coehlo (black); Ridge Blackburn (black). Someone doesn’t like the Liquid Terminator this week.  Pulling only two matches and both against black belts. The Liquid Terminator is fierce but not a sure thing to get any points this week. He could go T2000 and knock off two black belts, but it’s more likely he shows grit and ties them both. [0 points] – BOTH HIS OPPONENTS DID NOT SHOW SO HE RECEIVED 4 POINTS.

Joe “the Comedian” Kai (brown) – $16 – no matches until August 14th.

Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue) – $16 – Dallas Sharp (blue); Eric Longar (brown); Casey Willbanks (blue) – The Kneebar Knight with his collegiate wrestling and size is intriguing here. Casey Willbanks is likely a kill (but he’s getting amazing experience even competing, I’d kill to live in the area). I’m going to give the Kneebar Knight either a break on Sharp or Longar, for a total of [10 points]. Longar, though a brown belt, has had problems giving up this much weight difference previously.  Sharp is a very athletic gymnast and has likely rolled with Geiger many, many times, so they may know each other’s attacks enough to get a draw. – HE GOT THE KILL ON LONGAR AND 2 POINTS FOR WILLBANKS NO SHOW BUT STALEMATE AGAINST SHARP FOR 9 POINTS.

Eric Longar (brown) – $16 – Casey Willbanks (blue); Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (blue); Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown). Longar gets one kill (Willbanks), loses to Elbow Genie, and either ties or loses to Kneebar Knight. [7 points] – RECEIVED 2 POINTS FOR WILLBANKS NO SHOW, BUT WAS SUBMITTED BY OTHER OPPONENTS FOR 2 POINTS TOTAL

Blake Randall (blue) – $16 – Seth Tatum (blue); Robert Gladden (white); Robert Autrey (white). I’ll guarantee at least two breaks with an upside of two kills and a break.  Gladden has the size advantage, but Randall has great wrestling and cardio. Autrey should’ve been finished by Noah last week, but gutted out the tie. I think Randall takes out the two Roberts.  Seth Tatum is the real challenge.  Tatum’s length and skill could be a challenge – likely no points for Randall. Randall has seemed to be a break specialist, but I’ll go on a limb and say two kills [14 points].  – HE GOT ONE KILL FOR 7 POINTS

Matt Anderson (beast) – $15 – Robert Autrey (white); Michael Libby (blue); Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown). Anderson came back to earth last week with only one kill and two ties.  As mentioned above, he could give the Mop some problems as he’ll be Nilo’s third match and has conservatively a 20 lb weight advantage (and Anderson is very strong for his size if you listen to the Grappling Discourse podcast). Regardless, it’s not a good bet to say Anderson gets any points out of a match with Nilo.  But facing Autrey and Libbey (both winless), you have to think Anderson gets two kills [14 points]. – HE GOT THE TWO KILLS EXPECTED FOR 14 POINTS

Mario Gaor (purple) – $15 – Ridge Blackburn (black); Mike Johnson (purple). Mario has had a rough lineup, losing to three blackbelts and an MMA fighter. I don’t like his chances against another blackbelt.  On the upside, Mike Johnson is in the cellar of the division, so he could be a kill. [7 points] – HE GOT THE ONE KILL AND 2 POINTS FOR RIDGE NOT SHOWING SO 9 POINTS

Clay Malone (blue) – $15 – Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown); Seth Tatum (blue); Keahi Makekau (white). Malone has an uphill battle against the Elbow Genie and Seth Tatum – two top 10 players.  Keahi, who has lost to everyone except the winless Mike Johnson, is his win for the night, likely with a kill. [7 points] – HE GOT THE EXPECTED KILL FOR 7 POINTS.

BELOW AVERAGE

Stephen Mitchell (purple) – $14 – Dennis Smith (white); Caleb McAllister (black); Moises Carrasco (mma, brown or black). Stephen has a tough night with Caleb and Moises, likely facing two losses. Dennis has the collegiate wrestling and size advantage, but Mitchell has the technique.  Mitchell and Smith faced the same opponent in Mario Gaor. Mario choked Dennis but tied Mitchell. I might give Mitchell the kill here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with a tie and no points on the night. [0 points]- NO SUBMISSIONS

Noah Randolph (blue) – $13 – On bye week. Which is good because he’s a fierce competitor you want to champion, but he hasn’t put up the fantasy points.  He’s going to be a bad man the next time his weight class’s season rolls around. BYE WEEK

Mike “Manscape” Richey (white) – $13 – Elijah Carlton (black), Casey Willbanks (blue). Manscape loses to Elijah, but kills Willbanks. [7 points] MANSCAPE GOT 2 POINTS FOR WILLBANKS NOT SHOWING.

Louis Collins (blue) – $13 – Robert Gladden (white); Robert Autrey (white); Nilo “the Mop” Bergener (brown). Collins has three victories, against two blue belts and a white belt. He’s got wrestling and leg locks. I could see two leg locks out of this lineup. [6 points] – HE EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS, GETTING A KILL AND A BREAK FOR 10 POINTS.

Josh Diaddario (blue) – $13 – Caleb McAllister (black); Moises Carrasco; Elijah Carlton (black). This week is an awesome opportunity for Diaddario to roll against some serious talent. [0 points] – NO SUBMISSIONS FOR 0 POINTS.

Dallas Sharp (blue) – $13 – Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue); Jonathan “Elbow Genie” Roberts (brown); Keahi Makekau (white). Sharp’s a superior athlete, but giving up size to the Kneebar Knight (loss). If the Elbow Genie doesn’t take Sharp’s arm home with him, Sharp could get a kill against Keahi. [7 points] – HE GOT THE EXPECTED KILL FOR 7 POINTS.

Canaan Brooks (blue) – $13 – Keahi Makekau (white); Seth Tatum (blue); Robert Gladden (white). Canaan only has one win.  He’s been trying to play the leg game, but with only one success.  I’m thinking this week may be his time to shine – two breaks [6 points]. – DID NOT SHOW

PENNY STOCKS (NOT LIKELY TO MAKE YOU MUCH, BUT IF YOU HAVE MONEY LEFT IN YOUR POCKET…)

Robert Gladden (white) – $12 – Louis Collins (blue); Blake Randall (blue); Canaan Brooks (blue). Gladden looks really strong, but susceptible to small, wily guys (see Diaddario match). Collins, Brooks, and Randall I believe all have leg attack submissions in the PGF.  Gladden may have issues fending these off. He may outperform this eval, but I’m judging [0 points]. – HE RECEIVED 2 POINTS FOR CANAAN’S NO SHOW

Keahi Makekau (white) – $12 – Canaan Brooks (blue); Dallas Sharp (blue); Clay Malone (blue). This may be Keahi’s most fair week – no black belts, etc. I know Keahi has a huge following, but I can’t bet on him this week. [0 points] – HE RECEIVED 2 POINTS FOR CANAAN’S NO SHOW.

Dennis Smith (white) – $12 – Stephen Mitchell (purple); Ridge Blackburn (black); Roger Coelho (black). Dennis might have a chance to bully Stephen with his size and collegiate wrestling, but I don’t see him getting any points this week. [0 points] – NO SUBMISSIONS FOR 0 POINTS

Casey Willbanks (blue) – $12 – Eric Longar (brown); Mike “Manscape” Richey (white); Jeremy “Kneebar Knight” Geiger (Blue). It’s going to be a long night for Casey Willbanks, but it’ll make him better. [0 points] – DID NOT SHOW FOR 0 POINTS.

Robert Autrey (white) – $11 – Matt Anderson (beast); Louis Collins (blue); Blake Randall (blue). Autrey is winless. Collins would be his best shot, but Collins has three victories. [0 points] – NO SUBS FOR 0 POINTS.

Mike Johnson (purple) – $11 – Michael Libby (blue); Matt “the Mane” Elkins (brown); Mario Gaor (purple).  Mike Johnson could get his first win against Michael Libby, but they’re both winless. [3 points] – NO SUBS FOR  0 POINTS.

Michael Libby (blue) – $10 – Matt “Scarecrow of Death” Harrison (brown); Matt Anderson (beast); Mike Johnson. Libby has been submitted by all his opponents. While Mike Johnson is also winless, he’s a purple belt, so Libby is likely to remain winless. [0 points] – HE GOT A BREAK AGAINST JOHNSON FOR 3 POINTS.

UPDATE: Ridge Blackburn is out. Switch to Moises.

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